Tuesday, April 25, 2023

🚙It’s Crunch Time for the Credit Markets… Tread Lightly

Good morning. Rising interest rates have reduced demand for loans in everything from car payments...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Rising interest rates have reduced demand for loans in everything from car payments to home mortgages to business loans. However, there's also a crunch on the demand side of credit, as banks and other lenders have become wary about the strength of their loan portfolio.

This is leading to the rising potential for a credit crunch, where banks become totally unwilling to lend, no matter the project or interest rate. Regional banks remain under pressure, following the second and third-largest bank failures in U.S. history last month.

Investors should beware of a potential credit market lockup, which could spill over in to a big drop for the stock market. That means avoiding being overly speculative on the long side, and to look for trading opportunities betting on lower stocks in the coming months.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,875.40 +0.20%
S&P 4,137.04 +0.09%
NASDAQ 12,037.20 -0.29%
*As of market close
Stocks traded mixed on Monday, ahead of big tech earnings later this week.
Oil rose 1.2 percent, closing at $78.77 per barrel.
Gold rallied 0.4 percent, ending at $1,998 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded mixed, with Bitcoin hitting $27,340 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Amid Sticky Inflation, Stick With Defensive Consumer Giants
While we're coming up on the next Fed meeting, which could give a sign that the central bank's interest rate hikes are finally over, we're not out of the woods yet. Inflation has slowed over the past year, but it's still running at 5 percent.

That's one of its highest levels in decades, and more than twice the central bank's inflation target. Investors should still look for companies that can handle inflation by passing on the costs to their customers via higher prices.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: American Realty Investors (ARL)
Bradford Phillips, a director at American Realty Investors (ARL), recently bought 2,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 46 percent, and came to a total cost of $40,000.

This is the third time the director has bought shares in the past year, following two buys in the $35,000 range in the fall. There have been no other insider buys, or insider sales, over the past two years.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Hercules Technology Growth Capital (HTGC)
Business development company Hercules Technology Growth Capital (HTGC) has slid nearly 30 percent over the past year. One trader sees a similar drop occurring over the next few months.

That's based on the October $10 puts. With 178 days until expiration, 7,622 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 170, for a 45-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.60 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Insider Buying Ticks Up Following Banking Sector Chaos

Insider buying ticked up following the brief meltdown in the banking sector in March. Over 1,000 officers and directors at over 600 companies bought shares of their own stock, the highest level since last May. While sellers typically outnumber buyers among insiders, the ratio was most in favor for insider buys since last September.
Standard Chartered Sees $100,000 Bitcoin

Standard Chartered is calling for Bitcoin to rise to $100,000 this year. That would follow up on the 66 percent gains seen year-to-date by nearly quadrupling from a current price near $27,500. The analysis is based on the strengthening case for Bitcoin amid a collapse of overleveraged banks.
Bed Bath & Beyond Files for Bankruptcy

Retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is filing for bankruptcy protection. The company has closed over 400 stores over the past year, and will begin closing its 360 remaining locations. A number of other retailers are moving into vacant store space as commercial construction remains at record lows.
Disney Begins Second Round of Layoffs

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is started a second round of layoffs. The move will impact about 7,000 positions, with some of the largest cuts occurring at sports channel ESPN and at the company's theme parks. The company had its first round of layoffs last year, and a slowing economy and poor showing at the box office have impacted profitability.
Shopify Adds Direct Bill Payments

E-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP) is adding a new bill pay tool from B2B payments company Melio. That will allow customers to manage their expenses directly on the platform. The move is to strengthen the company's use, and allow users to spend less time on invoice and bill payments.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
FRC  10.203%
ALB  5.669%
MDT 4.561%
HAL 3.802%
MOH 3.096%
BOTTOM
CARR 7.508%
T 3.526%
KEY 3.408%
ZION 3.271%
FOX 3.18%

Quote of the Day
There's the continued push-pull of the fact that the economy has been a lot more resilient than many people expected and corporate earnings have held up pretty well, all things considered. You can kind of see the bull and bear case really right there in a nutshell as far as resilient economy with stronger-than-expected corporate earnings versus a very hot, very restrictive monetary policy coming from the Fed.
- Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, on the market's overall resilience amid a slowdown – but still strong – showing in both the economy and corporate earnings.

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