| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Pres. Joe Biden unveiled a three-pronged approach to push gas prices down on Wednesday: (1) releasing the last of the 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that he authorized in March; (2) calling for an increase in oil production; and (3) chastising oil companies for not "pass[ing] savings on to consumers." | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE ELECTION — 19 days left until Election Day. … 4,496,195 early votes already cast as of 11:01 p.m. Wednesday, per the United States Elections Project . … Georgia: "Record-setting midterms early voting even exceeding presidential early voting," by Georgia Public Broadcasting's Dave Williams NON-TRANSFERABLE — John Harris' latest column: "Sorry, RON DeSANTIS, You Are No Donald Trump : No offense, KARI LAKE, but you aren't either. The former president's brand is not transferable." GAS RULES EVERYTHING AROUND ME — There's a reason White House chief of staff RON KLAIN checks AAA's survey of gas prices every single morning. For all the well-informed punditry about whether this or that issue will be the terrain upon which 2022 rises and falls, today — with 19 days left until Election Day — it seems that the most salient issue in the election for most voters could be pretty straightforward: It's the gas prices, stupid. Look closely at so many of the metrics people have suggested are determinative in the campaign — from inflation rates to President JOE BIDEN's approval number — and it becomes clear: Gas rules everything around me. As prices went down in the summer, Democrats' fortunes improved to the extent that it seemed like they could buck history and hold onto power this November. Now that they've inched back upward, polls have tilted in the GOP's favor. Cue Biden on Wednesday, as he unveiled a three-pronged approach to push gas prices down: (1) releasing the last of the 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that he authorized in March; (2) calling for an increase in oil production; and (3) chastising oil companies for not "pass[ing] savings on to consumers." The truth of the matter is that Nos. 1 and 3 are unlikely to result in prices dropping in any meaningful way — they address a political reality. And No. 2 runs headlong into a complicated economic reality. THE ECONOMIC REALITY — POLITICO oil and gas reporter Ben Lefebvre explains: The real reason oil companies aren't ramping up production as much as some would like is simple economics. The industry, after decades of burning through investors' money, is now trying to hold to its financial diet in a bid to keep them happy. Despite making record profits last financial quarter, the industry is not expected to ramp up oil production more than it already has. "Investors look at expected returns," PHILIP VERLEGER, head of economic consulting firm PKVerleger and senior fellow at the Niskanen Center, told us. "Wall Street isn't listening to the White House. For the American Petroleum Institute and others to say if the White House would just encourage oil and gas drilling, all this investor money would come forward. … I'm trying to think of another adjective instead of 'bullshit.'" But the bigger reason why companies aren't producing more is the same thing causing pain everywhere else in the United States: inflation. They have to pay more for the steel they use in their drill bits, more to rehire the workers they laid off in the depths of the pandemic, and so on. And investors won't give them more money if prices just crash again in the near future. THE POLITICAL REALITY — One thing that generally separates successful politicians from unsuccessful ones is the ability to choose enemies wisely. For months, the White House has been taking major oil and gas companies to task. Earlier this year, Biden even hosted execs at the White House, using the opportunity to chide them in person. Taking on Big Oil is almost never going to be a negative with the American people, and the White House knows it. "It's an important use of this tactic," one White House official told Playbook recently. "We don't use it when the facts don't apply, and we don't use it willy-nilly." At the same time, the White House bristles at any insinuation that the timing of Biden's Strategic Petroleum Reserve announcement is tied to the midterms — something that came up again and again in conversations we had with administration officials Wednesday. Biden tried to make the case himself, telling reporters that the move was "not politically motivated at all." And yet, no one could possibly argue that there isn't a political benefit to making such a public move just weeks before the midterms, knowing how gas prices weigh on voters' minds. "It's pretty simple," one Democratic strategist told Playbook on Wednesday night. "People want to see the president fixing shit and fixing the things that are the most important in their lives — and gas prices is one of them. You have to demonstrate that you're taking on the issues that matter." — Related read on the narrative shift: "Democrats passed a huge climate bill. Now they're talking oil." by Josh Siegel Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .
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See how Meta is helping build the metaverse. | | | MORNING READ — CHARLIE KIRK, the influential and controversial Turning Point USA founder, struggled to make friends as an outspoken conservative in a diverse Illinois high school, Kyle Spencer reports this morning in POLITICO Magazine , in an adaption from his new book, "Raising Them Right" ( $23.99 ). Kirk eventually found his people after graduation: older Republican donors. BELTWAY SPORTS BLIP — "Dan Snyder Is the NFL's Trump," writes Jack Shafer — and "the league's owners may act where Republicans didn't, and oust the brute."
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| Before 2022, Republicans supportive of abortion rights were already an endangered species. After 2022, the group could practically be extinct. "As the number of states with near-total abortion bans continues to climb four months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Democrats across the country are arguing that even Republicans who support abortion rights shouldn't be trusted in state or federal office — forcing candidates like [state Rep. TODD] STEPHENS to distance themselves from their party for their own political survival," our Alice Miranda Ollstein reports from Pennsylvania . Abortion-rights groups once supported a bipartisan roster of candidates. But "now that states have a green light to outlaw the procedure," that approach is changing — with Democratic legislative majorities seen as the last bulwark for abortion rights. "For me, visiting one little state house district in suburban Pennsylvania, where I canvassed with two opposing candidates and talked to a bunch of actual swing voters (they exist!), raised several questions about the national state of politics post-Roe," Alice told Playbook on Monday night. "Can the few remaining pro-abortion rights Republicans survive in the current environment? Are Democrats right that the only way to protect access to the procedure is to sweep them, and every other GOP lawmaker, out of office? Do those Republicans still have any influence in moderating their colleagues, as they claim? WORD OF THE DAY: "The parties are moving toward having more of a monoculture," CHRISTOPHER NICHOLAS, a Pennsylvania-based GOP consultant, told Alice. "It's hard to get on the on-ramp to elected politics as a Republican and not be pro-life and pro-gun, just like it's virtually impossible for Democrats to do the same thing. They have to be pro-choice and pro-gun control." BIG PICTURE DEMOCRACY WATCH — "Pro-Trump conspiracy theorists hound election officials out of office," a Reuters special report from Linda So, Joseph Tanfani and Jason Szep in Reno, Nev.: "Ten of Nevada's 17 counties, including Washoe, have seen their top election official resign, retire or decline to seek re-election since the 2020 vote … Four of the officials told Reuters that harassment or sustained efforts to challenge the 2020 election results were among their reasons for leaving." — "It's Hard To Run Elections These Days. Just Ask Nevada's Election Officials," by FiveThirtyEight's Kaleigh Rogers THE INVISIBLE MAN? — Biden hasn't held a midterms campaign rally since Labor Day, an unusual absence that reflects his low approval rating and his decision to go for lower-key events on the trail, NYT's Michael Shear, Katie Glueck and Lisa Lerer report . Even his events today in Pennsylvania won't be big public affairs. It's a contrast with Obama and Trump: "Obama held 16 campaign rallies in October 2010, even though his approval rating was about the same then — at 44 percent — as Mr. Biden's is now." BATTLE FOR THE SENATE BORDER SONG — Ohio Republican J.D. VANCE envisions taking on the Biden administration over border wall funding as a key priority if he makes it to Congress, Burgess Everett reports from Middletown. "Republicans, we need to have a fight over the border wall," Vance told a crowd in a preview of potential GOP majorities next year. He was less enthusiastic about forcing a showdown over Social Security. BUCKEYE BULLSEYE — Democratic Rep. TIM RYAN vents to WaPo's Annie Linskey that national Dems aren't jumping in more aggressively to bolster his Senate campaign. "We have 350,000 donors," he says, wondering why Democratic leaders and outside spenders "don't smell blood." But "Ryan's not-so subtle requests for more outside help from Democrats could threaten to undermine one key strength of his candidacy: His independence from the Democratic Party." KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE — The Pennsylvania campaign has played out in memes, residency jokes, debate debates, health questions, sports fandom, crudites and dead puppies. But there's been little public focus on substantive policy engagement from either MEHMET OZ or JOHN FETTERMAN, Philly's own Akela Lacy writes in The Intercept . "Once the shit-posting and media tours are over, of course, someone will actually be tasked with representing the state of Pennsylvania in the Senate." BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE SURPRISING LIFELINE — Democrats have long seen Arizona Rep. TOM O'HALLERAN as their most endangered incumbent after redistricting, with a paucity of national investment to match. But now the DCCC has gone up with a nearly $700,000 ad buy attacking O'Halleran's GOP challenger, ELI CRANE, Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris report . O'Halleran's internal polling shows him remaining competitive, and his allies have told national Dems that he's outworking Crane on the ground. The ad OPPO DUMP — New Mexico Democrat GABE VASQUEZ sent multiple emails as a Las Cruces city council member in 2020 indicating that he supported defunding the police and diverting some money to social programs, Fox News' Brandon Gillespie dug up . Vasquez now says he doesn't support defunding the police. BATTLE FOR THE STATES THANKS FOR STOPPING BY — Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG rallied for Democrats in Kansas City, Kan., on Wednesday. But the attendees did not include some of those very Democrats, including Gov. LAURA KELLY, The Kansas City Star's Jonathan Shorman and Katie Bernard report . Rep. SHARICE DAVIDS wasn't there either, though she was with Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH earlier in the day. GETTING UGLY — "Tony Evers seeks to link Tim Michels to alleged 'culture' of sex harassment at his company," by the Wisconsin State Journal's Chris Rickert UP FOR DEBATE — In the surprisingly close Oklahoma gubernatorial race, GOP incumbent KEVIN STITT and Democrat JOY HOFMEISTER squared off over abortion, marijuana legalization and tribal legal sovereignty. Six takeaways from The Oklahoman — The candidates in Oregon's three-way gubernatorial race met for their final televised debate on Wednesday night. Recap from The Oregonian EMPIRE STATE OF MIND — As Rep. LEE ZELDIN gives Democratic Gov. KATHY HOCHUL a run for her money, his long history of being a top Trump ally in Congress could hamper his bid, NYT's Nicholas Fandos reports . Some Republicans worry that the Trump support, which helped propel Zeldin in the primary, could torpedo a closer-than-usual race. HOT POLLS — North Carolina: Republican Rep. TED BUDD leads CHERI BEASLEY for Senate, 48% to 44%, per Trafalgar . — Pennsylvania: In the state's most expensive House race, Democratic Rep. SUSAN WILD is barely ahead of LISA SCHELLER, 47% to 46%, per Morning Call/Muhlenberg College . Scheller's unfavorables are worse, but none of the 4% of respondents who are undecided said they're leaning toward Wild. — Arizona: Trafalgar Group/Daily Wire have Republican Senate nominee BLAKE MASTERS pulling close to Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY, who leads just 47% to 46%. In the governor's race, Republican KARI LAKE leads KATIE HOBBS, 49% to 46%. — Ohio: Vance leads Rep. TIM RYAN for Senate, 46% to 42%, per Cygnal . GOP Gov. MIKE DeWINE is ahead of NAN WHALEY, 56% to 35%. … In the 1st District, Democrat GREG LANDSMAN's internal poll has him beating Rep. STEVE CHABOT, 49% to 46%. — Oregon: Democratic gubernatorial nominee TINA KOTEK's internal poll has her narrowly ahead of CHRISTINE DRAZAN, 40% to 38%, as independent BETSY JOHNSON slips to 14%. … Hoffman Research Group has Drazan ahead , 37% to 35%, with Johnson at 17%. HOT ADS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund is putting almost $1 million into a new English- and Spanish-language TV ad campaign hitting Nevada GOP Senate nominee ADAM LAXALT on guns. In a state that saw the country's deadliest mass shooting of all time, the ad calls him a "pitchman" for the gun lobby who "tried to make it easy for violent criminals to carry guns." The 30-second English spot — Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with a new ad today in Pennsylvania's toss-up 7th District that hammers Wild for her work as a defense attorney. The spot focuses on her 2005 defense of a hospital, dug up by The Washington Free Beacon , in a lawsuit brought by a boy who was raped there; Wild argued that the insurance company, not the hospital, should pay out a settlement. "Susan Wild called rape a 'medical incident,'" the ad says. "And she did it for the money." It'll air on Philly broadcast TV and digital. The 30-second ad
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | | | BIDEN'S THURSDAY:
11 a.m.: The president will leave the White House for Pittsburgh, arriving at 12:15 p.m.
2:15 p.m.: Biden will speak about infrastructure.
4:35 p.m.: Biden will leave Pittsburgh for Philadelphia, arriving at 5:40 p.m.
7 p.m.: Biden will take part in a reception for Fetterman.
8:10 p.m.: Biden will depart Philly to return to the White House, arriving at 9:15 p.m.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle on Air Force One en route to Pittsburgh.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' THURSDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.
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|  Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, holds boxing gloves given to her when she was introduced to speak at Kings Point Monaco Club House on Oct. 19, 2022 in Delray Beach, Fla. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | THE WHITE HOUSE ANOTHER SITDOWN — MSNBC's Jonathan Capehart will interview Biden at Delaware State University, airing Friday at 7 p.m. on "The ReidOut." More clips will follow on "The Sunday Show" this weekend. IMMIGRATION FILES — Many progressive interest groups landed big wins with the Biden administration in the first two years, but immigration advocates feel overlooked and frustrated on the back burner, Myah Ward reports . The White House says they should blame Republicans who are blocking congressional action. TRUMP CARDS TRUTH AND CONSEQUENCES — The federal judge in JOHN EASTMAN's Jan. 6 lawsuit wrote in an opinion Wednesday that "Trump knew that the specific numbers of voter fraud were wrong but continued to tout those numbers, both in court and to the public." Judge DAVID CARTER's indication that Trump knowingly signed a court document with election lies could have legal ramifications for the various investigations into the efforts to overturn the 2020 result and the House Jan. 6 committee, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report . Carter also ruled that at least some of Eastman's emails have to be turned over to the House panel since they're related to a likely obstruction crime. MAR-A-LAGO LATEST — Trump's lawyers are considering opening Mar-a-Lago to another supervised search by federal investigators, CNN's Sara Murray, Kristen Holmes and Gabby Orr scooped . The former president has been indicating to allies that "he is open to a less adversarial approach toward the Justice Department — one that might swiftly resolve the records issue," as CHRIS KISE has advised. Still, no decisions have been made, and Trump argues he's being treated unfairly. MONEY TALK — The Mar-a-Lago search helped Trump's fundraising skyrocket — but he also incurred way more expenses, Jessica Piper reports from the Save America Joint Fundraising Committee's and WinRed's third-quarter filings. The group raised $24 million, with a spike around the search. But it spent nearly $17 million to raise money. IN THE COURTS — Trump sat for a deposition Wednesday in E. JEAN CARROLL's defamation lawsuit against him over his denial of raping her. Few details were public afterward. More from CNN JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH SUBPOENA LATEST — The House Jan. 6 committee has struggled to subpoena Trump partially because they can't find a lawyer for him who will take it, ABC's Katherine Faulders reports . It could come as soon as today. POLITICAL VIOLENCE WATCH — 25-year-old Pennsylvania man ROBERT VARGO was arrested on charges that include threatening to kill committee Chair BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.) and Biden, per Reuters . IT'S ALWAYS THE TEXTS — The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein, Tamar Hallerman and David Wickert obtained 59 pages of texts from former Sen. KELLY LOEFFLER (R-Ga.) in her final weeks in office, leading up to her runoff and the Jan. 6 insurrection. And some of them are a doozy: TRICIA RAFFENSPERGER (wife of BRAD) reaming Loeffler for calling for his ouster after the election; Reps. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE and JODY HICE seeking Loeffler's help to contest the election; and the deliberations over whether Loeffler would object to the results. (The AJC got the texts anonymously, from an unknown source.)
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | POLICY CORNER PAGING ELIZABETH WARREN — "Appeals court finds CFPB funding unconstitutional," by Katy O'Donnell WAIT A SEC — Progressive bulldog GARY GENSLER has moved fast on Wall Street rules and regulations as Biden's SEC chair. But the pace of rulemaking is straining the agency's staff, the SEC inspector general warned in a new report, per Declan Harty . Attrition rates have hit a decade high. The report WAR IN UKRAINE 2023 DREAMING — Congressional advocates for Ukraine are thinking about pushing for a big new Ukraine aid package in December, in light of House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY's recent comments indicating that Ukraine assistance might have a tougher time in a GOP House, Andrew Desiderio and Jonathan Lemire report . The White House thinks McCarthy will blink and pony up, especially given the many Republicans who support arming Ukraine. But the "murky picture" complicates the legislative strategy. WINTER IS COMING — The U.S. and Western allies are rushing to send Ukraine new supplies ahead of what's expected to be a new, slower phase of the war through winter, Paul McLeary reports . AMERICA AND THE WORLD WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — "U.S. Raises Concerns After Saudis Sentence American to 16 Years in Prison Over Tweets," Bloomberg THE ECONOMY A 20-YEAR HIGH — U.S. mortgage rates hit 6.94% last week, the highest they've reached since 2002, per new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. More from Bloomberg RECESSION WATCH — The Fed's Beige Book report out Wednesday said the U.S. economy is growing "modestly" this month, a sign of some cooling as the central bank cranks up interest rates, Bloomberg's Steve Matthews reports . THE PANDEMIC GETTING A BOOST — The FDA signed off on Novavax's coronavirus vaccine booster shot Wednesday. More from Stat "Whites now more likely to die from covid than Blacks: Why the pandemic shifted," WaPo BEYOND THE BELTWAY AT THE BORDER — It's Gov. DOUG DUCEY vs. Biden: Arizona is refusing to comply with the federal Bureau of Reclamation's demand that it remove shipping containers the state has erected as a makeshift border wall, AP's Anita Snow reports from Phoenix. MEDIAWATCH FOX IN THE HENHOUSE — "Suzanne Scott's Vision for Fox News Gets Tested in Court," by NYT's Jeremy Peters and Rachel Abrams Fox's statement: "We are extremely proud of Suzanne rising through the ranks to become one of the most successful C.E.O.s in the media industry and her track record of incredible results speaks for itself."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Mike Pence on a Donald Trump 2024 run: "There might be somebody else I'd prefer more." OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a signing for Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse's (D-R.I.) new book, "The Scheme: How the Right Wing Used Dark Money to Capture the Supreme Court" ( $26.03 ), at Joan Claybrook's home: Mary Landrieu, Tommy Quinn, Lyndon Boozer, Al Mottur, Nancy Chasen, Robert Glennon, Bob Van Heuvelen, Heather Podesta, Tiernan Sittenfeld, Leslie Cockburn and Monalisa Dugué. — SPOTTED at the US-Ireland Partnership for Growth launch at Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason's residence Tuesday night: Ben English, Dawne Hickton, Amanda Slater, Terri McCullough, Katherine Monge, Lizzy O'Hara, Allison Jarus-McGlynn, Casey O'Shea, James Leuschen, Kevin Richards and Molly Carey. STAFFING UP — Beth Lynk is now assistant HUD secretary for public affairs. She most recently was senior adviser for comms and external affairs at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. … Tommy Walker is now deputy associate SBA administrator for congressional and legislative affairs. He previously was a policy director for the Senate Rules Dems. TRANSITIONS — Michael Jung is now executive director of the ICF Climate Center. He most recently was VP for government affairs at the Pacific Northwest Generating Cooperative. … Emma Doyle is now managing director at Bondi Partners. She most recently was a managing director at Actum and is a Trump White House alum. … Laura Chadwick has been appointed president and CEO of the Travel Technology Association. She previously was VP for industry relations at the XRAssociation. … … Grayling has added Bob Conrad as EVP and Alla Shkiler as SVP. Conrad most recently was senior media and content director at Syneos Health. Shkiler most recently was VP at Ketchum. … R. Jordan Richardson is now an associate at Heise Suarez Melville. He most recently did a federal clerkship in Florida, and is a Trump White House and Labor Department alum. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Ryan Caldwell, SVP at J.A. Green & Co., and Kristen Clardy, statistics and algebra teacher at Rockville High School, welcomed John "Jack" Lewis Caldwell on Monday at MedStar Washington Hospital Center. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: VP Kamala Harris … Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) (5-0) … Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) … Greg Lowman of Fidelity … John Grandy … WaPo's Ann Gerhart … Nardelli Group's Mick Nardelli … AARP's Khelan Bhatia … Anneke Green … Commerce Department's Roddy Flynn … Caroline Modarressy-Tehrani … Eliza Relman … Hanna Pritchett of the American Conservation Coalition … Lamia Rezgui … Matt Dogali of the American Distilled Spirits Association … Pablo Manriquez … Henry Kaufman … POLITICO's Chris Tassa … E&E News' Jean Chemnick … Arthel Neville (6-0) ... Katherine DePalma … Chuck McCutcheon … former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis … Kay Foley … former DNI John Ratcliffe … Tom Kahn of American University … NYT's Matt Apuzzo … Ali Isse of Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) office … Marty Irom … Fender Guitars' Aarash Darroodi … Ramon Correa of Rep. Sylvia Garcia's (D-Texas) office … Christie Boyden Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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