Monday, May 22, 2023

The case for Tim Scott

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May 22, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

Presented by

Altria

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Tim Scott walks through the Capitol building.

Today, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is expected to officially launch his bid for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination in his hometown of North Charleston. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

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DRIVING THE DAY

EYES ON WILMINGTON — Sen. TOM CARPER (D-Del.), 76, is expected to announce at 11 a.m. whether he’ll run for a fifth term, per WBOC-TV’s Hunter Landon. Watching closely: Rep. LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER.

DIFI DOWNLOAD — “Feinstein is not going to quit the Senate. Ever. Just ask her biographer,” by the L.A. Times’ Mark Z. Barabak: “[F]ew people have a longer history with DIANNE FEINSTEIN or a better understanding of California’s ailing U.S. senator than JERRY ROBERTS. … ‘She’s never been a party regular, go-along person. So to have people say, “Well, the Democratic Party wants her to do this” — it’s silly.’”

JUST POSTED — “Biden gets low ratings on economy, guns, immigration in AP-NORC Poll,” by AP’s Aamer Madhani and Emily Swanson: “As President JOE BIDEN embarks on his reelection campaign, just 33% of American adults say they approve of his handling of the economy and only 24% say national economic conditions are in good shape.”

THE GOP FIELD FILLS OUT — It’s going to be a big ole week in the Republican race for the 2024 nomination. The most hotly anticipated event, of course, is Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ long-awaited official campaign announcement, which is expected as soon as Wednesday.

But, first, South Carolina Sen. TIM SCOTT takes the stage. He’ll officially launch his bid midday in his hometown of North Charleston at Charleston Southern University, huddle with donors, then head directly to Iowa and New Hampshire, where he has already reserved millions of dollars worth of advertising.

What Scott, 57, brings to the party is an impressive war chest — around $22 million left over from his Senate re-elect last year and millions more via Super PAC — and a compelling life story, rising from extreme poverty to being arguably the most powerful Black conservative in the country.

He’s also been quietly building a base of support, particularly among his Senate colleagues. Our colleague Burgess Everett scooped a big endorsement, from Sen. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.), the No. 2 GOP leader and a longtime colleague of Scott’s on the Senate Finance Committee. Thune is expected in North Charleston for today’s announcement.

What he doesn’t have is much of a national profile: Despite a soft launch last month with the announcement of an exploratory committee, he’s still hovering just under two percent in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

Scott’s campaign makes a four-fold case: (1) Scott is the best messenger in the race; (2) he’s the most consistently conservative in the still-forming field; (3) he has the resources and infrastructure to win; and (4) he’s broadly appealing across GOP factions, giving him a clear path to victory.

But Scott is fighting doubts as to whether his happy warrior, RONALD REAGAN-esque message can break through in former president DONALD TRUMP’s Republican party. He is asking the GOP electorate to choose a traditional movement conservative when populism and grievance have won out in election after election.

The contrast with Trump will be so obvious, some Republicans believe, that unlike, say DeSantis, Scott won’t have to mention it much.

“Their demeanors, their messages, their life stories are just so diametrically different,” one senior Republican strategist told Playbook last night. “For a lot of voters, they'll see obvious distinctions between the two. It might be harder for some other candidates in the race to appear different or have a different type of message.”

For Scott and his orbit, that means they’re feeling less pressure to attack Trump right out of the gate. It’s also not exactly the South Carolinian’s style. Unlike many of his Senate colleagues, he went years without directly criticizing Trump. (His record on race was a notable exception.)

As one senior Scott advisor put it to us last night: “We're not afraid of contrast, but that will be done on our timeline, not anybody else's. And No. 2 is, we believe fighting is good, but winning is better. You can't make change and you can't govern as a conservative if you don't win as a conservative.”

While Scott has had moments on the national stage, notably giving the GOP response to Biden’s first address to Congress in 2021, today’s speech will be his first chance to make a cogent argument for why he should be taken seriously as a candidate — and a future president.

Expect a speech heavy on biographical details and policy plans on issues such as border security and education — “essentially an opening argument against Joe Biden,” as the Scott adviser put it. “The really big point at the end is going to be about how Tim's life disproves the lies of the left — shows you that there is no ceiling on how high you can climb with opportunity and with individual responsibility.”

Of course, with Trump dominating in the polls, there may in fact be a ceiling this time around. Good thing, then, that Scott has considered other options. As the Messenger surfaced last week, the Charleston Post and Courier asked Scott about a potential presidential run in 1995, early in his political career: “I thought about that,” he replied, “but as vice president you get to speak more and have a forum to deliver messages.”

 

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THE WEEK — Tomorrow: House Judiciary hearing on “The Biden Border Crisis.” MIKE PENCE campaigns in Iowa. … Wednesday: NIKKI HALEY at Saint Anselm College’s Politics & Eggs. House Oversight hearing on “Examining the Biden Administration’s Regulatory Assault on Americans’ Gas Stoves.” … Thursday: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Q1 economic growth data. … Friday: Bureau of Economic Analysis releases core inflation data for April. Biden hosts college basketball champions from LSU (women) and UConn (men) at the White House.

BIDEN’S MONDAY — The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. He’ll also meet with McCarthy.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ MONDAY (all times Eastern):

2:10 p.m.: Harris will arrive in Mountain View, Calif.

3 p.m.: The VP will convene a roundtable with tech CEOs to discuss the administration’s investment in U.S. semiconductor research and manufacturing.

4:30 p.m.: Harris will give remarks on the administration’s implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act.

6:10 p.m.: Harris will depart Moffett Federal Airfield en route to Joint Base Andrews.

THE HOUSE will meet at noon and will take up several bills at 2 p.m., with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to take up a fentanyl trafficking bill and resolutions seeking to overturn EPA and Education Department rules.

THE SENATE is out.

 

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DEBT LIMIT VIBE CHECK —- President Biden is back in Washington after a shortened foreign trip to Asia — and back to full focus on high-stakes debt ceiling negotiations with as few as nine days before the U.S. suffers a historic default. Biden and House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY spoke by phone before Biden left Japan, and the two agreed to meet today at the White House.

Negotiators worked Sunday night to set the table for today’s meeting with the White House team — Budget Director SHALANDA YOUNG, Legislative Affairs chief LOUISA TERRELL and counselor STEVE RICCHETTI — traveling to the Capitol for two-and-a-half-hour meeting with GOP Reps. GARRET GRAVES (La.) and PATRICK McHENRY (N.C.).


White House aides were tight-lipped after the meeting, a sign that the talks remain viable. McCarthy gaggled separately with reporters for nearly 20 minutes, calling his conversation with Biden “productive” and striking a more optimistic tone than earlier in the weekend. The meeting between the two men, he said, is likely to be in the afternoon.

Biden was also upbeat, telling reporters as he arrived at the White House, “It went well. We’ll talk tomorrow.”

“A lot rides on that meeting,” an administration official told Playbook, adding that the White House sees the confab as a way for McCarthy to flex his muscles with his caucus. “He can then paint it as a bit of a concession in and of itself.”

As our colleague Olivia Beavers reports, “There is hope that the Monday meeting can get them back on track, despite both sides accusing the other of moving the goalposts while heading into the week. … The window for a deal is quickly closing. And further complicating the timeline: While the Senate is out this week, the House is slated to be in recess on Friday ahead of Memorial Day weekend — breaks both chambers may have to cut short if negotiators land a deal.”

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., walks in the Capitol Rotunda on Capitol Hill in Washington, Sunday, May 21, 2023. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), walks in the Capitol Rotunda on Capitol Hill in on May 21, 2023. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

RECRUITMENT STRUGGLES — Republicans are having some difficulty convincing top recruits to run in key House and Senate races because potential candidates are spooked by the idea of running on the same ballot as Trump, Ally Mutnick and Holly Otterbein report this morning. Many Republicans — some of whom may indeed decide to jump in — are considering Trump’s recent dominance in the presidential primary as a concern in their decision-making. Among the politicos named: JOE O’DEA in Colorado, DAVID McCORMICK in Pennsylvania, ALLAN FUNG in Rhode Island, GEORGE LOGAN in Connecticut and ALISON ESPOSITO in New York.

2024 WATCH

WALKING ON SUNSHINE — Florida looked like all but a lost cause for Democrats after 2020 and especially 2022, when the red wave crashed hard across the Sunshine State. But the Biden campaign wants to make it play at putting Florida back on the table in 2024 by running intensely on blasting DeSantis’ tenure as an extreme conservative blueprint for America, CNN’s Isaac Dovere reports. The DNC has an early staffer in Tallahassee already. And the campaign is laying some quiet groundwork to see whether Florida is worth a full-court press.

ALMIGHTY VS. ALTERNATIVE REDUX — Nine out of 15 focus group swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 said they would vote again for Biden, per WaPo’s Michael Scherer, Emily Guskin and Scott Clement: “Public polling has shown clear majorities of the American people — including many Democratic-leaning voters — are concerned about Biden’s health and do not want him to run again. But in both focus groups and polling, concerns about another Trump presidency are even greater, leaving Biden in a much better position if the two men meet in a rematch.”

THE AGE-OLD QUESTION — “Scranton’s Seniors are Split Over Biden’s Advancing Age,” by The Messenger’s Darren Samuelsohn: “[I]t’s no surprise that many there said they trusted Biden at his word when he insists he’s healthy and energized enough to do the job … It also wasn’t hard to find seniors who’d rather see Biden retire and cede the stage to someone younger.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE LATEST PROMISES — “Biden Announces More Aid for Ukraine as Group of 7 Powers Meet in Japan,” by NYT’s Peter Baker, Motoko Rich and David Sanger: “President VOLODOMYR ZELENSKY of Ukraine received vows of resolute support and promises of further weapons shipments even as Russian forces claimed to have seized the war-torn city of Bakhmut.”

MOVE FAST AND BUILD THINGS — “Start-Ups Bring Silicon Valley Ethos to a Lumbering Military-Industrial Complex,” by NYT’s Eric Lipton

BOMBS AWAY — “Seeking a Bigger Bang, U.S. Invests in Advanced Explosives,” by WSJ’s Doug Cameron: “Ukraine war provides test for Pentagon’s efforts to close ‘molecule gap’ with China.”

CONGRESS

THE PRINCIPAL’S PRINCIPLES — “Jamaal Bowman Is Getting Into It,” by Ben Jacobs in N.Y. Mag: “The congressman says his sparring with GOP colleagues is just him finally being himself in Washington.”

POLICY CORNER

TAKEN FOR A RIDE — “How the Pentagon falls victim to price gouging by military contractors,” by CBS’ Aliza Chasan: “Military contractors overcharge the Pentagon on almost everything the Department of Defense buys each year, experts told 60 Minutes over the course of a six-month investigation into price gouging.”

 

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

HOSTAGE WATCH — Wrongfully detained American PAUL WHELAN sounds somewhat optimistic that he may be headed toward release, telling CNN’s Jennifer Hansler from prison camp in Russia that he’s gotten more hopeful in the past several months. “I remain positive and confident on a daily basis that the wheels are turning,” Whelan says. “I just wish they would turn a little bit more quickly.”

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — As the G-7 wrapped up yesterday, Biden sought to tamp down tensions with China by telling reporters that he expected relations to “begin to thaw very shortly,” per Bloomberg’s Jenny Leonard and Annmarie Hordern. Biden dangled the prospect of removing sanctions on Chinese Defense Minister LI SHANGFU.

But despite the recent engagement and talk of a thaw, things are still looking pretty hot in Beijing. Just hours after Biden spoke, China announced that its regulators would block some purchases of products from American chipmaker Micron, citing cybersecurity concerns. Operators of certain key infrastructure could now be barred from buying Micron tech, though China didn’t provide many details of its findings. The decision, of course, comes amid escalating competition over semiconductor chip manufacturing. More from Reuters

The Commerce Department decried the move in a statement last night as “restrictions that have no basis in fact.” Notes NYT’s Annie Karni, “reading between the lines, the US will have to convince S. Korean chip companies to forgo big profits and resist backfilling China’s self-created supply problem.”

THE SCRAPPED TRIP — “U.S. to sign new security pact with Papua New Guinea amid competition with China,” by AP’s Nick Perry in Port Moresby

BOOGIE WOOGIE WOOGIE — “U.S. pumps the brakes on EU clean car deal,” by Barbara Moens, Steven Overly and Sarah Anne Aarup: “The European Union has been pressing for a more flexible agreement on the critical minerals used in electric car batteries … But that doesn’t work for the Biden administration … The impasse, described to POLITICO by a dozen officials on both sides of the Atlantic, is likely to drag out negotiations into the summer, leaving European automakers at a disadvantage in the U.S. car market in the meantime.”

“The U.S. Needs Minerals for Electric Cars. Everyone Else Wants Them Too,” by NYT’s Ana Swanson

“Exxon Joins Hunt for Lithium in Bet on EV Boom,” by WSJ’s Benoît Morenne and Collin Eaton

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

ANNIVERSARY WEEK — “A Year After a School Shooting, Divisions Run Through Uvalde,” by NYT’s Edgar Sandoval and J. David Goodman in Uvalde, Texas: “The fissures run deep and remain raw: between the victims’ relatives lobbying for stricter gun laws, and neighbors who have long been avid hunters and gun owners and bristle at any new restrictions; between supporters of the police, who are the subject of a district attorney’s investigation for their delay in taking down the gunman, and residents who now distrust law enforcement; between those still in mourning and those who would like to move on.”

THE ABORTION LANDSCAPE — “Small, rural communities are becoming abortion access battlegrounds,” by KFF Health News’ Jazmin Orozco Rodriguez in West Wendover, Nev.

MEDIAWATCH

LEDE OF THE DAY — “Federal inquiry details abuses of power by Trump’s CEO over Voice of America,” by NPR’s David Folkenflik: “On the day after his confirmation as chief executive of the U.S. Agency for Global Media in June 2020, MICHAEL PACK met with a career employee to discuss which senior leaders at the agency and the Voice of America should be forced out due to their perceived political beliefs.”

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Gisele Barreto Fetterman is a firefighter now.

Jack Sweeney, who tracked Elon Musk’s jet, is watching Ron DeSantis now.

Joe Biden is known as “grandpa” to young Japanese anime fans.

IN MEMORIAM — “C. Boyden Gray, Lawyer for the Republican Establishment, Dies at 80,” by NYT’s Alex Traub: He “personified the conservative legal establishment as a lawyer involved in legal strategy, judicial appointments, policy, diplomacy or fund-raising for every Republican president since Ronald Reagan … Mr. Gray reached his highest government position as White House counsel under President George H.W. Bush.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Morgan Brummund is joining the American Conservation Coalition as ACC Action’s government affairs director. She previously was a science and technology policy fellow at the Energy Department. And Sarah Jensen is now a policy associate for ACC.

MEDIA MOVE — Ben White will be chief Wall Street correspondent at The Messenger, per Semafor’s Max Tani. He currently is chief economic correspondent at POLITICO.

TRANSITIONS — Richard Monocchio is now principal deputy assistant HUD secretary for public and Indian housing. He previously was executive director of the Housing Authority of Cook County, Ill. … Jesse Solis is joining the House Budget GOP staff as a senior adviser. He previously was comms manager at the Tax Foundation and is a Ways and Means Committee alum. … Brian Garcia will be acting comms director for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. He’ll continue to work for Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) as well. …

… Crystal Tully is joining Wiley’s government relations team as special counsel. She most recently was general counsel for investigations and nominations at the Senate Armed Services Committee, and is a Senate Commerce alum. … Sarah McHaney is now director of marketing and business development at Precision Strategies. She previously was director of comms for Grid and is a Bully Pulpit Interactive alum. … Ian Linnabary is now scheduler for Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah). He previously staffed the congressman’s reelection campaign.

ENGAGED — Dylan Linke, a golf professional at Washington Golf and Country Club, surprised Kelsey Cooper, deputy chief of staff for comms for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, with a proposal in Paul’s office Friday, with the help of her coworkers. The couple met in high school in 2006 in Palos Verdes, Calif., and were set up by mutual friends on a double date in Redondo Beach so they would have a date for winter formals. PicAnother pic

WEEKEND WEDDING — Jason Rodriguez, chief of staff to Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), and Dao Nguyen, principal at Cornerstone Government Affairs, got married Saturday at Front & Palmer in Philadelphia, with Norberto Salinas officiating. The couple met at the 2019 Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute gala. PicAnother picSPOTTED: Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Stephanie and Sean Murphy, Filemon and Rose Vela, Lee and Amanda Slater, Jim Cho, David Montes, Macey Matthews, Chris Davis and Brad Howard.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) … Reps. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), Sharice Davids (D-Kan.), Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) and John Sarbanes (D-Md.) … Airbnb’s Jay CarneyJoe Pompeo … McClatchy’s Michael WilnerAnthony ReyesJillian Lane Wyant of Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) office … Jon Ward Drew Griffin Jimmy Ryan … Waxman Strategies’ Kahaari Kenyatta Paul Horvath … Targeted Victory’s Kerry Rom and Johnny SrsichJennifer Garson … RAGA’s Johnny KoremenosJim PopkinBrian WeeksAlex Dilley … NP Strategy’s Tom McMahonJames Hooley Oren CassBobby MattinaRichard KeilJon Jukuri of the National Conference of State Legislatures … Anne Brady Perron … former Rep. Richard Baker (R-La.) ... Ron NehringJohn Michael GonzalezMatt Butler ... Bryan PetrichLauryn Higgins ... Brandon MacGillis ... Gene Fynes ... POLITICO’s Bianca Robles Peter BhatiaEmma Kaplan

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