Monday, October 31, 2022

Who's on the road: Obama and GOP hopefuls

A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
Oct 31, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Huddle

By Katherine Tully-McManus

With a hand from Marianne in Wisconsin

SENATE TEA LEAVES LEAD TO WHITE HOUSE — The fight to win control of the Senate is entering a desperate final stretch, but a key handful of Republicans are looking ahead to 2024 -- and hedging their bets while former President Donald Trump weighs another White House bid.

Most will say that their eyes are squarely trained on the fight at hand for control of Congress. But, as Burgess writes this morning , the final stretch of the midterm election season essentially serves as a starting gun for 2024. And who's hitting the road to reclaim a GOP majority is telling.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) embarked on a nationwide tour to back Republican candidates, leaving him with just five nights at home this month. He told Burgess he missed his daughter's birthday but that it is worth it to secure a Senate majority.

"We've got to win the White House in '24. And I think that is absolutely critical. But the first step is taking Congress back," Cruz said in a phone interview from a stop in Tennessee. "Everybody who can help us win in 2022 should be doing everything humanly possible to make it happen."

The midterm stage is crowded with these GOP team players who are raising money and stumping for their colleagues, while also raising their own national profiles and boatloads of money. A primo double dip for anyone with presidential ambitions.

Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), GOP campaign chief Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and even Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) are hitting the road. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who is up this cycle, has also been putting in time to travel across the country for town halls, roundtables and candidate events … for candidates other than himself.

Burgess digs into the 2024 tea leaves (aka these ambitious senators' travel schedules and spending habits) in the context of Trump's decision making.

RELATED: Battle for the Senate comes down to final desperate scramble , from Holly Otterbein and Jessica Piper; New Hampshire isn't feeling the 2024 love , from Lisa Kachinsky in Derry, N.H.

 

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GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, October 31, where a demon cat is still said to roam the halls. (But stopped carrying its weight as a mouser long ago.)

HUDDLE (LAST)WEEKLY MOST CLICKED: Tucker Carlson lashes out at GOP campaign chief in irate private call , a scoop from Jonathan Swan at Axios

POLITICAL VIOLENCE Members of Congress are still reeling from Friday's attack on Paul Pelosi, which highlighted how vulnerable members and their families are. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has a security detail, of course. But it does not extend to even close family members and rank and file lawmakers have no official protection when at home or traveling. The Capitol Police are conducting a review of security for top members and senators and have reminded lawmakers about services available like event security planning and certain home security upgrades that are available to lawmakers.

Charges pending: The alleged assailant, David DePape, is expected to be arraigned on Tuesday. He will face charges of "attempted murder, residential burglary, elder abuse and assault, with an enhancement for a 'hot prowl' allegation, which involves entering a home while someone is present," according to the San Francisco Chronicle .

Pelosi as a target: "For the better part of two decades, Republicans have targeted Ms. Pelosi, the most powerful woman in American politics, as the most sinister Democratic villain of all, making her the evil star of their advertisements and fund-raising appeals in hopes of animating their core supporters," write Annie Karni, Catie Edmondson and Carl Hulse at The New York Times. More on her status as one of the most-threatened members of Congress .

Rooted in conspiracies: Pelosi attacker was immersed in 2020 election conspiracies , from Jeremy White; Accused Pelosi attacker David DePape spread QAnon, other far-right, bigoted conspiracies , from Summer Lin, Salvador Hernandez and Terry Castleman at The Los Angeles Times

And misinformation follows: Elon Musk, right-wing figures push misinformation about Pelosi attack , from Isaac Stanley-Becker at The Washington Post

GOP TAKING IT TO THE LIMIT? — Republican candidates say the darndest things. And a slate of fraught GOP nominees for the House are testing where voters will draw the line (or what they're willing to swallow). For all the talk of "quality candidates" in the race for the Senate, Ally Mutnick dives into GOP House candidates, the wild things they're saying, and how those positions could shape a GOP majority. From Grand Rapids, Ally zeroes in on John Gibbs in Michigan's 3rd district: "Few GOP candidates have compiled as massive an online record as Gibbs — which Democratic opponent Hillary Scholten and her allies have used to her advantage. … National Republicans are still airing TV ads for Gibbs, hoping that voters overlook his controversial comments amid their discontent about the economy."

RONJON LOOKING FOR A THREEPEAT Can Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) clinch a third term in the Senate? Democrats are putting both star power and cash behind a final push to try and knock off the Trump acolyte and boost Democratic challenger former Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes.

Former President Barack Obama made a stop in Milwaukee this weekend to support Barnes, delivering scathing criticisms of Johnson and energizing a crowd. He's still the biggest star in Democratic party and Dems hope that his visit could help turn out Black voters in Milwaukee. Barnes will need the boost if he is to be the state's first Black senator.

The Wisconsin seat is a top target for Democrats, who see Johnson's conspiracy theory acceptance, Trump loyalty and threats of cutting Social Security as an opening in a state that has elected dealmaking progressive Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) to its other Senate spot. Barnes raked in cash in the third quarter and was on track to nearly double spending on television ads in October over September. But cash is no guarantee in this contest.

When asked what it would say about his state if Johnson wins, Barnes said: "It'll show just how close our races are and how it's important to invest continually in Wisconsin." No one can say the race hasn't been pricey. Democrats began airing more than $6 million in ads against Johnson in the year leading up to his reelection bid announcement, according to Ad Impact, in addition to the $54.5 million they've spent on the general election to Republicans' $60.8 million. In the final weeks of the race, Democrats are expected to outspend Republicans, after getting pummeled by attack ads in September.

But Johnson isn't just a Trump follower: In 2016, Johnson actually outperformed Trump in Wisconsin. Marianne crisscrossed Wisconsin to deliver this dispatch from the race .

RELATED: Democrats turn to Obama to rescue them from a midterm shellacking , from Christopher Cadelego, How Radio Powers Ron Johnson, a Many-Time Caller to His Longtime Listeners , from Reid J. Epstein at The New York Times

BALDWIN ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE BILL Speaking of Baldwin, the Wisconsin senator gave POLITICO an update on where things stand with the same-sex marriage bill in the Senate, telling Marianne that she remains optimistic but that her "only worry now is time." Baldwin said she's spoken twice to Senate leadership about it, "but the process can't take a week and a half or two weeks, so we either get a time agreement or we figure out new strategies." Baldwin has been pushing for a vote right after the election, but nothing has been scheduled.

MCCARTHY PLOTS SPEAKERSHIP Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) tells Ben Jacobs for New York Magazine that he's "better prepared" now to take the speaker's gavel than he was in previously aborted bids for the top job in the House. He cites support from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), whose early career in Congress was marked by tearing down speakers from his own party.

Jacobs notes: "House Republicans have shown a fondness for regicide that would even make the Praetorian Guard blush. Three of the four Republican Speakers in the past half-century were forced out; either resigning after finding the job of managing their conference too impossible or having the conference oust them, as happened to [Newt] Gingrich." And McCarthy is well aware. "Republicans are very good at taking out their Republican Speakers," he acknowledged.

"I don't get to hire who works with me, and I don't get to fire who works with me and I just have to inspire," McCarthy told New York Magazine. "So my job is to find what inspires, find the people, put them in the right seats, and let them excel."

CHURCH AND STATE — Don't put your faith in IRS investigations keeping churches above board. A deep dive collaboration from The Texas Tribune and Pro Publica reveals that anxiety that religious institutions used to feel over losing their tax-exempt status for getting too political has largely evaporated.

"The IRS has largely abdicated its enforcement responsibilities as churches have become more brazen. In fact, the number of apparent violations found by ProPublica and the Tribune, and confirmed by three nonprofit tax law experts, are greater than the total number of churches the federal agency has investigated for intervening in political campaigns over the past decade, according to records obtained by the news organizations." More from the investigation .

HONEY ALEXANDER HAS DIED — Leslee "Honey" Buhler Alexander, the wife of former Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), has died at age 77. Tyler Whetstone of the Knoxville News Sentinel writes that Honey "was long the backbone and political will behind Tennessee's most accomplished son."

Senate and Softball: Honey first caught Alexander's attention by sliding into first base while playing co-ed softball in Washington. She played for Sen. John G. Tower, Republican from Texas' team and Alexander played for Sen. Howard Baker's team. Alexander wrote about his first impressions in his gubernatorial memoir, "Steps Along the Way."

"After seeing Honey for the first time, I began to play softball the way a peacock struts through the farmyard," he wrote.

 

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HUDDLE HOTDISH

Sen. Ron Wyden visits The Sports Bra… A new-ish bar in Portland focused on women's sports. Wyden (D-Ore.) stopped by to watch the Portland Thorns clinch the National Women's Soccer League championship. Your Huddle host will admit to reading the tweet multiple times before realizing it was not a typo.

QUICK LINKS 

US Republican warns opposition to British proposals on Troubles legacy will continue if it wins election , from The Irish Times

Laxalt campaign paid thousands to political operative linked to Twitter account that denigrated Jews, women , from Matthew Kassel at Jewish Insider

U.S. Sen. Blumenthal is everywhere in Connecticut; GOP's Leora Levy says she is, too , from Christopher Keating at The Hartford Courant

TRANSITIONS 

Alexandra Teitz will serve as chief counsel for the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works and Jake Abbott will take over as communications director for the panel. Teitz was most recently a principal at AT Strategies, LLC and was previously chief counsel on House Energy and Commerce under Rep. Henry Waxman. Abbott was most recently deputy communications director for EPW.

Bridget Kelleher is now legislative director for Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.). She most recently was senior policy adviser for Cortez Masto.

Mariah Klawon is now deputy scheduler for Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.). She most recently was finance specialist at the Diocese of Cheyenne.

Natalie Morgan is now press secretary for Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). She previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House convenes at 11 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session.

AROUND THE HILL

A quiet one.

TRIVIA

FRIDAY'S WINNER: Joseph T. Cartwright correctly answered that the states without spending limits for statewide candidates are: Virginia, Utah, Texas, Oregon, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Nebraska, Mississippi, Iowa, Indiana and Alabama.

TODAY'S QUESTION: This president put a table and chair on the South Rim of the Grand Canyon for a picturesque proclamation signing.

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus

 

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