Hi, China Watchers. This is Xi Jinping's glide path week to a third term as China's paramount leader. And my Brussels-based colleague Stuart Lau and I have a transatlantic analysis of what Xi's foreign policy settings hold for China's relations with the U.S. and the E.U. We'll also parse the language in Xi's work report speech to measure what his real priorities are, scrutinize Secretary of State Antony Blinken's warning about Xi's Taiwan intentions and look for the lessons in the People's Liberation Army's last attempt to invade Taiwan. Amid the bilateral relationship gloom, we'll profile a book that votes for hope by urging a renewed U.S. diplomacy push aimed to moderate Xi's policies. Let's get to it. — Phelim Chinese President Xi Jinping has made clear at the ongoing 20th Party Congress in Beijing that U.S.-China relations aren't going to improve anytime soon. Xi's much anticipated speech on the opening day of the ruling party meeting framed foreign relations - including those with the U.S. - as a struggle between China and "external attempts to suppress and contain" it. Xi's speech distilled the key points of his "work report" which will guide the ruling Chinese Communist Party's domestic and foreign policy priorities until 2027 Siege mentality: And Xi depicted the CCP as a guardian of the one-party authoritarian state facing unspecified threats of "infiltration, sabotage, subversion, and separatist activities by hostile forces." The 20th Party Congress , a gathering of more than 2,000 CCP officials, is widely expected to conclude on Saturday with the confirmation of Xi's third term as the country's paramount leader. And the tone and substance of his speech differed sharply from the self-congratulatory English-language video that CCP propaganda minions started circulating on Tuesday Xi's implicit messaging: A key priority of his third term is to defend China's "sovereignty and territorial integrity," key components of his combative concept of " national rejuvenation ." That's code for pursuing "reunification" with Taiwan, backed by Xi's warning that the CCP "will never promise to renounce the use of force" to assert its claim to the self-governing island. The Congress began just four days after the Biden administration released a National Security Strategy that focused on China as "the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it." Grim outlook: Xi's speech provides a window into the Chinese leader's increasingly bleak view of the future of U.S.-China relations and could intensify moves by the U.S. to pursue policies and partnerships to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. "What is striking … is how pessimistic China is in terms of assessing its overall security environment, particularly its external environment," said BONNY LIN, former country director for China at the Office of the Secretary of Defense and director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Many of the measures it lists China as needing to undertake are intended to prepare the PRC population for domestic or external crises. By the numbers: The good people at Capital Economics did the hard work of analyzing key words and phrases in Xi's 25,000-word speech and comparing their usage in past Party Congress speeches by Xi's predecessors including HU JINTAO, JIANG ZEMIN and ZHAO ZIYANG . The results are telling. Xi mentioned "security" 91 times in his speech, compared to 36 times by Hu in 2012 and zero references by Zhao in 1987. Conversely, Zhao mentioned "reform" 136 times in his 1987 speech, while Xi's 48 mentions of the word on Sunday marked the lowest tally of any Chinese leader on record. Perhaps mindful of China's rocky economic and foreign policy environment, Xi used Xi's used the word "persevere" 168 times on Sunday, outpacing its 128 mentions in Xi's 2012 speech and far above the 36 times Zhao said the word in 1987. Read more analysis of Xi's speech in my story here . Xi's looming third term: Capitol Hill reacts The White House won't talk about the looming extension of Xi Jinping's leadership."I don't want to comment from here on any internal political process of other countries," White House spokesperson KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said on Monday when asked about Xi's anticipated third term. But several U.S. lawmakers with opinions on Xi — none of them kind — have been freely sharing them. And those comments have resonance with voters. The results of a Pew Research Center survey released Wednesday indicates that 71 percent of Americans consider a third term for Xi as either "somewhat serious" or "very serious" for the U.S. I've distilled the lawmakers' highlights into four distinct categories of critique. Xi the oppressor Sens. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) argued that Xi's leadership will guarantee continued repression on multiple fronts: against Tibet, Xinjiang's Muslim Uyghur population and through " digital authoritariasm " — a reference to the use of digital technology to enable pervasive surveillance and control of the Chinese population. "Xi securing a third term will only continue this path of repression, economic coercion and regional instability," the senators said in a statement. Xi the threat Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) warned that Xi's third term will empower him to intensify his increasingly aggressive projection of Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific — threatening to destabilize the entire region. Xi's "absolute control" of the ruling Chinese Communist party is likely to embolden him to move from aggressive rhetoric to a military conflict setting, he said. "Expect a one man-ruled CCP to be more willing to wage war over Taiwan, more repressive at home and abroad, more dominating of business and more insistent on overturning the U.S.-led rules-based world order," Rubio said in a statement. Xi the sham Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) issued a call to arms for a combined U.S. government and private sector effort to decouple the U.S. economy from Chinese supply chains in order to strike a blow against the "tyranny" of Xi's rule. Scott argued that countering China's potential for aggression requires the U.S. to dramatically upgrade its military capabilities. "Xi does not want peace and under his leadership, the Chinese Communist Party has chosen to be America's enemy." Xi the rogue Sen. MARSHA BLACKBURN (R-Tenn.) said that the U.S. and its allies are at high risk from Xi's pursuit of "total dominance" in areas including global governance and tech. Blackburn argued that threat demands a stern U.S. response. "The United States must stand firm against this rogue dictator and bolster our national defense to ensure he does not succeed," Blackburn said in a statement . What's Next WHAT WE WILL BE WATCHING: First, who's going to replace Premier LI KEQIANG, who has already reached the constitutional limit of two terms? It would be seen as a compromise decision if, for instance, current party No. 4 WANG YANG takes his place because he didn't come from Xi's faction of the Party. If LI QIANG, the Shanghai boss, gets the premiership on the other hand, that would be a strong signal of Xi's power. It'd also be a big career jump for Li since all the recent prime ministers, like incumbent Li Keqiang, have served previously as deputy PMs. Second, will any of those joining the top team come from outside Xi's clique, like current vice-premier HU CHUNHUA , who was once floated as a possible next-generation leader until Xi's term limit was scrapped? MISSING FIGURES: China's statistics bureau made the unusual decision on Monday to delay the release of economic indicators scheduled for publication this week. One of those figures is China's third-quarter GDP, which economists say could show further weakening of China's economic growth due to the "zero-Covid" policy — something that Xi has already vowed to maintain at the Congress. Is Xiconomy working? Bloomberg passed a damning judgment: Xi's "renewed pledge to grow China into a 'medium-developed country' by 2035 implies a doubling in the size of the economy from 2020 levels … a challenging goal given the nation's slower growth path." Meanwhile in Europe All of the E.U.'s 27 foreign ministers gathered in Luxembourg on Monday to begin a process of rethinking Europe's China policy. It's a remarkable moment, not only because of the coincidental timing with the Beijing gala, but also because it shakes up the EU's stated policy. For the first time: The official document after the meeting refers to China not just as a competitor, which is the official line, but a "tough competitor." There's also an emphasis on "avoiding to turn dependencies into vulnerabilities." BEHIND CLOSED DOORS: Most EU ministers agreed that the relationship with China is shifting more toward competition and rivalry, even though they're still keen to highlight partnership especially on climate change. "Everyone is pretty much on the same page," an EU diplomat told us. Read our entire special 20th Party Congress transatlantic newsletter special edition here . TRANSLATING WASHINGTON —WARNER CALLS OUT CORPORATE CHINA TIES: Senate Intelligence Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) slammed Apple and Tesla on Tuesday for their reliance on Chinese supply and production chains linked to possible human rights abuses and environmental degradation. Warner accused the firms of prioritizing Chinese market access while turning "a blind eye" to those factors in an interview with Bloomberg . Warner warned that lawmakers will take steps to limit Chinese access to U.S. emerging technologies including quantum computing and advanced energy systems. Neither Apple nor Tesla responded to a request for comment. —BLINKEN: CHINA ACCELERATING TAIWAN 'REUNIFICATION' TIMETABLE: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN warned on Monday of China's "change in approach" to "reunification" with Taiwan. "Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline," Blinken said . "And if peaceful means didn't work, then it would employ coercive means, and possibly… forceful means – to achieve its objectives." "It was a puzzling statement… what [Blinken] seems to be saying is that the status quo across the strait has been shifting because of China's actions toward Taiwan in the past few years," said M. TAYLOR FRAVEL, director of the security studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "There are real risks of over-interpreting what he said, especially in light of other, more detailed assessments." Meanwhile POLITICO's MAGGIE MILLER reported on Wednesday that China's Taiwan threat made the agenda at the Mandiant mWise conference in Washington, D.C. A China-Taiwan conflict is "a scary thought … [but] needs to be a consideration in risk registers, and you need to have a plan," ROB JOYCE, the National Security Agency's director of cybersecurity, told attendees.
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