| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | If at first you don’t succeed, run for Congress again. That’s the adage more than a dozen 2022 losers are following this cycle. Hotly contested battleground House seats across the country are poised to be just as competitive next year, as many general election runners-up have mounted comeback bids less than a year after their losses. “I don’t think there’s any doubt that there are more repeat candidates running in this cycle than there have been in prior cycles,” said Dan Sena, a Democratic strategist and former DCCC executive director. He added that when there are as many close losses as there were in 2022, “that naturally is going to create momentum, and a reason for an awful lot of these candidates to think about it and sort of put their toe back in the water.” Many of those repeat hopefuls are Democrats. A handful have already announced their campaigns in Republican-held districts that their party is targeting, including Kirsten Engel in AZ-06; Will Rollins in CA-41; Adam Frisch in CO-03; Tony Vargas in NE-02; Laura Gillen in NY-04; Josh Riley in NY-19; Ashley Ehasz in PA-01; Shamaine Daniels in PA-10; and Michelle Vallejo in TX-15.
|  Democratic CO-03 candidate Adam Frisch's campaign said he brought in $2.6 million in the second fundraising quarter. | David Zalubowski/AP Photo | On average, those candidates lost by around 5 points last year. President Joe Biden won most of those districts in 2020. On the right, repeat candidates in districts national Republicans have their sights on include former Rep. Yvette Herrell in NM-02; Mark Robertson in NV-01; Joe Kent in WA-03 and Sandy Smith in NC-01. Republican Scott Baugh, who came three points away from toppling Democratic Rep. Katie Porter in CA-47 last year, is another big name to watch. His campaign for the now-open seat said it has brought in more than $1 million since its launch in January, and he has the backing of top Republican House leadership. There are plenty of other familiar names to keep an eye on in the coming months. Former GOP Rep. Mayra Flores she’ll “make a decision soon” about if she’s going to try to claim TX-34 back from Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez after losing by around 8 points last year. Michigan Republican Tom Barrett on Sunday launched his bid for MI-07 — a district that’s now open as Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin runs for Senate. Barrett lost by around 5 points in an incredibly expensive race last year. California Democrats Adam Gray — who lost CA-13 to Republican Rep. John Duarte in one of the closest House races last year — and Rudy Salas — who lost to Republican Rep. David Valadao in CA-22 — both filed to run again. But neither have made official announcements. The same goes for Michigan Democrat Carl Marlinga, who said in May that he’s “still considering” another run after losing to Republican Rep. John James by less than a point in MI-10. Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who came 2 points away from defeating Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in OR-05, was set to hold a rally over the weekend for a campaign announcement. But that was delayed to later this month after McLeod-Skinner tested positive for Covid-19. She announced her run on Monday morning. Even if these one-time losers run again, a general election rematch isn’t guaranteed. There are still primaries to get through. But there are benefits to running again, including an existing infrastructure — like fundraising lists — that the campaign can rely on. Take Frisch, who’s running against Rep. Lauren Boebert after losing in the closest race of 2022. His campaign said he brought in a whopping $2.6 million in the second fundraising quarter. Rollins, who’s running against Republican Rep. Ken Calvert again, raised over $875,000 in the first six weeks of his campaign, according to fundraising numbers first shared with POLITICO. His campaign said it set an off-year, California record for a challenger's first quarter haul. But the difficult part comes during the “second half of the campaign,” Sena said. That’s when candidates have to articulate the answers to: “Why are you running again? What has been refined in your messaging? How have things changed?” The stench of losing, in short, sometimes is hard to wash away. Happy Monday. Are you working on a campaign that should be on my radar? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Mississippi primary: 29 Days until the RI-01 and UT-02 special election primaries: 57 Days until the Louisiana primary: 96 Days until the 2023 election: 120 Days until the Republican National Convention: 371 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 406 Days until the 2024 election: 484
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| | EYES ON IOWA — Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses will take place on Jan. 15, 2024. That’s on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and is about three weeks earlier than the past two primary cycles. Our Steve Shepard breaks down what the rest of the early-state nominating calendar could look like. DONOR DASH — “Top Republican National Committee officials have been privately laying out the donor thresholds for the first three debates to campaigns,” Axios’ Sophia Cai writes. They are: 40,000 donors for the first August debate in Wisconsin; 50,000 donors for the California debate in September; and 60,000 donors for the Alabama debate in October. SOUNDING THE ALARM — “Officials from the progressive group MoveOn and centrist group Third Way are planning to brief Senate Democratic chiefs of staff on July 27,” POLITICO’s Burgess Everett reports. “It’s part of an effort to educate Democrats about the risk that a third-party bid funded by the well-heeled group No Labels could pose to President Joe Biden — particularly if centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) runs for president rather than reelection.”
| | IT’S A NO FROM ME — Democratic Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin is not running for Senate. He said on Friday that running for reelection in MD-08 is “the best way for me to make the greatest difference in American politics in 2024 and beyond.” Notable Democrats in the running for Maryland’s open Senate seat so far include Montgomery County Councilmember Will Jawando, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone. … Democratic Michigan state Sen. Sarah Anthony is not running for MI-07. She had “publicly considered a congressional campaign for months,” the Lansing State Journal’s Sheldon Krause writes. “While I’m humbled by the encouragement I’ve received at the national, state, and local level, I’m going to work as hard as I can to continue to deliver results for my hometown,” she said on Friday. CATCHING THE (RETIREMENT) WAVE — Democratic California Rep. Grace Napolitano announced over the weekend that she’s retiring at the end of her term. Napolitano — the oldest member of the House — endorsed state Sen. Bob Archuleta as her successor, the San Gabriel Valley Tribune’s Georgia Valdes reports. If elected, Archuleta would be one of the oldest freshmen at 78. State Sen. Susan Rubio, Citrus Community College trustee Mary Ann Lutz and Baldwin Park Planning Commissioner Ricardo Vazques have also announced bids. Former Rep. Gil Cisneros is also being urged to run. 2024 WATCH — Sam Brown, a decorated Army veteran who lost the GOP primary for a Nevada Senate seat last year, is launching another run for Senate, our Ally Mutnick and Kelly Garrity report. NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) endorsed Brown as he announced a bid on Monday. ... Washington Republican Raul Garcia is dropping his gubernatorial bid and is instead running for Senate against Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell. Garcia threw his support behind former GOP Rep. David Reichert, who announced his campaign for governor last week, instead. … Democratic Missouri state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade is running for governor. “Quade is the only Democratic candidate to date who has announced a gubernatorial campaign,” writes the Springfield News-Leader’s Kelly Dereuck. “Two Republican candidates have already announced their intentions to run for office — Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe. GOP State Sen. Bill Eigel is also considering running.” … Democratic Missouri state Sen. Karla May is running for Senate for Republican Sen. Josh Hawley’s seat, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Austin Huguelet reports. She joins a field that includes St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell and Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, who was the runner-up in last year’s Democratic primary. … Illinois Democrat Kina Collins filed for IL-07. Last year, Collins, an activist who had the support of Justice Democrats, came within around six points of unseating Democratic Rep. Danny Davis in the primary — her second attempt at the seat. Last month, Davis announced that he’s running for reelection to his 15th term. Other Democrats are looking to replace Davis, including Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin. MAYBE, MAYBE, MAYBE — Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson is considering a run in GA-06 against Republican Rep. Rich McCormick, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein reports. That comes as she “faces an unprecedented legal battle to keep her seat on the commission.” … California Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond is “seriously exploring” a 2026 gubernatorial bid, per the Los Angeles Times’ Mackenzie Mays. … Democratic Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski is raising money for a MD-02 bid — if Democratic Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger retires, Maryland Matters’ Bryan P. Sears reports. … Florida Democrats convened over the weekend to rally ahead of 2024. But as the Florida Phoenix’s Mitch Perry notes, “One thing that didn’t emerge out of this weekend for the Democrats was a name or names of major Democrats prepared to challenge” Republican Sen. Rick Scott. “Fried promised that those candidates will emerge soon.” Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins are among the names being floated. SPECIAL ELECTION SCRAMBLE — Former Utah state Sen. Becky Edwards qualified for the Republican primary election ballot in UT-02, The Salt Lake Tribune’s Kolbie Peterson reports. Republican Bruce Hough also submitted signatures, but his signatures haven’t been certified yet. Celeste Maloy, the state party’s pick, is already on the September primary ballot. NON-ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The Rhode Island Democratic Party and the Rhode Island AFL-CIO, “two of the state’s most potent political organizations,” are likely to stay out of endorsing in the crowded RI-01 primary, The Boston Globe’s Edward Fitzpatrick reports.
| | FIRST IN SCORE — Q2 TABS — Democrat Andrei Cherny, who’s in a crowded field of Democrats running in AZ-01 against Republican Rep. David Schweikert, brought in more than $625,000 in Q2, according to fundraising numbers first shared with Score. His campaign touted the haul as one “more than any non-incumbent has raised in any quarter in the off year in Arizona history.” The campaign didn’t provide a cash on hand figure. … With just five days to go until the FEC filing deadline, expect more numbers to roll in over the coming days. Send ’em my way! COUNTRY ROADS TO 2024 — West Virginia Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is leading the pack when it comes to cash in the gubernatorial race. He reported raising more than $1.1 million and had $1.4 million on hand in Q2. West Virginia MetroNews’ Brad McElhinny breaks the other reports down.
| | GOODBYE ERIC — Republican-led states who left the Electronic Registration Information Center (aka ERIC) “are scrambling to police so-called ‘double voters’ ahead of the presidential election in 2024,” our Zach Montellaro writes. “In recent months, elections officials in Ohio — one of the states that led the flight from ERIC — and elsewhere have been quietly convening leaders from dozens of states to talk about ways they can still work together to try to catch double-voters.”
| | | | UNLEASH THE FUTURE OF HEALTHCARE WITH POLITICO, A 7/20 INTERACTIVE EVENT: Imagine a future where rare genetic diseases are not only treatable, but potentially curable. Where our approach to chronic illness takes a monumental leap forward. That future is already taking shape in the form of next-generation health care treatments such as gene therapy. Join POLITICO on Thursday, July 20 and delve into the burgeoning field of gene therapies, which hold the power to redefine our health care landscape. Are you ready to explore this new frontier in health care? Don't miss this chance to be part of the conversation. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | | | | | PRESIDENTIAL — Win it Back, a new group with ties to the anti-tax Club for Growth, is launching a $3.6 million ad campaign on Tuesday in Iowa and South Carolina aimed at stopping former President Donald Trump from steamrolling to the Republican nomination, our Alex Isenstadt reports. ... Committed to America, the super PAC boosting former Vice President Mike Pence’s presidential bid, is spending $150,000 on a spot in Iowa, running on Fox News and digital platforms, per the Des Moines Register’s Stephen Gruber-Miller. The ad goes after Trump for his relationships with Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. KY GOV — Kentucky Values, which is affiliated with the RGA, is again seeking to tie Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear to Biden. A new spot claims the governor puts “liberal politics over parents,” pointing to his opposition against bills that restrict abortion access and ban gender-affirming care for minors.
| | — Alida Benson will be Trump’s Nevada campaign director, per The Messenger’s Marc Caputo and Adrian Carrasquillo. She is the executive director of the Nevada Republican Party. — Want to earn some cash? GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is launching the “Vivek Kitchen Cabinet,” a scheme that promises to pay participants 10 percent of any money they raise for his campaign. Read more from our Natalie Allison. (The campaign still continues to employ three traditional fundraising professionals to generate political donations.) CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I'm not sure if my wife would let me be without a shirt on film, but you know, I'm working on it.” (GOP presidential candidate and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez to POLITICO’s Adam Wren) | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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