| | | | |  | | By Holly Otterbein and Madison Fernandez | | | | | PHILADELPHIA — Democrats in Pennsylvania dodged a bullet last week, thanks to voters’ anger over abortion rights being threatened — and an assist from Gov. Josh Shapiro. On Tuesday, the party held onto its razor-thin majority in the state House, winning a special election for a seat in the Philadelphia suburbs. Democrats had gone all in on the race, spending nearly $1 million and even securing a last-minute endorsement from President Joe Biden to back Heather Boyd, a former congressional aide running for the seat. Ahead of the election, their all-out efforts were a bit of a head-scratcher. After all, the party had won the seat by 32 percentage points just last year. But there was good reason for that freakout, with Shapiro’s team working behind the scenes to defend the slim majority in the chamber, according to details shared exclusively with Score.
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Heather Boyd speaks with supporters on May 16 in Drexel Hill, Pa. | Matt Slocum/AP Photo | | Democrats’ anxiety began mounting a few weeks before the election, when rumors began swirling that the race was close. That was a big problem: Democrats only controlled the House by a single seat, 101-100. If Republicans flipped the seat they would have flipped the House. That would have meant a Republican majority in each chamber, giving the state legislature the ability to put an anti-abortion constitutional amendment on the ballot in the future, circumventing Shapiro entirely, Democrats feared. Shapiro’s team privately commissioned a poll in mid-April to assess the situation — and it showed their fears were well-founded. Republican Katie Ford and Boyd were statistically tied in the Delaware County district. In a hypothetical low-turnout scenario, Ford was ahead 42-39, while in a higher-turnout situation, Boyd led 42-39. Shapiro cut a direct-to-camera ad, in which he warned that “abortion rights are threatened right now in Pennsylvania.” He also posed in mail advertisements alongside Boyd that encouraged voters to help “keep abortion legal in Pennsylvania.” Ford said attempts to paint her as wanting to go back to the “dark ages” when it came to abortion rights were inaccurate. Shapiro also turned on his financial machine, donating and raising more than $500,000 for the Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee, his aides said. Republicans didn’t spend nearly as much, though potential Senate candidate David McCormick helped bring in $22,000 for Ford and gave $10,000 to her through his new political committee. At the end of the day, the race wasn’t close. Boyd won by 21 percentage points. Still, the contest illustrates the potential power of abortion as a motivating issue in a critical battleground state ahead of the 2024 presidential race, particularly in the suburbs. It also provides a look at what it might mean for Biden to have Shapiro as a surrogate next year. Biden tapped Shapiro recently to sit on his campaign’s national advisory board. “Gov. Shapiro recognized the importance of this race and protecting Speaker McClinton’s Democratic majority in the House,” said Will Simons, a Shapiro spokesperson. “The governor stepped in to ensure voters in Delaware County understood exactly what was at stake — and in the end, voters sent a clear message that they want a Democratic majority in the House to protect our fundamental freedoms.” Happy Monday. Thanks to Holly for today’s top line. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Virginia primary: 29 Days until the Mississippi primary: 78 Days until the Louisiana primary: 145 Days until the 2023 election: 169 Days until the 2024 election: 533
| | | | A message from Upland: Mobile Commons helps organizations grow their lists, raise donations, and drive their supporters to action through advanced SMS and MMS campaigns. Mobile Commons’ superior segmenting, tracking, and personalization features accelerate and maximize mobile messaging programs, and our specialized capabilities help engage and activate supporters with features that include legislative calls and polling locators, 1-1 text conversations, and built-in donation capabilities. | | | | | | PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Republicans are running into a recruitment issue. POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein and Ally Mutnick write: Many prospective Republican candidates “are wary of running alongside [former President Donald Trump], who dominates the spotlight, repels crucial independent voters and forces his fellow Republicans to answer for his unpredictable statements.” Holly and Ally note that “few Republicans worry the former president will seriously damage their bench in either chamber, and they maintain that many of the candidates on the fence will ultimately decide to run.” But some of those recruits to keep an eye on: Pennsylvania Republican Dave McCormick, who’s considering a Senate bid. And over in the House, Recruiters have urged Colorado Republican Joe O’Dea to consider a run against Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in CO-08. O’Dea lost his bid last year against Sen. Michael Bennet by close to 15 points. Allan Fung in Rhode Island and George Logan in Connecticut are also considering rematches after narrow losses in 2022, “but both have expressed concern about how to navigate Trump on the top of the ticket.” Additionally, “similar conversations have played out in New York, where party operatives are hoping to entice Alison Esposito, a lesbian NYPD veteran who ran for lieutenant governor in 2022, to take on Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.).” ANOTHER ONE — The GOP field for governor of North Carolina is getting more crowded. Former Rep. Mark Walker launched his bid over the weekend, going up against Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who’s seen by many — including Walker — as the current frontrunner. Read more from POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro. 2024 WATCH — Pennsylvania Republican Doug Mastriano, who lost his bid for governor last year, is nearing a decision on a Senate run against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Gillian McGoldrick reports. He teased the announcement, expected this week, as “crazy good news.” … Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) is announcing his reelection plans on Monday. The 76-year-old, four-term senator raised over $190,000 last quarter and ended March with around $607,000 in the bank. … Wisconsin Democrat Kristin Lyerly is mulling a bid against Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Bill Glauber. “If she enters the race — and that's still to be decided — it would be a dramatic turnaround for Democrats, who didn't even field a candidate against Gallagher last year as he coasted to re-election to his fourth term.” Gallagher’s name has been thrown around as a potential challenger to Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin next year, but he’s “brushed off speculation and has said he's concentrating on his Congressional role.” … Democrat Marlene Galan-Woods filed for AZ-01, currently held by Republican Rep. David Schweikert. She’s the widow of former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods and was chair of Democrat Adrian Fontes’ campaign for secretary of state last year. Galan-Woods told 12News’ Brahm Resnik earlier this year that she was considering a run. … The race for CA-30, which is being vacated by Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff as he runs for Senate, is getting more crowded. Sarah Idan, a Democrat and former Miss Iraq, told the New York Post last week that she’s mounting a bid and filed with the FEC on Friday. More than a dozen other candidates have filed for the seat. SPECIAL ELECTION SCRAMBLE — Jay Jacobs, chair of the New York State Democratic Party and Nassau County Democratic committee, is already in conversation with the DCCC and Queens Democratic Chair Rep. Greg Meeks about how to pick a candidate if Republican Rep. George Santos leaves office, POLITICO’s Bill Mahoney reports. “Even if Santos doesn’t resign, Democratic officials plan to be more involved in the race than in the past. … Jacobs said his committee will determine which candidate has the best chance to win and then ‘try to encourage the candidates that don’t have the strength, haven’t the money, etcetera, to revisit their ambition.’” LOOKING AHEAD — Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) said he’s considering a Senate run in 2026 against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H), who he lost to in 2014, he told Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser. "Of course, I think about it. Will it materialize, I don’t know,” he said.
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| | GREAT SCOTT — Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is set to launch his presidential bid on Monday, and he’s already racking up the endorsements. Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) is endorsing his bid and is set to appear at Scott’s launch, our Burgess Everett scoops. He’s the second senator to do so, after Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) did last week. POLL POSITION — Can Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis bounce back in the polls? POLITICO’s Steve Shepard breaks down some of the possibilities. TRAIL MIX — DeSantis was on the move over the weekend, visiting New Hampshire on Friday (and meeting with Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who’s also considering a presidential bid) along with headlining an anti-abortion group’s gala on Saturday night in Florida, in which he briefly touched on the six-week abortion ban he recently signed into law. Our Sally Goldenberg and Anna Wilder write: “DeSantis’ reluctance to expand on the topic was the latest sign of the tightrope he is walking on abortion — eager to make inroads with conservatives in the GOP primary, but wary of alienating moderates for whom abortion access has become a major concern.” … The South Carolina Republican Party reelected its chair over the weekend, and some presidential hopefuls used the gathering to make their 2024 pitches. Tim Scott and Trump addressed the delegates via video, and Vivek Ramaswamy was the only candidate there in person. Read more from the AP’s Meg Kinnard. DONOR DASH — GOP donor Hal Lambert, founder of Texas-based Point Bridge Capital, told the New York Post’s Carl Campanile that he’s backing DeSantis.
| | | | A message from Upland:   | | | | | PRESIDENTIAL — MAGA, Inc., the group boosting Trump’s presidential bid, is hitting DeSantis again as he inches closer toward an expected presidential launch this week. It’s a musical number slamming him on sales tax, and it’s running in New Hampshire and Iowa. KY GOV — Defending Bluegrass Values, a group affiliated with the DGA, is going after Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron with its first ad of the Kentucky gubernatorial election. “Cameron passed the buck, and Kentucky got hurt,” the narrator says, claiming that Cameron didn’t hold former Republican Gov. Matt Bevin accountable for his last-minute early release of violent criminals before his term ended. MS GOV — New Southern Majority, a PAC affiliated with the Southern Poverty Law Center, dropped its first ad of the Mississippi gubernatorial race. It hits on a yearslong fraud case concerning state welfare funds. It’s part of the initial $250,000 in the race announced last month.
| | PARTY CHECK-IN — Here are the April (money) showers from the party committees, per FEC filings due over the weekend. The reports cover April 1-30. — DCCC: The DCCC raised $9.1 million and had $25.1 million in the bank. The committee had no debts. — NRCC: The NRCC brought in $5.6 million and had $23.9 million on hand. The committee had $3.8 million in debts. — DSCC: The DSCC posted $6.2 million in receipts. It had $8.5 million on hand and $7 million in debts. — NRSC: The NRSC raised $6.2 million and had $8.9 million on hand. The committee had $10.8 million in debts. — DNC: The DNC hauled in $10.1 million. It had $28.9 million on hand and $396,000 in debts. — RNC: The RNC brought in $6.6 million and had $10.8 million in the bank. It had $915,000 in debts.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | | | | — GOP strategist Jesse Hunt is senior communications adviser for Opportunity Matters Fund, the pro-Tim Scott super PAC, Axios’ Josh Kraushaar reports. Hunt is an RGA, NRSC and NRCC alum. — Austin McCubbin is Trump’s South Carolina state director, per The Post and Courier’s Caitlin Byrd. He was Rep. Nancy Mace’s (R-S.C.) campaign manager last year. Former Lt. Gov. André Bauer is senior adviser and Justin Evans is director of special projects in the state. — Peter Daou, Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson’s campaign manager, said he is stepping down from the campaign. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I’m someone who needs to be better known by this country.” (Republican Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who’s mulling a presidential bid, on CBS News’ “Face the Nation”)
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