BOLSONARO OUT IN BRAZIL Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will begin a third term Jan. 1 as president of Brazil, if the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro doesn't attempt a coup in the meantime — as he has threatened. That comes after Lula defeated Bolsonaro 51 percent to 49 percent in a presidential run-off vote Sunday, despite losing heavily in both Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the two largest cities. The result was closer than polls predicted, a similar situation to the first round of voting a month ago. U.S. President Joe Biden made sure to refer to Brazil's "free, fair, and credible elections" in congratulating Lula on his win. The result will provide a boost to climate negotiators and activists descending on Egypt this week for the COP27 climate talks. Lula tweeted Sunday night that he would "fight for zero deforestation" in the Amazon. The result may also allow a planned EU — Mercosur trade bloc to be ratified : The draft deal was held by France over Brazil's climate practices. TRADE WAR RISK U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is in Prague today, meeting European trade ministers — who are up in arms about the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act on Europe's auto industry. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set the tense meeting tone last week when they agreed over lunch in Paris that they would push the EU to resort to retaliatory subsidies and protectionist measures if the U.S. doesn't backtrack on its own Buy American protectionist plans — for example around electric vehicle supply chains — in the Inflation Reduction Act. They've since won support from free trade-oriented governments including Sweden . But that doesn't mean the EU is ready to implement its own protectionist measures yet. The European Commission's trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis told Brussels Playbook that his focus is "dialogue" for now. RUSSIA'S HUNGER GAMES Another international agreement breached: Russia abandoned an agreement aimed at bringing down global food prices — by allowing Ukraine to export grain by sea — over the weekend. Russia had maintained a naval blockade prior to the agreement, driving up food prices in poor countries that depended on Ukrainian wheat and other food commodities. "Russia has no intention of honoring any international agreements," the Polish Foreign Ministry said Sunday. The State Department accused Russia of " weaponizing food ." Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy weighed in: "Russia is doing everything to ensure that millions of Africans, millions of residents of the Middle East and South Asia, find themselves in conditions of artificial famine or at least a severe price crisis." Russia claims that Ukrainian attacks on its Black Sea fleet prevent it from ensuring security of the shipping lanes. Britain's Paul Knott aka The Accidental Diplomat summarizes Putin's logic as "I launched an illegal war on Ukraine and it fought back, so I'm going to starve Africa as a punishment ." What's really going on? Ukraine now has an upper-hand in precision-guided rockets, artillery and drones, and is being punished after a successful strike on Russia's Black Sea fleet. Russia is now consistently targeting civilian infrastructure . CLIMATE CORNER BRITISH COP OUT COP26 President Alok Sharma, until recently a member of the British Cabinet, attacked Prime Minister Rishi Sunak over the weekend for snubbing the upcoming COP27 summit in Egypt. The decision is notable because Sunak confirmed he's asked King Charles to stay away and because Sunak himself led discussions on climate finance — the summit's trickiest topic — last year in Glasgow at COP26. Analysis: This isn't going to win the Conservatives any votes at home and it is angering international partners . Having shredded their credibility on economic management and stable governance, the green credentials of Conservatives were among the party's last electoral safety nets. Now they are subjecting the Commonwealth to new pressure (many member countries are either climate vulnerable or looking to ditch King Charles, and in some cases it's both). Sunak now risks creating a similar predicament to the one the conservative Australian government put itself in: losing power by not taking climate action seriously enough. CANADA AND GERMANY PUBLISH CLIMATE FINANCE PLAN: The plan , published Friday, sets out that rich governments not only failed to meet their commitment to deliver $100 billion in grants to the countries most severely affected by climate change, but says that there still isn't a plan to get there, despite additional funding from countries including Italy, Japan, Netherlands and Norway. The most important sentence: The show must move on because $100 billion isn't enough to fix the problem. "It is abundantly clear that the global investments needed to respond to the climate change threat are much larger than $100 billion and that we need to turn our attention to setting an effective, and fit for purpose, post-2025 climate finance goal," the report says. What's next? Finding money elsewhere. The plan boils down to moving past governments and onto regional and global development banks, and private banks, for finance. An example is the Energy Transition Mechanism of the Asian Development Bank which works to decommission Indonesian and Filipino coal plants. MIDDLE EAST CORNER ISRAEL — ELECTION TUESDAY: In final polls before the vote the bloc headed by former prime minister and Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu bloc is averaging 60 seats in polls, hovering around the magic 61-seat threshold needed to form a government, write Joshua Hantman and Simon Davies for Times of Israel. A critical factor: If any of the anti-Netanyahu parties falls below the 3.25 percent vote share threshold needed to win a seat in the Knesset, that would likely hand Netanyahu victory. LEBANON — POWER VACUUM: Right across the border from Israel, Lebanon's President Michel Aoun ended his six-year term on Sunday without a replacement, after Parliament failed four times to achieve a two-thirds majority needed to make an appointment. The parliament has also been unable to agree on a government to support. Lebanon has been in the hands of a caretaker government since May, but even that is now in doubt. In his final speech Aoun said he had accepted the resignation of the caretaker government — hinting at a near total power vacuum — but the head of that caretaker administration Najib Mikati said his administration planned to continue to govern, AP reported . Amid such constitutional chaos it's unlikely the International Monetary Fund will finalize a $3 billion assistance package the caretaker government is seeking. IRAN — REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CRACKS DOWN: Sunday saw violent confrontations across Iranian university campuses, after Hossein Salami, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps ( a designated terror group ), told protesters Saturday " today is the last day of riots ." There is no sign the protests — sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after her arrest by morality police — are abating. SAUDI ARABIA — TWITTER'S OTHER OWNER: While Elon Musk's Twitter takeover will see the company delist from the New York Stock Exchange, the Saudi government will continue to hold its stake, making them the biggest Twitter investor after Musk . ONLINE VIOLENCE: The U.N. Secretary-General has received a report he is now due to convey the U.N. General Assembly every two years on the global state of violence against women and girls. The report is grim reading. The year's report focuses on violence fostered online, including harassment through online channels, and online threats that lead to physical violence. Co-author Somali Cerise says the problem is "pervasive and by nature transcends geographical boundaries." She found that 85 percent of women who are online have witnessed digital violence against other women, and that 73 percent of female journalists reported experiencing online violence. "Online violence and abuse have a 'chilling effect,' impacting women's participation in public life through humiliation, shame, fear, and silencing," Cerise said.
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