Friday, August 18, 2023

💪High Enough, But Nowhere Near Long Enough

Good morning. The Fed's latest meeting minutes indicated the possibility of further rate hikes...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The Fed's latest meeting minutes indicated the possibility of further rate hikes this year. That's certainly a possibility. But with Fed members starting to disagree on the point, chances are the most likely result is that inaction will set in. That leaves us now in the "longer" part of the "higher for longer" interest rate cycle we're in.

The market has largely adjusted to the rate hikes already. Consumers are holding up well, as is the labor market. That suggests we're seeing the start of a soft landing that could take markets to new highs over time.

It also means that interest rates are likely nearing their peak for this cycle, if they're not already there. That makes fixed-income attractive here, as well as stocks that are tied to interest rates such as real estate investment trusts or utilities. Both sectors are starting to look like a contrarian buy now.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 34,474.83 -0.84%
S&P 4,370.36 -0.77%
NASDAQ 13,316.93 -1.17%
*As of market close
Markets continued lower on Thursday, adding to losses for the week.
Oil rose 0.9 percent, closing at $80.12 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.5 percent, last going for $1,919 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies slid lower, with bitcoin at $27,843 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Interest Rate Fears Make this Opportunity Attractive
The latest Fed meeting minutes suggest the central bank may continue to raise interest rates. However, the steady increases of the past year are over. With interest rates likely near, if not at, their cycle peak, some investments look better than others.

Fixed income could perform well here, as prices on assets like bonds will rise as interest rates move lower. But it's also likely that we've seen the worst of the selloff in defensive parts of the market, such as utility stocks.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Lyft (LYFT)
John Risher, CEO at Lyft (LYFT), recently bought 100,000 shares. The buy increased his stake by 1 percent, and came to a total cost of $1.15 million.

He was joined by a company director who bought 8,826 shares, increasing his stake by  28 percent, and paying just under $100,000. These are the only insider buys at Lyft over the past two years. There have been nearly two dozen sales from directors and executives over the past two years.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Suncor Energy (SU)
Oil and gas exploration and production company Suncor Energy (SU) is slightly down over the past year as energy prices have moderated. One trader sees shares trending higher into the end of the year.

That's based on the December $34 calls. With 119 days until expiration, 45,164 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 317, for a 142-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $1.27 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
New Home Construction Rose in July

Housing starts increased by 6.7 percent in July, as builders ramped up production over the sunny summer months. Home affordability remains a problem with today's high interest rates. And those high rates are inducing homeowners who locked in low rates to sit tight, which has kept the housing supply tight.
Bond Yields Hit Highest Levels Since 2008

10-year U.S. Treasury notes have risen to over 4 percent, hitting their highest levels in 15 years in 2008. Traders have largely spent the year expecting interest rates to come down. However, the latest Fed meeting minutes show that the central bank could raise interest rates further in the months ahead, which is leading traders to bet on a further rise in bond yields.
Fed Sees "Upside Risks" to Inflation

The latest meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve indicated that officials were divided as to further rate hikes overall. However, the bank noted that more rate hikes could be necessary unless inflation starts to cool. Markets had expected the most recent rate hike, leaving rates at 5.25-5.5 percent, to be the final hike of this cycle.
Gump's Could Close Iconic San Francisco Location

Luxury department store Gump's has stated that they may be in their last year of operations, given deteriorating conditions in downtown San Francisco. The store was founded in 1861, and was acquired by its most recent owner following a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in 2018.
CATL Reveals Fast-Charging Battery

Chinese battery company CATL has revealed its Shenxing battery. The new battery can refuel up to 250 miles of range in just 10 minutes, solving one of the big problems facing electric vehicles today. The battery maker is a major supplier to the industry, particularly Tesla Motors (TSLA).

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
MRNA 7.157%
CSCO 3.559%
PFE 3.171%
JNPR 2.839%
EMN 2.491%
BOTTOM
CVS 8.353%
CI 6.226%
CDAY 5.947%
RMD 5.101%
DHI 4.801%

Quote of the Day
Markets continue to sell off as the Fed minutes underscore that the economic backdrop needs to pull back so that demand softens accordingly. Recent third-quarter GDP estimates, coupled with fresh retail sales data, suggest a much more robust underpinning to the economy, certainly not what the Fed wants to see as they navigate the so-called 'last mile' towards achieving price stability.
- Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, on Wednesday's Fed meeting minutes, and why interest rates may continue to move higher in the coming months, which could continue to weigh on stocks.

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