The fault lines that will shape the GOP debate

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Aug 23, 2023 View in browser   By Charlie Mahtesian and Calder McHugh Fiserv Forum, the site of the first Republican presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. | Francis Chung/POLITICO DAIRYLAND DONNYBROOK — When eight Republican candidates gather tonight on Fox News for the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle, there are sure to be some themes that permeate the evening: Biden is too old. The border isn’t secure. The removal of troops from Afghanistan was a disaster. Prices remain too high. In general, we can’t afford four more years of those damn Democrats and their woke politics. Where the candidates diverge on policy, and what it reveals about their candidacies, is what will make the night interesting. Each has a limited amount of time to make an impression on GOP primary voters; for some of the contenders, the two hours of primetime television is the only real opportunity they’ll get. The stakes are arguably highest for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose campaign has floundered so far amid high expectations — the Milwaukee debate is a chance to remind his party why he was so highly touted to begin with. DeSantis and others will also need to be prepared to deal with the specter of Donald Trump. The former president, the front runner by a wide margin, refused to participate in the debate but will undoubtedly be central to the discussion. Here are a few of the fault lines to keep an eye on tonight. Abortion: Abortion was the issue that defined the 2022 cycle, and is already playing a role in 2024. Every Republican candidate on the debate stage opposes abortion rights, the questions at hand now include the possibility of a national ban and the number of weeks at which there should be an abortion cutoff point. Most Republicans on the debate stage have remained noncommittal on a full national ban, other than former Vice President Mike Pence, who has argued that all candidates in the field should pledge to support at the very least a 15-week national ban (while remaining open to something stricter) and that abortion opponents “must not rest” until it’s banned nationwide. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has also called for a 15-week national ban after some early hesitation. On the other side of the field is former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who says he opposes a national ban unless the states can reach a “consensus,” meaning all 50 states passing abortion bans. Then, there’s DeSantis and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who have both signed highly restrictive bans in their own states; DeSantis signed a six-week total ban in Florida, and Burgum signed a near total ban that makes exceptions only for rape and incest and only in the first six weeks of a pregnancy. But Burgum has outright said it should be a decision for the states, while DeSantis has dodged questions on whether he supports a national ban. Ukraine: When it comes to foreign policy, the field agrees that China is the number one threat. But on Ukraine, there are fissures between those who embrace a more traditionalist GOP view of the U.S. role and the anti-interventionists, who are more closely in tune with polling indicating that Republican voters are not in favor of the authorization of new funding. Christie and Pence are the only two to have visited Ukraine since the Russian invasion, so expect them to explain their support for continued military aid through the lens of their meetings with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Christie might also use the opportunity to whack DeSantis on the issue. The Florida governor faced considerable blowback earlier this year after describing the war in Ukraine as a mere “territorial dispute;” Christie piled on by comparing DeSantis’ stance to Neville Chamberlain, the Hitler-appeasing British prime minister. The Ukraine issue also offers Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, a chance to distinguish herself on a stage filled with rivals without much foreign affairs experience. A commanding response here will also give her a chance to get some distance from her former boss, who hasn’t offered serious answers on the war to date — he has simply declared that he would end the war “within 24 hours”. While Haley calls for continued assistance and for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO now, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy sets the edge — he opposes military aid and says he would seek an agreement in which Ukraine concedes territory in exchange for Russia breaking with China. What to do about Donald: There’s no getting around it: while the former president will be absent from the stage, his presence will be everywhere. There are questions to be answered about the future of the party — and the loss of the House, Senate and White House on Trump’s watch. There is the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection. The phony election fraud claims that have divided the party. The 91 criminal counts Trump faces. To date, most — though not all — of the field has adopted a shrugged shoulders or mildly reproaching approach to the question of Trump’s culpability on any of these issues. But if they’re truly committed to winning the nomination — as opposed to auditioning for a role in the next Trump administration — they need to articulate and vigorously prosecute the argument as to why Trump cannot win in 2024. And they must do it without alienating the many primary voters who continue to hold Trump in high regard. The debate will be an exercise in walking that fine line for some, and an opportunity to burnish their pro-Trump credentials for others. When Trump was indicted in Florida, Ramaswamy traveled to Miami to express his support for Trump and argue that all 2024 candidates should pledge to pardon Trump were he to be convicted. For his part, DeSantis — whom Trump has attacked mercilessly — has said Jan. 6 was “not an insurrection” and he has signaled that he would pardon Trump if given the opportunity. On the other end of the Trump continuum, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson says that even one of Trump’s indictments should disqualify him from being president. He’s been one of Trump’s sharpest critics, along with Christie. But there may not be room for an anti-Trumper in the primary — let alone two of them. Tonight’s debate will begin that winnowing process. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s authors at cmahtesian@politico.com and cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @PoliticoCharlie and @calder_mchugh. PROGRAMMING NOTE: Nightly will not be publishing from Aug. 28 through Sept. 4. We’ll be back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Sept. 5.   DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO APP: Stay in the know with the POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID.     What'd I Miss? — South Carolina’s highest court reverses course on abortion, upholding strict 6-week ban: South Carolina’s Supreme Court reversed today upheld a ban on abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy. The 4-1 ruling departs from the court’s own decision earlier this year to strike down a similar law. The continued erosion of legal abortion access across the U.S. South comes after Republican state lawmakers replaced the lone female on the court, Justice Kaye Hearn. Writing for the new majority, Justice John Kittredge acknowledged that the 2023 law infringes on “a woman’s right of privacy and bodily autonomy,” but said the state legislature reasonably determined this time around that those interests don’t outweigh “the interest of the unborn child to live.” — Georgia prosecutor urges federal judge to leave Trump racketeering case in state court: Prosecutors in Georgia today sharply rejected efforts by two former officials in the Trump administration — Mark Meadows and Jeffrey Clark — to derail the criminal proceedings against them in Fulton County, where they’re charged alongside former President Donald Trump in a sprawling case accusing them of racketeering and other crimes for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Meadows and Clark had both pleaded with an Atlanta-based federal judge, Steve Jones, to prohibit District Attorney Fani Willis from arresting them this week by a Friday deadline for the 19 defendants to turn themselves in. Both men say their cases should be handled — and ultimately dismissed — by federal courts because of their work for the Trump administration. — Biden to name first drugs for Medicare negotiations early next week: The Biden administration is expected to disclose early next week the first 10 prescription drugs selected for Medicare price negotiations, ahead of a White House event Tuesday to celebrate the milestone, four people involved in the plans told POLITICO. The announcement will mark a major step in a bid to lower drug prices through the first-ever direct negotiations between Medicare and pharmaceutical manufacturers over a set of medicines. Biden health officials are expected to reveal the initial list before the stock market opens Tuesday morning, because the impact on publicly traded companies that make any drugs on the list could affect their stock prices during trading. Nightly Road to 2024 DEBATE SCOUTING REPORT — Ron DeSantis needs to dodge his rivals’ arrows. Vivek Ramaswamy needs a breakout moment to sustain his recent bump in the polls. And Chris Christie needs somehow to convince Republicans it’s time to move on from Donald Trump. The former president won’t be on the debate stage tonight, denying his opponents the opportunity to knock him down. But Trump’s absence could also present an opportunity for someone else to leave the stage riding a wave of momentum into the fall, POLITICO reports. BLOCK OR CHARGE? — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum injured his leg on Tuesday and may not be able to stand at the GOP presidential debate tonight, a spokesperson confirmed to POLITICO. The governor was injured while playing a game of pickup basketball in Milwaukee and went to the emergency room, spokesperson Lance Trover said. GOP AD WARS — Americans who don’t live in early presidential nominating states — that is to say, most Americans — might not be aware of t he advertising wars already underway in the 2024 campaign. For months, Republican candidates have been on the airwaves, plugging away at themes we are likely to see more of during the party’s high-stakes first debate, write the New York Times. This year, they face an unusual challenge: Former President Donald J. Trump has effectively taken on the role of an incumbent. The rest of the candidates have spent tens of millions of dollars to introduce themselves to primary voters, stake out policy positions and chart a course to the general election — only to be overshadowed by Trump. WHAT IT TAKES, THE SEQUEL — Vivek Ramaswamy starts talking and he doesn’t stop. He once did some 30 interviews in one day alone, and has appeared on more than 150 podcasts since launching his campaign in February, reports POLITICO. Today is a “light day” he and his team tell me. He would end up sitting for roughly five hours of interviews. He is only scheduled for: two podcasts; a sit down with ABC; a conversation with a radio station out of Myrtle Beach, S.C.; an interview with Axios’ local Columbus website; an evening standup with NewsNation; and appearances on Fox News and CNN. That’s not to mention the two interviews he granted me while we drove around his hometown in his black Cadillac Escalade and a third interview in his backyard that evening as his youngest son Arjun played underfoot. This is what it takes to go from zero percent in the GOP primary polls in February to 7 percent today. That puts him — at 38, the youngest presidential candidate in the field — solidly in third place. He’ll be at center stage at tonight’s first GOP debate, and if memos on Ron DeSantis’ strategy and pre-debate attacks from Mike Pence and Nikki Haley are any indication, all knives will be out for the political newcomer.   Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of the first episodes in September – click here.     AROUND THE WORLD Yevgeny Prigozhin in April. Today, two months after his failed coup, Prigozhin died after his private jet crashed. | AP Photo/File WAGNER CHIEF DEAD — Exactly two months after his failed coup, Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin died today after his private jet crashed in flames on an internal flight within Russia, POLITICO reports. Speculation is rife that Russian President Vladimir Putin — who is notoriously unforgiving of traitors and accused Prigozhin of “treason” in June — ordered the downing of the aircraft. It comes only a day after Russian media announced the firing of Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, who has not been seen in public since the aborted Wagner coup. A former loyalist who was dubbed “Putin’s chef” for his role as a catering executive supplying the Kremlin, Prigozhin became embittered toward the Russian government’s handling of the war. In late June, his uprising commanded 24-hour global coverage after he seized the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and ordered a column of troops toward Moscow. Nightly Number $4.5 million The amount of money in legal fees that the Florida state board that controls the land housing Walt Disney World expects to spend in legal fees next year following a high-profile battle between the entertainment giant and Gov. Ron DeSantis. That’s more than triple what the district — which is controlled by the DeSantis administration — spent before the feud began. RADAR SWEEP EYE ON THE PRIZE — For decades, Taiwan has been experiencing a nearsightedness epidemic that’s only gotten worse. Now, that problem appears to be spreading globally, with rates of nearsightedness moving up dramatically in many places. But there’s one Taiwanese eye surgeon named Pei-Chang Wu, who’s performed hundreds of eye operations at a hospital in southern Taiwan and who is trying to figure out why more people are quickly losing their eyesight — and what we can do about it. As the issue spreads globally, Wu’s work takes on increasing importance. Amit Katwala reports on the epidemic and Wu for WIRED. Parting Image On this date in 1990: A man tries to extinguish his shack which was set alight during faction fighting in the townships around Johannesburg, South Africa. Over 500 people were reported killed in an 11 day period in the region. | John Parkin/AP Photo Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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