🌳Energy Markets May Provide a Nasty Surprise

Good morning. While gas prices are well off their peak from earlier in the year, a number of...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. While gas prices are well off their peak from earlier in the year, a number of factors are in store to create a nasty surprise next year. The first is the latest production cut from OPEC+ members, which will reduce global oil production by millions of barrels per day. Adding in the current sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the United States, and the US is on track to have its lowest stockpile of oil for emergencies since 1983. And prices could move higher once those sales are over – which are expected right after next month's midterm elections. Energy prices have a huge impact on transportation and production costs throughout the economy. So as long as those prices are structurally set to stay high, expect slower growth and more volatile markets. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Market Wizard Who Accurately Predicted 2022 Market Collapse Has Shocking New Forecast He predicted the 2020 crash a month before it happened… He predicted this year's collapse back in January… And now, he's issuing a brand-new warning – along with a unique solution. Details here. MARKETS DOW 30,423.81 -0.33% S&P 3,695.16 -0.67% NASDAQ 10,680.51 -0.85% *As of market close • Stocks moved lower on Wednesday, following two days of gains. • Oil rallied 3.4 percent, closing at $85.63 per barrel. • Gold dropped 1.3 percent, last going for about $1,634 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies traded flat, with Bitcoin at $19,229 at the stock market close. Today's TOP TIPS The Big Money Is Placing Their Bets on Beaten-Down Winners Now It's no surprise that investors who follow company insiders can make above-average returns over time. Company insiders are knowledgeable about their company and its operations. But following big-name investors after they build a stake in a company can make a similar profit. That's because those who make a big buy can often earn board seats, and work on strategies to improve the business, sell off a division, or otherwise do something to result in better performance for investors. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: AZZ Inc (AZZ) Ken Lavelle, President at AZZ Inc (AZZ), recently added 2,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by nearly 9 percent, and came to a total cost just over $69,000. The buy comes a few days after the company COO picked up 3,000 shares, for just over $100,000. And the company CFO has also been a recent buyer of stock, also with a 3,000 share buy. The company CEO also bought 5,000 shares back in August, at a higher price than where shares trade today. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Suncor Energy (SU) Shares of oil and gas explorer Suncor Energy (SU) are up about 35 percent in the past year. One trader sees a short-term drop ahead for the stock. That's based on the November $25 puts. With 29 days until expiration, 4,271 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 114, for a 37-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.32 to bet on a decline in shares. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • Home Construction Slides 8.1 Percent New home construction dropped by 8.1 percent in September. Housing starts hit 1.44 million on a seasonally-adjusted basis, down from 1.56 million in August. It's also 7.7 percent lower than the rate from September 2021. The drop in home construction is a sign that rising mortgage rates are having an impact on the potential for housing demand in the months ahead. • Biden Administration Plans More SPR Sales The Biden administration is looking to sell another 15 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Designed to soothe supply chain issues after a disaster or in the event of a war, the reserve is being sold off to keep gas prices down ahead of next month's midterm elections. • Retailers Announce Thanksgiving Closures A number of big-box retailers will remain closed on Thanksgiving. Places like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Best Buy (BBY) used to kick off Black Friday deals on Thanksgiving, but closed stores starting in 2020 during the pandemic. The move still leaves the companies free to tout online deals for shoppers. • Netflix Expands Cloud Gaming Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) is expanding its offerings in the cloud gaming space. That includes the opening of a new gaming studio in California. The company views it as a value-add for the service, as the games won't replace console gaming, but will allow for increased mobile use. • BMW Plans EV Production Expansion in US BMW Group plans to invest $1.7 billion in the United States, with the goal of building out facilities for electric vehicles and batteries. That includes a $1 billion expansion for EV production at its current plant in South Carolina, and another $700 million for battery-assembly operations in the state. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP NFLX 12.136% ISRG 9.007% BKR 6.431% VLO 5.268% UAL 5.13% BOTTOM GNRC 25.298% MTB 13.694% NTRS 9.548% CMA 9.188% MRNA 7.745% Quote of the Day There is considerable precedent in past tightening cycles for the Fed to be shut down by the bond market "blinking" first. The Fed may soon attempt to raise the funds rate to 4%, 4.5%, or even 5%. But at some point, longer-term bonds may simply stop rising and refuse to follow the Fed's lead. Each time the Fed further tightens monetary policy, recession fears are elevated relative to inflation fears. Ultimately, as the Fed becomes more and more aggressive, recession becomes a bigger worry than inflation, and bond buyers begin outnumbering bond sellers—that is, the bond market blinks. - Jim Paulson, of The Leuthold Group, on why the Fed is likely close to a point where it pivots away from hiking interest rates as the bond market asserts itself over the central bank. Sponsored Content Market Wizard Who Accurately Predicted 2022 Market Collapse Has Shocking New Forecast He predicted the 2020 crash a month before it happened… He predicted this year's collapse back in January… And now, he's issuing a brand-new warning – along with a unique solution. Details here. Not sure the best way to get started? 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