Monday, May 22, 2023

The Jersey angle on a debt default

Matt Friedman's must-read briefing on the Garden State's important news of the day
May 22, 2023 View in browser
 
New Jersey Playbook

By Dustin Racioppi

Good Monday morning!

In Navy boot camp, my division commander had a saying (much more explicit and usually before making us do push-ups): "One 'aw shoot' ruins a thousand 'attaboys.'"

The idea is that it doesn't take much to erase hard work. The same aphorism applies in the debt limit negotiations.

Gov. Phil Murphy has spent years building up New Jersey's surplus and trying to get the state's finances on sound footing. But if a deal isn't reached and the United States defaults on its debt, the damage in New Jersey "could be very severe and long term," as treasurer Elizabeth Maher Muoio told lawmakers last week. Murphy's "attaboys" would most likely be undone, and quickly.

With about 10 days until the country can no longer pay its bills, New Jersey's lawmakers are sounding alarms. U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Passaic) said in a positively grim tweet that it would mean bank runs, small businesses closing and life savings wiped out.

U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Monmouth) said at an event Friday that a default would cause interest rates to spike and cause large-scale job losses. A typical New Jersey homeowner would pay an additional $63,000 over the life of their mortgage, he said. And "it could usher in a level of recession — or even depression — like we've never seen."

We just heard from Treasury and OLS that they expect to see about $2 billion less in tax revenue than they did in March. It's not hard to imagine burning pretty swiftly through the state's $8 billion surplus if the country defaults on its debt.

On that note: have a great week, folks. The POLITICO New Jersey team is filling in for Matt this week.

TIPS? FEEDBACK? Email me at dracioppi@politico.com.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “What I do miss was the sharing of ideas—talking with each other. Picking up ledes and the ability to spitball ideas with colleagues from rival papers. It was an amazing and necessary dynamic and I think these bright, super talented kids coming up that I really admire — well I just lament they won’t have that same experience. Journalism was a social profession.” — The Record's Charlie Stile in an interview about the new and universally disliked press row in the Statehouse.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Assemblymember Sean Kean, comms consultant Kevin Davitt and my brother Bobby.

WHERE'S MURPHY? Traveling to Michigan for the Democratic Governors Association Spring Policy Conference.

 

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WHAT TRENTON MADE

JUDICIAL VACANCY CRISIS SOLVED — Murphy names DOBI commissioner Caride to judgeship, by POLITICO's Daniel Han: Gov. Phil Murphy has named Department of Banking and Insurance Commissioner Marlene Caride to a Superior Court judgeship. Caride will still hold the commissioner position until she is confirmed, according to Murphy spokesperson Mahen Gunaratna. The notice of Murphy’s intent to nominate Caride was unannounced but posted to the Legislature’s website along with other nominations. “Marlene Caride has served the people of New Jersey with distinction as the commissioner of the Department of Banking and Insurance for the past five years,” Gunaratna said. “The governor knows she’ll be an asset to our judiciary as a Superior Court judge as she was to his administration. He looks forward to her swift confirmation.”

ACTUALLY IT'S GETTING WORSE — "Judicial retirements poised to erase progress made on appointing judges, chief justice warns," by New Jersey Monitor's Nikita Biryukov: "New Jersey Supreme Court Chief Justice Stuart Rabner urged legislators and Gov. Phil Murphy to do more to end the state’s longstanding judge shortage, warning during a speech Friday that what little progress had been made over the last year risks being erased by pending retirements. When Rabner delivered a similar warning during his annual “State of the Judiciary” address last year, 75 seats on the state Superior Court bench were empty, a 17% vacancy rate. A year later, Murphy and the Senate have cut that down to just 64, a 15% vacancy rate. But retirements expected through the end of the year could bring that number as high as 84, and six of those retirements will come in just the next two weeks, Rabner said Friday. “Make no mistake about it: This problem will not simply go away,” he said."

MASSIVE CAVITY — "Can’t get a dental appointment? N.J. dentists grow desperate as workers quit in droves," by NJ Advance Media's Spencer Kent: "For Tracy Stiegelmayer, it wasn’t about the money. She made a good living as a dental hygienist, earning roughly $76,000 a year working four days a week. But after 14 years, she needed a change and wanted more flexibility. She recently accepted a job with a dental health insurer, allowing her to work from home. “I love hygiene, and I loved working with people and whatnot, but there’s not really much flexibility,” said Stiegelmayer, a 39-year-old Middletown wife and mother of two who wanted to be there when her 6-year-old daughter came home from school."

LGBTQ SCHOOL POLICY IN COURT — "NJ court halts Hanover school district policy to tell parents of students' LGBTQ identity," by The Record's Mary Ann Koruth: "A state Superior Court has temporarily prohibited the Hanover Township Board of Education from implementing a policy that would require school staff to disclose to parents the gender identity and sexual orientation of its LGBTQ+ students. The order remains in effect until the court can hear arguments from both sides on May 30."

CORPORATIONS ARE PEOPLE TOO — "Gov. Murphy’s progressive fans are steamed at him over how much N.J. should tax big corporations," by NJ Advance Media's Derek Hall: "In a year of so little controversy over New Jersey’s state budget, this one stands out. Progressive advocates are angry at state legislative leaders and self-described progressive Gov. Phil Murphy  for deciding to end a temporary surtax on the largest companies doing business in New Jersey. Since the budget process began in the winter, they have sounded the chorus that the big corporations can still afford to pay the surtax and that ending it will hurt the less-fortunate who need dollars from the state budget. They’ve taken to the streets in Trenton and Newark to protest."

33.33 MASTROS — Most New Jersey mayors say state owes local governments $300 million, by POLITICO's Ry Rivard: Over 400 New Jersey mayors from every part of the state and both parties are asking lawmakers to release hundreds of millions of dollars they say the state is withholding from local governments. In the weeks before the state budget must be signed, the mayors released a letter last week arguing the state is hoarding utility fees that rightfully belong to local governments — over $300 million a year. Give back the money, the mayors say, and it could be used to help lower property taxes or offset ever-rising local costs.

3.7 MASTROS — Treasury asks for $33.6 million more on public worker health benefits, by POLITICO's Daniel Han: The Treasury Department is requesting an additional $33.6 million for health benefits for public sector workers as part of the upcoming budget. The request — noted by Treasurer Elizabeth Maher Muoio at a legislative budget hearing Wednesday — brings the state’s total request for health benefits in the FY2024 budget to $4.104 billion, according to Treasury spokesperson Darryl Isherwood. The governor’s proposed budget from February initially requested $4.071 billion in health benefits. The spending only accounts for state workers and retired government workers and does not include active local government workers.

— "Lighthouse operator is battling not only rapid bayshore erosion, but the State of New Jersey"
"OPRAmachine gets big win in court"
"Legislation would abolish ‘antiquated’ county constables"
"Gov. Murphy vetoed a 20-year service pension bill for police and firefighters. Here's why."
"Advocates call for greater protections for immigrants"

 

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BIDEN TIME

CHRISTIE TO NAME BUCK SHOWALTER CAMPAIGN MANAGER — "Chris Christie could enter 2024 race for president in a matter of days," by The Independent's Josh Marcus: "Chris Christie will reportedly be entering the 2024 presidential race soon. The Republican former New Jersey governor will make an announcement in a matter of days, and focus on the key primary state of New Hampshire, according to New Hampshire Today, citing multiple anonymous sources with knowledge of the campaign. The campaign will reportedly be backed by billionaire New York Mets owner Steve Cohen."

THE TRUMP SLAYER — "The revenge of Chris Christie? How he could take it to Trump," by The Washington Post's Aaron Blake: "Say what you will about Chris Christie; he is a smart man. He’s an accomplished former U.S. attorney and someone who, for a time at least, harnessed the political zeitgeist to become a popular governor and a supposed savior-in-waiting for the GOP in 2012. He must know that he has precious little chance in 2024. A December poll showed just 3 percent of Republican-leaning voters said they would be “very satisfied” with him as their nominee. A more recent poll showed fully 70 percent wouldn’t even consider him (the most of nine candidates tested). Even in New Hampshire, the state he would apparently focus heavily on, a recent poll showed primary voters disliked him 53 percent to 10 percent. Yet signs are building that Christie will again decide to run for president at what is decidedly the wrong time — even more than 2016 was. And while he has insisted this isn’t just a kamikaze mission to take down Donald Trump, it’s difficult to see how it could amount to much else."

HE'S RUNNING — "Senator Cory Booker and Jen Psaki go on a run and talk politics," by MSNBC: "Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Jen Psaki go on a run. Sen. Booker discusses his passion for health, wellness and his role on the Agriculture Committee. Booker also discusses his political future and his friendship with his colleague Senator Tim Scott."

LOCAL

R.I.P. — "Robert Byrne, longtime Jersey City city clerk, dies at age of 63," by The Jersey Journal's Ron Zeitlinger: "Robert Byrne, who presided over Jersey City City Hall meetings as city clerk for parts of five different decades, died Friday at the age of 63."

RAJ RUNNING SCARED — "ELEC: Mukherji has $609k cash on hand, O’Dea with $353k, ahead of June 6 primary," by Hudson County View's John Heinis: "Assemblyman Raj Mukherji (D-33), a state senate candidate for the new 32nd Legislative District, and Hudson County Commissioner Bill O’Dea (D-2) are leading the way with cash on hand amongst June 6 primary candidates, campaign finance reports show. Mukherji’s May 8th report shows that he gave himself a $500,000 loan on March 28th of last year and hasn’t paid it back yet. He reports raising just over $103,170.16 on top of that and spending $78,058.97, with $608,602.35 cash on hand. Therefore, even though he is running unopposed in the primary, he is still running a full throttled campaign effort."

MIKE TESTA WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY — "As Baraka Looks Statewide, Newark Education Record Gets Scrutiny," by TAPInto Newark's Mark J. Bonamo: "When Newark Mayor Ras Baraka gave his State of the City address last month, he listed what he believes are some of his signature achievements, citing progress in areas such as affordable housing, violence prevention initiatives, expanded city recreation programs, and workforce development. While Baraka extolled his record, he also mentioned issues such as reproductive rights and offshore wind projects, topics that are more often reserved for a wider platform, potentially sparking speculation about a possible Baraka gubernatorial run in 2025. Yet while pointing to Newark as a policy pathfinder, notably absent from Baraka's State of the City address were references to concerns that have emerged in recent months about the practices and performance of the Newark school district, currently under the leadership of Superintendent Roger Leon. Baraka was a longtime educator before he became mayor, and served as the principal of Central High School."

McCABE'S MACHINE — "'No more Democratic process' for Middlesex County Democrats, candidate says," by My Central Jersey's Suzanne Russell: "Politics in Edison is usually complicated, but this primary season it's a bit more confusing with campaign signs for different slates with some having the same candidates' names. And this year finding your favorite Township Council candidates in the June 6 primary is like trying to find your favorite dish on a restaurant menu. There might be one from Column A and others on Columns B or D. And because Edison is dominated by Democrats, whoever wins the Democratic primary receives a huge boost for the general election in November."

EVERYTHING ELSE

IT ISN'T DUSTIN AND IT NEVER WILL BE — "A new name tops NJ's most popular baby names list. See the top 100," by the Asbury Park Press' Tamara Walker: "As a new parent, one of the first decisions to make is choosing the perfect name for that perfect bundle of joy. In some families, new parents stick with legacy names and in some cultures new parents choose biblical ones. At times parents will name their baby after an iconic historical figure or their favorite celebrity — I know a few Michaels and Mariah’s. But just like the seasons those cute, trendy baby names come and go. And in New Jersey that trend seems to be changing, slightly."

CORRECTION: Friday's newsletter incorrectly named Phil Thigpen as a former constitutional officer.

 

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