Sunday, October 2, 2022

Candidate for a NEW Smart Money

Candidate for a NEW Smart Money

Corona Del Mar, CA

 

Howdy !

 

Markets change with the introduction of new products.

 

For example, in the early 80's, the characteristics of stocks changed with the introduction of S&P 500 futures -- they stopped trending so nicely.

 

Then the micro-structure of the markets changed with the introduction of electronic E-mini S&P 500 futures (which allowed some interesting HFT hedging).

 

So you bet your bottom dollar that when Micro S&P 500 futures came out in 2019, I was going to keep an eye on 'em.

 

The CFTC didn't start tracking them in their COT report until 2020.

 

And even then, their tracking was sporadic until the end of 2021.

 

What I pay attention to is the net contracts long or short...

 

The blue line below.

 

Notice how over the past couple weeks they quickly sold their positions:

Micro E-minis give you 1/10th the buying power of a regular E-mini.

 

That means it's likely to be traded by dumb money (same as the E-mini)...and you trade AGAINST the dumb money if you want to make money over the long-haul.

 

When I backtested the original Smart Money in 2006, I had 20 years of history to work with.

 

In this case, given the three years of history, I can only give you anecdotal evidence.

 

It does appear to be a decent indicator...and as of this week it went to a "buy" signal.

 

And that of course matches my Smart Money strategy.

 

I recently read that 70% of economists were bearish on the stock market.

 

If everyone is bearish, who's left to sell?

 

Reminds me of that IMF report that proved economists failed to predict 98.6% of global recessions.

 

With a track record like that, we should just do the opposite right?

 

Trade smart,

 

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portfolio Boss, Inc.

260 Newport Center Dr, Suite 100 Newport Beach, CA 92660

 

About us: Created by our founder, Dan Murphy, Portfolio Boss 1.0 was released in 2014 as an alternative to mainstream back testing software. Although it was slow and clunky at first, it quickly grew because it offered scientific testing on large baskets of stocks and ETFs, including a ranking engine, and used a simple drag and drop strategy builder. No programming required. Also helping matters was the release of the popular report, The Relaxed Investor, with over 500,000 downloads and counting. Inside its pages laid the foundation for rotational investing, proven since 1926. Portfolio Boss quickly morphed into a multi-strategy trading machine with completely new concepts such as strategy stacking, spigoting, and meta-strategic trading. After years of development, Portfolio Boss morphed once again into the first automated A.I strategy builder with massive parallel cloud computing available to the public. With over 3,500 computer cores, "The Boss" was born. Not only can it invent trading strategies using human-made indicators, it also programs itself using C code. Currently, The Boss has been running for over 1900 years of compute time. Starting in 2022, The Boss was updated to include uncommon data such as fund flows and True Asset Pricing to improve strategies by a factor of 18x to 36x over indexing. What's next? Intraday trading and automation for starters. Our goal is to provide hedge fund level tools for everyday kitchen counter traders.

 

Don't want to stay in the loop with Dan? We'll be sad to see you go, but you can unsub to no longer receive emails.

 

Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.

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