Friday, November 18, 2022

🤯 "Unprecedented"

Plus: Shades of Enron | Friday, November 18, 2022
 
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Axios Markets
By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Nov 18, 2022

It's Friday ... make sure you stock up for Thanksgiving this weekend! 🦃

🚨 Situational awareness: Just when you thought the Twitter situation couldn't get more bananas, hundreds of employees appeared to quit yesterday, leaving some wondering if the social network had enough folks left to keep it going.

Today's newsletter is 1,163 words, 4.5 minutes.

 
 
1 big thing: FTX's new chief takes aim at SBF
Photo Illustration of a printed photo of SBF surrounded by darts

Photo Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios. Photo: Bloomberg/Getty Images

 

The now-bankrupt FTX's new CEO, John Ray III, introduced himself with a bang yesterday, Axios' Kate Marino writes.

Driving the news: Four business days after FTX filed a surprise Chapter 11 case, FTX finally filed its "first day declaration," a document in which the company's executives tell the full backstory about why it sought bankruptcy protection.

Why it matters: The highly anticipated declaration is a truly jaw-dropping tale that reads like a guy haphazardly running a scam with some friends as opposed to an account of the inner workings of a global financial empire, which some of the world's most sophisticated investors recently valued at tens of billions of dollars.

  • Ray doesn't hold back. "Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls ... From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented," he writes.

The big picture: The filing is fascinating for how blatantly Ray takes aim at founder and former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF).

What they're saying: "It's very rare for the restructuring management team to come in, and right out of the gate just completely throw prior management under the bus like this," says Joe Pack, restructuring attorney and managing partner of Pack Law (he's not involved in the case).

  • "No one really understands yet exactly what's going on in this case. The professionals are figuring it out. But the one thing that they do understand is that the pre-petition directors and officers, specifically the founder, had to have done something bad," Pack tells Axios, of the contents of Ray's declaration.

Between the lines: In a typical bankruptcy — one that doesn't involve "unacceptable management practices" and "misuse of customer funds" (Ray's words) — pre-bankruptcy chief executives usually stay on for the sake of continuity, and to provide the benefit of their institutional knowledge.

  • After all, it's harder to reorganize if the people who know all of the things (like, you know, where the money is!) aren't even accessible.
  • Ray makes clear that SBF no longer speaks for the company he founded — calling him out for "continuing to make erratic and misleading public statements" — and says numerous times that balance sheets created under SBF's watch are not to be trusted.

The big question: Where are FTX's assets? It had no accounting department or cash management system, so even basics like where cash sits are a mystery. As for the digital assets, they've located "only a fraction" of what they hope to recover, according to the declaration.

  • Ray says he's leading an investigation with FTX lawyers at Sullivan & Cromwell, a team that includes two former regulators and a former prosecutor, and forensic and cybersecurity professionals. The company is also now in contact with "dozens of regulators" in the U.S. and around the world.

The bottom line: The adults have entered the room to clean up the mess.

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2. Catch up quick

💰 Masayoshi Son owes SoftBank $4.7 billion on side deals. (Bloomberg)

⚽️ Qatar bans beer sales at World Cup stadiums. (NYT)

📉 Rates for 30-year mortgages fell rapidly this week, to 6.61% from 7.08%. (Yahoo Finance)

🚘 GM CEO says its EVs will be profitable by 2025. (AP)

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3. Why the Enron scandal matters now
A demonstrator protests against the World Economic Forum and the Enron scandal in February 2002. The scandal stoked public outrage over the stock market. (PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP via Getty Images)

A demonstrator protests against the World Economic Forum and the Enron scandal in February 2002. The scandal stoked public outrage over the stock market. Photo: Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images

 

John Ray III, now of FTX fame, helped clean up one of corporate America's biggest collapses 20 years ago: Enron.

  • History isn't repeating, per se, but it rhymes, Emily writes.

Why it matters: If FTX's blowup is anything like Enron's, that means big changes are on the horizon for the systems that enabled the crypto company's rise and fall.

  • Enron was a Wall Street darling and the seventh-largest public company in the U.S. — before the Houston-based energy firm became the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history to that point. It was the first major corporate collapse of the 21st century.

The intrigue: Ray is considered an expert at the bankruptcy process — back in the early 2000s he was able to wrest billions of dollars from big banks on behalf of Enron's creditors, at a time when the process appeared to have stalled.

Catch up quick: Enron used accounting shenanigans to make it appear profitable, essentially hiding its financial losses in shell companies; it also marked future potential profits as actual profits.

  • The use of supposedly separate companies to pull off financial chicanery seems similar to what FTX has done, argues David Z. Morris in a piece on CoinDesk.
  • Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling, who ran the company, were viewed as brilliant. They were both convicted on criminal charges.
  • Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers laid out the parallels between FTX and Enron in an interview last week: "The smartest guys in the room. Not just financial error but — certainly from the reports — whiffs of fraud," he said. "Vast explosion of wealth that nobody quite understands where it comes from."

Fallout: The Enron bankruptcy not only helped transform, for a time, the way Americans viewed public companies and the stock market (shady/too risky!) but also led to the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in 2002, a law that tightened up accounting rules for public companies.

What to watch: Public sentiment and regulations. So far it's not at all clear if the FTX scandal will move the needle on either.

  • FTX's collapse seems to mostly have confirmed people's priors on crypto lots of people saying they knew it was a scam; while true believers stick to their guns and keep bitcoin prices steady.
  • As for the regulators, stay tuned.

Go deeper.

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4. 🧐 Bearish bets build
Data: CBOE, FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

The market is actually up this month, but bearish bets are building fast, Matt writes.

The big picture: A measure of the sentiment from the options markets shows that bets on falling stock prices have sharply outpaced those expecting prices to rise.

  • This measure, known as the CBOE U.S. equity put/call ratio, has hit the highest — or most bearish — level on record in recent days.

How it works: The measure is a ratio of bets on falling prices, or "puts," versus bets on rising prices, known as "calls."

Yes, but: This might sound like a reason to run away from stocks now. But oddly, market analysts usually see extreme levels of bearishness in investor sentiment as good news for stocks — a "contrarian indicator."

  • That means when it hits extreme levels of either glee or gloom, stocks tend to then go in the opposite direction — as all the negative or positive sentiment is already priced into the market.

What we're watching: The only thing that seems to matter for stocks right now is what the Fed does with interest rates.

  • Signs of slowing inflation — and expectations the Fed could slow rate hikes as a result — are what's given the S&P 500 a lift lately.
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1 thing Emily still likes: Twitter. Yep, even now. It keeps me up to date on news and research; I connect with sources there. And I've even made some real-life friends along the way. Sure, it's a mess. But hey, life is messy.

You can follow me @EmilyRPeck, until the ship goes down — and maybe it won't! (Matt's there, too: @MatthewPhillips.)

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Today's newsletter was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece.

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