Friday, May 19, 2023

AOC's warning to Joe Biden

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) speaks in front of the U.S. Capitol.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, now in her fifth year in Congress, has learned how to use her unique influence to try to affect legislation, even when she’s not at the table. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

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DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Zelenskyy to attend G7 summit in person,” by FT’s Henry Foy, Kana Inagaki and Demetri Sevastopulo in Hiroshima

JUST POSTED — Michael Kruse profiles Florida first lady CASEY DeSANTIS: “The Casey DeSantis Problem: ‘His Greatest Asset and His Greatest Liability’”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: TRUMP WORLD’S NEW DeSANTIS ATTACK AD — Meridith McGraw reports that MAGA Inc. PAC is launching a new ad airing on Fox News, CNN and Newsmax. The ad is also running today in four Iowa markets (Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Davenport and Sioux City) and on WMUR in New Hampshire.

The spot attacks Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ previous support for a national sales tax with corny but catchy lyrics sung to the tune of “Old MacDonald Had a Farm.” Here’s a sample: “Ron ‘DeSalesTax’ had a plan / To make you pay more / With a sales tax here, and a sales tax there / Here a tax, there a tax, everywhere a sales tax.” Watch the ad

YOUR CLASSIC GOOD NEWS/BAD NEWS SITUATION — “The debt ceiling deal could make America’s STD problem much worse,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ — Washington is at the stage of the debt limit standoff where the prospect of a bad deal is pushing prominent members of Congress to go public with their concerns. This week, it’s mostly progressives.

They are pushing Biden to use the 14th Amendment, warning him about policy concessions on key issues like work requirements for safety-net programs, and wondering if his recent decisions on the environment and immigration are a harbinger of how they will be treated in any budget agreement with House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY.

We sat down with AOC yesterday in her periwinkle-walled office in the Cannon House Office Building just before she drove home to New York for the weekend.

A lot has changed in Washington for progressives. In the first two years of the Biden era, with Democrats controlling the House, AOC and her allies could block any piece of legislation if they held together. Their big fights were with moderate Dems over how many trillions of dollars to spend on Biden’s agenda. And they had easy access to the White House with RON KLAIN as chief of staff.

Now they are in the minority and outside the negotiating rooms. Their big fight is trying to stop the president from caving to McCarthy. And over at the White House, with Klain gone and JEFF ZIENTS as his successor, it’s not really clear who they should call anymore.

AOC is keenly aware of these changed circumstances. Now in her fifth year in Congress, she’s learned how to use her unique influence to try to affect legislation, even when she’s not at the table. And she has a few ideas about how House progressives can flex their muscles right now.

You can listen to the full interview with AOC on this week’s Playbook Deep Dive podcast. What follows are some key excerpts.

 

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On the hand Kevin McCarthy is playing in the debt limit talks: “What is really important, I think, to understand here is that … no matter what, Kevin McCarthy … he needs Democrats to bail him out. This is not a situation of him holding all of the cards. … His party is not united. And not only is it not united by a little … most of the evidence is pointing that he only has two-thirds of his caucus and he may need many, many Democratic votes. …

“Kevin McCarthy does not know how many votes he has. He can’t even go to the White House and say, ‘If you give me this, I will have X votes; if you give me that, I'll have Y votes.’ And so when you start to open that door — when there is no concrete offer on the other side — it just kind of becomes a bank raid.”

On the cold, hard math of any deal in the House: “McCarthy does not have the votes in his caucus. And not by four or five, but by 20, 30, 40 or potentially 50 votes. The White House needs to understand: How many Democrats do they have that would actually vote for these kinds of cuts? You have the Progressive Caucus right now — that is about 100 members. And many of them [are] probably automatically off the board [on a proposal with cuts]. You have the Congressional Black Caucus that just issued a statement [on work requirements] today, many of whom are not in the Progressive Caucus. … That brings you now to, maybe, about 100 to 150 Democrats potentially off the board. … If they need 50 [votes], that really starts to make the Democratic ability to opt into a deal when Kevin McCarthy is so short — it starts making that math difficult.”

On what the debt limit talks are really about: “What this moment is about [is] power. … This is not about debt. This is not about [the] deficit. And that’s evidenced by the fact that they’re trying to even put permitting reform on the table here. This is in no way a substantive conversation from the Republican side. This is about a desire to build, communicate and exert more power than they have.”

On progressive backlash to Biden’s remarks on work requirements: “I do not personally think that we should take stock from one comment in one moment. I think it's important to read a pattern. And in more recent comments, I've seen him kind of walking that back.”

A quote by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is pictured.

On whether Biden should exercise the 14th Amendment: “I think it should be on the table. And I think that the grounds for it are legitimate.”

On the progressives’ relationship with Jeff Zients, compared to Ron Klain: “I do think it has shifted pretty significantly. I don't think it's a similar dynamic. … The dynamic with Ron Klain was very open. … Right now, you know, for me personally, it’s hard to tell sometimes what is getting through [to the White House] and what isn’t. … From what I've been hearing with some grassroots partners, they don’t feel the same receptiveness or true partnership … that they had experienced previously.”

On how she thinks about using her public influence at a moment like this: “No matter who is or isn't in the room, public opinion always is. Public opinion is the unspoken fourth or fifth person in the room, and it dramatically shapes the dynamics, the incentives and the decisions that our leaders make.”

On ELON MUSK’s ownership of Twitter: “We just saw with the Turkish elections last week that he is willing to manipulate the platform in order to violate free speech and violate principles of free speech globally in order to serve authoritarian leaders.”

On whether Democrats should hope to face Trump again in 2024: “I don't think we should ever be rooting for Trump in any situation. … 2020 was not a blowout. We have to really understand that as long as the Electoral College is in place, these elections are very often decided — sometimes by tens of thousands of votes — in a very small handful of states. … There are a lot of times that I think people overestimate Trump in certain areas. But they still continue to underestimate Trump, I think, in his ability to carry a message and carry a base.”

MEANWHILE ON THE RIGHT — The House Freedom Caucus released a statement yesterday demanding that McCarthy suspend negotiations until the Senate clears the House GOP bill raising the debt limit: “There should be no further discussion until the Senate passes the legislation.” We’re sure CHUCK SCHUMER will get right on that!

Related reads: 

“Most say pair debt limit increase with deficit cuts, but few following debate closely: AP-NORC poll,” by AP’s Darlene Superville and Fatima Hussein

“How long would it take Congress to approve a debt deal?” by Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes

“White House negotiators signal concessions on work requirements in debt talks,” by Meredith Lee Hill

“Kyrsten Sinema Is ‘More and More Confident’ of Deal to Avoid U.S. Debt Default,” by Bloomberg’s Laura Litvan, Kailey Leinz and Joe Mathieu

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line and tell us who you would like to hear on Deep Dive: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest column: “Hurricane Trump Is Coming — And Washington Hasn’t Bothered to Prepare”

 

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BIDEN’S FRIDAY: The president earlier today participated in a working lunch with G-7 leaders, participated in a working session on Ukraine, toured the Itsukushima Shrine and participated in a working dinner with G-7 leaders.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ FRIDAY (all times Eastern):

10:30 a.m.: The VP and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will depart D.C. en route to Los Angeles.

6:20 p.m.: Harris will tour the Baby2Baby Facility and discuss maternal health.

THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out.

 

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

French President Emmanuel Macron, left,  gestures to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida after laying a wreath at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park in Hiroshima, Japan, with President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

French President Emmanuel Macron, left, gestures to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida after laying a wreath at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park in Hiroshima, Japan, with President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Friday, May 19. | Susan Walsh/Pool via AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — As DeSantis prepares to (officially) jump into the 2024 presidential field, he is already signaling to his allies that he’s looking beyond the GOP primary, NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Nicholas Nehamas report.

“You have basically three people at this point that are credible in this whole thing,” DeSantis said on the call organized by the Never Back Down super PAC, which an NYT reporter listened to. “Biden, Trump and me. And I think of those three, two have a chance to get elected president — Biden and me, based on all the data in the swing states, which is not great for the former president and probably insurmountable because people aren’t going to change their view of him.”

Meanwhile: The Messenger’s Marc Caputo reports that “the DeSantis campaign’s operatives are ‘leak-testing’ by intentionally giving out false dates and information to see if it goes public — and therefore determine whom they can’t trust.”

HALEY’S COMMENT — NIKKI HALEY made a significant statement on the Jan. 6 Capitol attack during a campaign stop in Iowa yesterday, calling it “a terrible day” and stating that anyone who broke the law that day “should pay the price,” NBC’s Ali Vitali reports. To state the obvious: “The new comments put Haley at odds with former President Donald Trump, her one-time boss and the current frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination.”

MAY I HAVE A WORD? — In a speech he delivered in New Hampshire last week, former VP MIKE PENCE lifted words almost directly from an address Trump delivered nearly four years ago, according to prepared remarks seen by Adam Wren. But the similarities were perhaps unbeknownst to Pence: The speechwriter responsible for Pence’s remarks worked as a speechwriter in Trump’s orbit at the time he delivered his speech, Adam writes, and “inadvertently” recycled his own words, according to a Pence source.

HOW IT’S PLAYING — “Anti-abortion leaders worry they may have to oppose Trump if he doesn’t back national ban,” by Meridith McGraw and Natalie Allison

BIRDS OF A FEATHER … “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. names Dennis Kucinich as 2024 campaign manager,” by NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald and Henry Gomez

… FLOCK TOGETHER: “Meet the Wall Street executive funding Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s anti-vaccine group,” by CNBC’s Brian Schwartz

CONGRESS

DEMS’ DIFI DILEMMA — With Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN’s return to the Senate, Democrats in both chambers are trying to show deference and respect to the long-serving California Democrat as they adjust to the new reality of Feinstein’s condition, Katherine Tully-McManus and Burgess Everett report.

“She is the same serious-minded, determined Dianne,” said Rep. ANNA ESHOO (D-Calif.), who’s known Feinstein since the senator was mayor of San Francisco. Eshoo added of Feinstein’s critics: “Thou doth protest too much. I think Shakespeare was right.”

Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), getting downright existential: “It’s a very hard situation because, let’s face it, when I’m 89 years old, I’ll be long dead. Trust me.”

The view from California: “Feinstein Faces Growing Scrutiny, but Voters Are Still Divided on Her Fitness,” by NYT’s Thomas Fuller

INVESTIGATION INVENTORY — “GOP mulls how to make its Afghanistan oversight matter,” by Anthony Adragna: “Afghanistan is a far trickier oversight for the Republican Party than the base-pleasing topics of border security or the Biden family. That’s because, as even some GOP lawmakers acknowledge, it’s not clear whether the 2021 pullout still resonates with voters.”

THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “Washington’s new AI push could be derailed by old social media fights,” by Brendan Bordelon

BANK ON IT — “‘Single biggest threat’: Warren, Tester warn against bank consolidation,” by Katy O’Donnell

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

MAJOR MEA CULPA — In a stunning reversal, U.S. officials are “walking back claims that a recent strike in Syria killed an influential al-Qaeda figure, following assertions by the dead man’s family that he had no ties to terrorists but was a father of 10 tending to his sheep when he was slain by an American missile,” WaPo’s Omar Nezhat, Meg Kelly, Alex Horton and Imogen Piper report from Qorqanya, Syria. “LOTFI HASSAN MISTO, 56, whose family identified him as the victim of a Hellfire missile attack on May 3, was a former bricklayer who lived quietly in this town in northwest Syria, according to interviews with his brother, son and six others who knew him.”

The view from the U.S.: “In the weeks since the attack, U.S. military officials have refused to identify publicly who their target was, how the apparent error occurred, whether a legitimate terrorist leader escaped and why some in the Pentagon maintain Misto was a member of al-Qaeda despite his family’s denials.”

 

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JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court punts in Title 42 immigration fight,” by Josh Gerstein: “Despite their move deep-sixing the Title 42 fight, the justices could soon be confronted by legal issues arising from the Biden administration’s attempt to replace the pandemic-related rules with other policies designed to discourage asylum-seekers from simply showing up at border stations or crossing without being checked by immigration officers.”

POLICY CORNER

ICYMI — “Debt fight, China shadow Biden’s climate goals: Takeaways from POLITICO’s Energy Summit,” by James Bikales and Kelsey Tamborrino

WAR IN UKRAINE

WHAT’S $3 BILLION BETWEEN FRIENDS? — “Pentagon Says Accounting Mistake Frees Up $3 Billion More for Ukraine,” by NYT’s Karoun Demirjian, Edward Wong and Eric Schmitt: “Pentagon officials realized their mistake almost two months ago, according to a senior White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss accounting processes. But instead of placating Congress’s concerns, the revelation was met with frustration and anger, as some lawmakers criticized the Biden administration for what they said was an extremely troublesome error.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

DISNEY VS. DeSANTIS — “Disney scuttles $1B Florida development plan amid feud with DeSantis,” by Andrew Atterbury in Tallahassee

THAT WAS FAST — “Montana TikTok ban faces first court challenge,” by Rebecca Kern

VALLEY TALK

MUSK READ — “False claims of a stolen election thrive unchecked on Twitter even as Musk promises otherwise,” by AP’s Ali Swenson

THE ART OF THE THIEL — “Peter Thiel Is Latest Billionaire Said to Have Met With Jeffrey Epstein,” by NYT’s Matthew Goldstein and Ryan Mac

SUNDAY SO FAR …

ABC “This Week”: Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas). Panel: Donna Brazile, Rick Klein, Sarah Isgur and Marianna Sotomayor.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Miami Mayor Francis Suarez … Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) … Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) … Scott Gottlieb.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Panel: Kevin Roberts, Susan Page, Howard Kurtz and Juan Williams.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.). Panel: Dan Balz, Carlos Curbelo, Carol Lee and Symone Sanders-Townsend.

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Don Bacon had a pretty crappy experience at DCA yesterday.

Ted Cruz wants to investigate Bud Light.

A Vivek Ramaswamy PAC is playing, uh, loose with its graphics.

Kate Flannery (aka Meredith from “The Office”) probably doesn’t have a future career on the Hill.

Salman Rushdie made his first public appearance since he was stabbed nine months ago.

PLAYBOOK REAL ESTATE SECTION — “An Equestrian Property Near Washington, D.C., Lists for $17.995 Million,” by WSJ’s Sarah Paynter

IN MEMORIAM — Allison Kennedy, 36, died suddenly on May 10th. She was the director of government relations for the Advocates for Highway & Auto Safety, where she worked for over a decade. She leaves behind her husband Brian, policy director for the House Committee on Homeland Security, and her two young sons, Christopher (2) and Callahan (3 months). Read the full obituary

“Sam Zell, 81, Tycoon Whose Big Newspaper Venture Went Bust, Dies,” by NYT’s Robert McFadden: “In a career of spectacular deals celebrated mostly in boardrooms and financial columns, Mr. Zell’s venture into the publishing world as chairman of the Tribune Company proved to be a resounding failure, a five-year descent into a maelstrom of rancor, downsizing, management scandals and bankruptcy.”

SPOTTED: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) getting a haircut at Salon Omer yesterday morning. … Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and her fiancé Patrick Bryant walking their dog last night in Navy Yard.

OUT AND ABOUT — The Aerospace Industries Association’s Board of Governors, in town for their biannual meeting, gathered at the French Ambassador Laurent Bili’s residence last night in Kalorama along with members of Congress and administration officials for a prelude to the 54th Paris Air Show. SPOTTED: Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and John Boozman (R-Ark.), Reps. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), Tom Kean (R-N.J.), Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), Bob Latta (R-Ohio) and Jim Himes (D-Conn.), Billy Nolen, Eric Fanning, Tom Gentile, Chris Kastner, Scott Donnelly, Amy Gowder, Naz Durakoğlu, Heather Podesta, Tammy Haddad and Christina Sevilla.

The Beer Institute hosted its Kickoff to Summer event for members of Congress and their staff, media and beer industry leaders at the Bullpen yesterday evening. SPOTTED: Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), Paul Kane, Carl Hulse, Julie Tsirkin, Allison Pecorin, Timothy Nerozzi, Houston Keene, Sara Cook, Tom Snedeker, Brian Crawford, Susan Haney, Mary Jane Saunders, Danelle Kosmal, Bill Young, Alex Davidson, Annie Starke Lange, Jeff Guittard, Justin Lange, Kevin Kincheloe, Teresa Skala, David Caruolo, Will Kinzel, Nell Reilly, Richard Crawford, Matt Stanton and David Morgenstern.

TRANSITIONS — Qcells North America has added Debra DeShong as VP and head of comms and Hal Connolly as VP and head of public policy and government relations. DeShong previously was EVP of public affairs for PhRMA. Connolly previously was senior adviser for climate and sustainability at the Federal Railroad Administration. …

… Dan Smith will be president and CEO at the Consumer Data Industry Association. He most recently was EVP and head of regulatory affairs at the Consumer Bankers Association. … Rebecca Brocato has launched Stony Run, a strategic advisory firm. She previously was chief of staff of the Development Finance Corporation and NSC senior director for legislative affairs and is a State Department and Ben Cardin alum.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Jason Johnson, comms director for Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and comms adviser for the House Natural Resources Committee Dems, and Sofia Cortes, senior program coordinator at Banyan Global, got married Saturday in an oceanside ceremony at Villa Del Paraiso in Rosarito, Mexico. PicAnother pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Ashley MacLeay, director of external relations for the Independent Women’s Forum and national committeewoman for D.C. to the RNC, and Geoffrey MacLeay, counsel for Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) and a Trump Labor Department alum, welcomed Edward Geoffrey Gerard MacLeay yesterday morning. He came in at 7 lbs, 15.5 oz and 19.5 inches, and joins big brothers Michael and William. PicAnother pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) … Yebbie Watkins Allie Brandenburger … POLITICO’s Marcia Brown, Catherine Chang, Daejah Fontain and Kate Murphy Brian McKeonSydney Simon of Rep. Seth Moulton’s (D-Mass.) office … Anton Becker … Ernst & Young’s Bob SchellhasCynthia AlksneJessica Jennings of the National Association of Counties … Beth RossmanMary Hager of “Face the Nation” … Mike Reilly of MVAR Media … Poorvie Bishnoi of Monument Advocacy ... David Marin of Viatris … John Hlinko ... DSCC’s Margaret O’MearaCarol Guthrie of the OECD … Ian Clay of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation … John Laufer Samira Damavandi of the International Center for Research on Women … Cody Sargent of Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) office … Texas Tribune’s Rebekah Allen Bill DanversSamira Burns, whose HHS coworkers hope she’s taking the day off … Keith Richburg … former Rep. Brad Miller (D-N.C.) (7-0) … Destine Hicks Lundy

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