It’s rare to have an open congressional seat in Rhode Island. So when there is one, ambitious pols pounce on what could literally be a once-in-a-generation shot to go to Washington. More than a dozen Democrats have declared their candidacy for Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District — a crowded field that has formed before outgoing Democratic Rep. David Cicilline, who has represented the district for over a decade, even officially resigns. He’s set to leave Congress in just a few weeks to become CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation, a philanthropic organization in the state. It’s a reliably blue district, all but guaranteeing the victor of the Democratic primary will prevail in the general election. Those Democrats lining up include Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, who was first appointed to the role in 2021 but won reelection last year, and Gabe Amo, who recently left his White House post to pursue a bid. There’s also a host of local elected officials, like state Reps. Marvin Abney, Nathan Biah and Stephen Casey; state Sens. Sandra Cano and Ana Quezada; and John Goncalves, a member of the Providence City Council. Nick Autiello, a former staffer to then-Gov. Gina Raimondo; former state Rep. Aaron Regunberg; Stephanie Beauté, who unsuccessfully ran for secretary of state last year; and renewable energy investor Don Carlson are also among those in the fray. “None of them — not even the lieutenant governor — none of them are a household name,” said Joe Fleming, a political analyst and pollster in the state. No Republicans have declared. Some big names declined to run — like Helena Foulkes, who lost in the Democratic primary for governor last year, and state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi — and there is no clear cut frontrunner in the field, operatives say. It’s not guaranteed that all of these hopefuls will stay in the race, and more can jump in. There’s still plenty of time: Nomination papers are due in mid-July, the primary is on Sept. 5 and the general election is Nov. 7. Because there are so many candidates — and because it’s a special election, which some in the state estimate could draw as little as 30,000 voters — the winner probably won’t be pulling in that many votes, possibly as low as 4,000. Not helping the fact is that the stakes are fairly low: The seat is reliably Democratic, and no balance of power in the chamber is at play here. “There’s no argument that one Democrat is protecting the seat more than another,” said Katie Nee Zambrano, who managed Democratic Rep. Seth Magaziner’s campaign last year in RI-02. “So what’s going to motivate donors here is really the personal relationships. … It’s just so much easier for Rhode Island donors to say, ‘I like you all, I’m not going to start picking and choosing.’” Fleming said he expects some paid media — but money is required to run ads. And when there’s so many people jockeying for the same spot, that may be hard to come by. Some candidates have already pulled in more than $100,000 and some, like Carlson, could self-fund their bid. Even still, operatives predict that it’s going to be more about building grassroots support and getting local officials to rally behind a candidate to help voter turnout rather than a big media buy election. Nee Zambrano said she’ll be keeping an eye on local groups, like abortion rights, environmental and progressive-leaning ones, to see if they back any candidate, many of whom have similar stances on such issues. Even if the groups don’t invest a lot of money, such endorsements could tip the scale in such a low-turnout race, she said. And given that so many candidates serve in the state legislature, labor groups may stay out of the mix until the session is over in June. Matos claimed the first significant national endorsement of the election from BOLD PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm, as well as backing from scores of local officials. Another factor that could come into play: the diversity of the field. Many of the candidates are people of color, and there are a number of women running for the post. Rhode Island has never elected a Democratic woman to Congress, and the current congressional delegation is all white men. “Right now it's just very quiet, and every day somebody else gets in,” said Kate Coyne-McCoy, a Democratic consultant in the state. “We have yet to see anybody make a first strike. It hasn't really gotten on yet. But it needs to, because it's a short window.” Happy Monday, and welcome to May. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Kentucky primary: 15 Days until the Mississippi primary: 99 Days until the Louisiana primary: 166 Days until the 2023 election: 190 Days until the 2024 election: 554
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