Monday, May 22, 2023

The looming Medicaid crisis

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May 22, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Joanne Kenen

Maryland Del. Joseline Pena-Melnyk, a Democrat who chairs the Maryland House and Government Operations Committee, speaks at a news conference.

Maryland Del. Joseline Pena-Melnyk, a Democrat who chairs the Maryland House and Government Operations Committee, speaks at a news conference to remind state residents that Medicaid renewal is no longer automatic as it was during the Covid-19 pandemic. | Brian Witte/AP Photo

FALLING THROUGH THE CRACKS — It’s been dubbed the Great Medicaid Unwinding.

It may become the Great Medicaid Falling-Between-the-Cracks.

During the pandemic Public Health Emergency, which was lifted this month, Medicaid enrollment reached about 95 million people and states couldn’t kick them off.

Now, states have begun what will be a year-long process of notifying people — tens of millions of low income people — who may no longer be eligible for the federal-state health care program for low income people.

Millions of people could become uninsured — including nearly seven million who are actually still qualified for Medicaid, according to the Biden administration’s own 2022 projections. Kids and minority groups will be disproportionately impacted.

And given that states’ records on Medicaid outreach and enrollment is inconsistent, health care providers, particularly community health clinics and “safety net” hospitals that have a high share of low-income patients, will have to step up.

Most people currently on Medicaid will still be eligible — if they get through the notification and recertification process. Others will be eligible for heavily-subsidized plans on the Affordable Care Act markets, or may get covered at work.

In fact, almost everybody will be eligible for something — except those who fall in the “Medicaid gap,” in the 10 states still resisting Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion. (Two other states have approved expansion although it hasn’t kicked in yet.)

But health care is difficult to navigate. Understanding the Medicaid unwinding, figuring out what you are eligible for and then actually getting signed up are three different things, each with its own complexities.

“These are low-income people whose lives are often unstable and chaotic,” said Larry Levitt, executive vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation. “Even in the most proactive states, many people will fall through the cracks.”

Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families is tracking how states are doing — from how well their consumer call systems respond to how transparent they are on their data. Gaps are already emerging.

So a lot of the work is on the ground, one patient at a time. There are complicated rules about precisely who can help which patients actually enroll in which program. But all providers can help people understand what’s going on and point them in the right direction. Insurers, including those with Medicaid Managed Care plans, have an incentive to enroll people too.

Some hospitals and clinics have planned for this — although it’s too early to know how well the plans they’ve drawn up are going to work as unwinding unfolds in the real world.

“The key messages [to patients] have been 1. update your contact information with the state Medicaid agency 2. check your mail for your renewal form from your state Medicaid agency and 3. complete your renewal form,” Ted Henson, who leads an outreach and enrollment collaborative at the National Association of Community Health Centers, emailed Nightly. As many will need help with that, health centers have more than 4,000 “enrollment eligibility assisters” who can collaborate with everyone from administrative staff at the front desk to the doctors and nurses to help patients avoid pitfalls.

Safety net hospitals are also stepping up. The Eskenazi Health system in the Indianapolis area, for instance, has been preparing for months and its assistance program has been underway since April 1, James Wager, the operation manager for patient access, told us.

Eskenazi is considered an “authorized representative,” so it will get notified when someone in its system is being “unwound.” They can jump into action — including getting a translation service on the phone as needed. The Medicaid forms usually come in English and Spanish; that doesn’t cut it for the immigrant communities that speak, say, Burmese or Haitian Creole. They can help file the income verification — and guide someone to the ACA or job-related coverage if that’s where they belong.

Redetermination is normally fairly routine — but it hasn’t happened now for three years, and to some people who are new to Medicaid, it’s particularly confusing. “We are trying to inform them that this is the new normal. Or the old normal,” he said.

But since it’s not so normal — or easy — for many people, Eskenazi has put in extra layers from community outreach to email reminders through electronic medical records.

Not all hospitals and clinics are so well-prepared. Some clinics are already reporting an uptick in appointment cancellations, which may mean people think they are now uninsured and are postponing care. Some who are eligible for Obamacare have heard a decade of scare stories about how it’s unaffordable — and a lot less clear messaging about subsidies and assistance, particularly for the lower income brackets. Some may not understand that if they are eligible for private or ACA insurance, they can get it now through a “special enrollment period” and don’t have to wait for the usual autumn open enrollment season.

Ultimately, it’s up to states to make sure that message gets through. Federal health officials call it “administrative churn” when someone loses Medicaid even if they are still eligible. But in plain English, it means more poor people who are uninsured. As Indiana shows, there’s a lot that can be done right. But there’s also a lot that can go wrong.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author on Twitter at @JoanneKenen.

 

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Nightly Road to 2024

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) announces his run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination in North Charleston, S.C. today.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) announces his run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination in North Charleston, S.C. today. | Allison Joyce/Getty Images

NEW CHALLENGER — Tim Scott formally announced his presidential campaign today, joining a growing lineup of GOP candidates. The South Carolina senator starts out behind other competitors including former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has yet to formally announce his campaign, POLITICO’s Natalie Allison reports.

What sets Scott apart, according to Republican donors and strategists, is his success in his home state, a fact that could win favor over both evangelical Christians and traditional conservatives. He’s already lined up one high-profile endorsement: Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the Senate’s No. 2 Republican.

“We live in the land where it is possible for a kid raised in poverty by a single mother in a small apartment to one day serve in the People’s House, and maybe even the White House,” Scott, 57, said to the hundreds packed into a gym at his alma mater, Charleston Southern University.

There’s never been anybody in the history of the Republican Party quite like Tim Scott.

A descendant of enslaved people, the second son of a single mother, a bachelor, a teetotaler and an erstwhile insurance salesman, the convivial, 57-year-old senator is a uniquely successful Black conservative from the South. He’s been a victim of racism in stores, on roads, online and even in the United States Capitol itself, but frames his life experience as “proof that America is the land of opportunity, not a land of oppression.” It’s a message that now will undergird a compelling but likely longshot presidential bid.

Want to learn more? Here are 55 things you need to know about Tim Scott, according to POLITICO’s Michael Kruse and Sydney Gold.

TOP OF TICKET TRAUMA — As Republicans start to assemble a crop of contenders that can retake the Senate and grow their excruciatingly thin majority in the House, they are running into a persistent complication, write POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick and Holly Otterbein. The current GOP presidential primary, and Trump’s early dominance, has spooked some potential down-ballot candidates, according to a dozen recruiters, operatives and congressional hopefuls.

Many prospective recruits are wary of running alongside Trump, who dominates the spotlight, repels crucial independent voters and forces his fellow Republicans to answer for his unpredictable statements. It’s a dynamic that candidates don’t relish, and it has only come into sharper focus since Trump’s CNN town hall, when he spent 70 minutes on primetime television this month unleashing a torrent of incendiary remarks.

“Some people have asked me, ‘Should I run next year?’ If you’re in a swing district, I said, ‘No,’” said former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), who lost her suburban district in 2018 during a Trump-fueled Democratic wave. “If he’s going to be the nominee, you are better to wait and run after he washes out. Because you won’t have a prayer of winning.”

What'd I Miss?

— Carper to retire, opening safe Dem Senate seat: Tom Carper announced today he will not seek another term, opening up a safe Democratic Senate seat in Delaware next year. Carper’s impending retirement after four terms makes Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) the immediate favorite to succeed him. His retirement will also create at least one open spot in Democrats’ committee leadership come 2025; Carper currently chairs the Senate’s Environment and Public Works Committee.

— McCarthy: A debt deal could still pass by June 1: Speaker Kevin McCarthy said today he remains confident that Congress could still beat a possible June 1 default deadline despite the weekend stall in talks with the White House. While McCarthy said he would’ve preferred a deal by Sunday night, he declared the U.S. could still avoid an economically destructive debt default by June 1 if House negotiators can strike — and pass — a deal this week.

— TikTok sues Montana over statewide ban: TikTok today sued to block Montana’s new law banning downloads of the social media video app, claiming it violates the company’s First Amendment protections. The lawsuit comes just days after Montana GOP Gov. Greg Gianforte signed the law on May 17 to ban app stores from offering TikTok in Montana starting Jan. 1, 2024. Gianforte said the law protects citizens from foreign influence by the Chinese Communist Party since TikTok is owned by Beijing-based ByteDance. App stores continuing to offer the app after that Jan. 1 deadline will face penalties starting at $10,000.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

Turkish President and People's Alliance's presidential candidate Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, right, shakes hands with Sinan OÄŸan, former presidential candidate from ATA Alliance, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkish President and People's Alliance's presidential candidate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, right, shakes hands with Sinan Oğan, former presidential candidate from ATA Alliance, in Istanbul, Turkey. | Turkish Presidency via AP

‘KINGMAKER’ — Sinan Oğan, the nationalist “kingmaker” who came third in Turkey’s closely fought presidential election, is throwing his weight behind President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the runoff on Sunday, although it’s increasingly unclear how many of his first-round supporters will follow his lead, write Gabriel Gavin and Elçin Poyrazlar.

The previously little-known Oğan built on a wave of anti-migration sentiment to pick up more than five percent of the votes in the presidential election first round, held on May 14. With neither Erdoğan nor his main rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu gaining the outright majority needed to win, despite a turnout of almost 89 percent, both candidates have been working to secure 2.8 million former Oğan supporters ahead of the runoff Sunday. Oğan’s endorsement should be enough to see Erdoğan to victory.

Since the May 14 vote, however, Oğan’s “Ancestral Alliance” has splintered, making it very hard to predict which way his voters will turn on Sunday, as he doesn’t have a coherent party structure to draw on. Of the other senior alliance members, Victory Party Chair Ümit Özdağ, will announce his position Tuesday, while Justice Party Chair Vecdet Öz has said he will support Kılıçdaroğlu.

Kılıçdaroğlu’s alliance “could not convince us about the future and missed the mark” when it comes to Turkey’s future stability, Oğan said. Turkey’s nationalists are hostile toward the Kurds, who have been important supporters of the opposition’s campaign, particularly in the country’s southeast.

The announcement comes after Oğan met both Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu for talks last Friday.

Nightly Number

$4.3 trillion

The total economic damage of extreme weather- and climate-related disasters over the past 50 years, according to new, updated numbers from the World Meteorological Organization. The WMO also estimated that these events have killed two million people around the world in the last half-century, and that economic losses are increasing in pace, while early warning systems have allowed death tolls to lessen.

RADAR SWEEP

PROSE PRODIGY — After a long career that began with an immediately acclaimed work at the age of 24, the writer Martin Amis died on Friday at the age of 73. His fiction was often darkly funny, exploring nightlife and the undesirable parts of society in books like “Money: A Suicide Note” and “London Fields.” In addition to his writing, Amis became a celebrity in his own right, with a famous novelist father Kingsley Amis — with whom he had a turbulent relationship — and friends like fellow novelist Christopher Hitchens. He also delved into nonfiction later in his life, writing a biography of Stalin and on other topics to more mixed critical results. Read Christian Lorentzen on his work, life and legacy in the Financial Times.

Parting Image

On this date in 1979: Demonstrators protest outside of San Francisco's City Hall following the voluntary manslaughter verdict in the Dan White case. White assassinated San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk. A sign reads: If White shouldn't fry, then nobody should!

On this date in 1979: Demonstrators protest outside of San Francisco's City Hall following the voluntary manslaughter verdict in the Dan White case. White assassinated San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk. A sign reads: If White shouldn't fry, then nobody should! | Paul Sakuma/AP Photo

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