Friday, May 19, 2023

💥How this Improving Trend Could Surprise and Reverse

Good morning. Investors can generally make money following the day's headlines. But it often also...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Investors can generally make money following the day's headlines. But it often also pays to consider alternative scenarios. Right now, inflation is coming down on a year-over-year basis. But what if it were to surge higher?

With inflation expectations now at 20 year lows, it's a reasonable question to ask. A surge in oil prices, or a resurgence of supply chain problems, could see inflation bump meaningfully higher, even with interest rates well off of zero percent.

Given what we've seen in the markets over the past few years, traders should be mindful of that kind of tail risk. It's not the kind of thing to bet heavily on, at least for now. But it does suggest that having some hedge trades in place, such as gold, could be prudent here.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,535.97 +0.34%
S&P 4,198.01 +0.94%
NASDAQ 12,688.84 +1.51%
*As of market close
Stocks soared higher again, on optimism over debt ceiling talks.
Oil dipped 1.2 percent, closing at $71.99 per barrel.
Gold dropped 1.2 percent, ending the day at $1,960 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies moved lower, with Bitcoin at $26,747 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
This Trade Is Down, But Clearly Isn't Out
Most investors didn't expect the banking sector to get into trouble this year. Generally, rising interest rates are good for banks. They make fewer loans, albeit at higher rates. However, many banks used the low-rate era to invest in Treasury bonds at lower yields.

That's led to the second, third, and fourth-largest bank failures in U.S. history this year. It's possible that they won't be the last. But while the banking sector is down, it's not quite out.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Callon Petroleum Company (CPE)
Steven Webster, a director at Callon Petroleum Company (CPE), recently picked up 10,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 1 percent, and came to a total cost just over $302,000.

This follows up on a 50,000 share buy made by the director the week before, which increased his holdings by 7 percent, and which came to a total cost of $1.55 million. Another director made a buy for 250 shares in February, at a cost just under $9,800.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Bausch Health Companies (BHC)
Pharmaceutical company Bausch Health Companies (BHC) has dropped nearly 40 percent over the past year. One trader sees a further decline in the coming months.

That's based on the July $8 puts. With 63 days until expiration, 10,001 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 121, for an 83-fold jump in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.08 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Gas Prices Start to Slide

With oil near a 52-week low, gasoline prices have held up strongly. That's starting to change, however, Memorial Day marks the start of the summer driving season. That could see increased demand, which may mitigate any drop in gas prices over the summer, even if oil prices remain in the $70 range.
Global Debt Nears $305 Trillion

According to the Institute of International Finance, global debt rose by $8.3 trillion in the first quarter of the year, closing in on $305 trillion. The rise has occurred as central banks around the world have been raising interest rates to curb inflation. Debt levels initially fell when central banks started raising rates last year, but now global debt is about $45 trillion higher than pre-pandemic levels.
AI Regulation Bill Introduced in Senate

A bill has been introduced by Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado to create a federal agency responsible for regulating artificial intelligence. The bill would also expand on the definition of an algorithmic process, and the bill calls for identifying systematically important companies to the AI industry.
Deutsche Bank to Pay $75 Million to Settle Epstein Suit

Deutsche Bank (DB) has agreed to pay $75 million to settle a civil complaint filed by victims of Jeffrey Epstein. The suit contended that the bank helped to facilitate Epstein's trafficking ring. The bank did not have to admit wrongdoing as part of the settlement.
Micron Investing $3.6 Billion in Japan

Semiconductor Micron Technologies (MU) is investing up to 500 billion yen ($3.6 billion) in Japan over the next few years. The move will increase Japan's market share of semiconductor manufacturing, and strengthen global supply chains for manufacturers of technologies looking to move outside of China.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
TTWO  11.654%
BBWI  10.575%
NFLX 9.219%
SNPS 8.242%
CPRT 7.543%
BOTTOM
TGT 4.594%
BIDU 4.406%
JD 3.923%
MOH 3.537%
NEM 3.341%

Quote of the Day
We think a deal – or a framework of a deal – is right around the corner – and likely in days, not weeks. However, like all negotiations, there is a chance that we could see them die before they are revived, but regardless, we think the destination is clear. Congress will raise the debt ceiling – and likely through the presidential election – meaning that market will not likely have to contend with the debt ceiling until early 2025 (at the earliest, given emergency measures).
- Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at Pimco, on the likelihood of a resolution to the debt ceiling for a considerable amount of time, which could lead to a move higher for stocks as the major uncertainty is taken off the table.

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