Greetings all! I'm Robin Shepherd and I'm delighted to return as guest host of China Watcher before Phelim Kine comes back next week from a well-earned vacation. I'm vice president of HFX, the non-partisan public policy organization based in Washington, D.C. that runs the Halifax International Security Forum , the world's pre-eminent annual security conference dedicated to strengthening strategic cooperation among democracies. I also authored "China Vs. Democracy: The Greatest Game," a free handbook on the threat China poses to freedom in the world today. In this week's China Watcher, we'll assess whether the U.S. can hold together an enduring global coalition to meet the China challenge after NATO unveiled its new Strategic Concept warning of the "deepening strategic partnership" between Beijing and Moscow. We also look back at President Xi Jinping's carefully choreographed visit to Hong Kong a week ago and our book this week introduces you to the "exciting but depressing" world of Chinese fiction. Let's get this show on the road! — Robin Congratulations to President XI JINPING. It's official. China made it into NATO's first revamped Strategic Concept in over a decade, formally adopted at last week's Madrid summit. NATO pointed to the "systemic challenges" that the People's Republic of China poses while also holding out an olive branch for "constructive engagement." Yet the language was tough, referring to Beijing's "coercive policies" that challenge NATO's "interests, security and values" as well as the PRC's "malicious hybrid and cyber operations." In the bigger strategic picture, however, it is NATO's depiction of Beijing and Moscow's ever closer partnership that raises the largest concerns. NATO is not yet referring to a China-Russia "bloc" in its Strategic Concept, but it is clearly alerting the world's democracies to the scale of the challenge they now face. Enter the word "capacity." Do the U.S. and its allies — especially in Europe — really have the resources and the willpower to hold the line if they are taking on Russia and China at once? The West is now locked in a confrontation over Ukraine that, absent regime change in Moscow, is likely to continue for year after dreary year without a clean and decisive conclusion. NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said last week that NATO was in it with Ukraine for "as long as it takes." Bravo! But Stoltenberg — effective, intelligent, articulate, and resolute — remains a diplomat. If the will from political leaders in NATO starts to fragment and crumble beneath him as economic recession bites and Ukraine gets lost over the years in the mists of the various political conversations in the 30 allied countries, it is questionable whether the alliance will be able to do more than prevent spillover from the Ukraine conflict into wider Europe. That still counts for an awful lot, but it doesn't count for as much as simultaneously rebuffing the strategic challenges posed by China. NATO firmly rejects the suggestion that China and Russia together are too much to handle. Spokesperson OANA LUNGESCU told China Watcher: "Both authoritarian regimes are pushing back against the international rules-based order, so we are strengthening NATO in an era of strategic competition and deepening our partnerships with like-minded nations around the world, including our Indo-Pacific partners.… NATO does not have the luxury of choosing our challenges, we must face them all." Whether, amid the crisis in Ukraine, most European allies truly see things as NATO HQ does is open to debate. But some of the most important allies do at least see a clear linkage between Ukraine and Taiwan, raising hopes that VLADIMIR PUTIN's war of aggression does not necessarily presage a narrowing of their focus into a literal and figurative "fortress Europe." "We need to learn the lessons of Ukraine, which was that we could have ensured that Ukraine had the defensive capability earlier," Britain's Foreign Secretary LIZ TRUSS said last week. "And that would have done more to deter … Putin from invading, so-called deterrence by denial, and that is a similar approach to the approach we need to take for other sovereign nations, including Taiwan." I warned in a December edition of China Watcher of a "perfect geo-political storm" on both sides of the Eurasian landmass in which Russia forges into Ukraine while China does something similar in Taiwan. Allies that are skeptical we can afford to meet the China and Russia challenges simultaneously only need to consider the consequences — to their own economies if nothing else — of a war over Taiwan taking place alongside the war in Ukraine. If the argument of global good citizenship or saving democracies doesn't fly, perhaps rational self-interest will. Beijing responded to Truss's remarks in typically indignant fashion, lodging an official complaint with Britain for her "arrogance." But the PRC seems even more outraged than usual since its inclusion in NATO's Strategic Concept. It looks rattled, offering a perversely hopeful sign, perhaps, that China's loudly and publicly vocalized remonstrations are themselves evidence that the U.S. and its allies are not, after all, likely to take their eye off the ball in Asia due to the crisis in Eastern Europe. NATO's warming relations in the Indo-Pacific have certainly got Beijing's attention. As proceedings in Madrid began on June 28, for instance, China's Global Times colorfully railed, with nary a metaphor left unmixed, against the participation at a NATO summit for the first time of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, saying: "Catering to NATO's Asia-Pacificization is tantamount to inviting wolves into the house.… The sewage of the Cold War cannot be allowed to flow into the Pacific Ocean." After the summit, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson ZHAO LIJIAN on Friday singled out Tokyo in particular for attempting to "spearhead NATO's foray into the Asia-Pacific," something that would "only stoke bloc confrontation and create antagonism and division in the region." But it is the way in which the fate of Taiwan and the fate of Ukraine are so closely intertwined that is now at the heart of the matter. Taiwan's leaders have had 20/20 vision on this from the start of Putin's Feb. 24 invasion, less than a week after which President TSAI ING-WEN, her vice president, WILLIAM LAI, and Premier SU TSENG-CHANG all agreed to make the symbolically important move of donating a month's salary for humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The Taiwanese people are also acutely aware of the parallels with Ukraine, and some have even joined the ranks of foreign fighters risking their lives to repel the Russian invasion. Taipei, of course, was delighted at NATO's new Strategic Concept: "We welcome NATO's global perspective," Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson JOANNE OU told your host on Tuesday. "Taiwan will continue to closely work with democratic partners around the world in response to the hybrid threat posed by authoritarian regimes." The latest assessment of the actual threat to Taiwan of a Chinese attack came on Sunday when Gen. MARK MILLEY, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the BBC that "whether they would or not, it's a political choice, it's a policy choice, that will be based off of how the Chinese view the cost risk benefit at the time. … There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent at this time." Looking at events in Ukraine, that is hardly surprising. Putin's invasion is a mess. Beijing would probably view a war in the Taiwan Strait in which it failed to take Taipei and only managed to take slices of the Taiwan islands as a massive public humiliation. Add to that the prospect of a sanctions and isolation campaign to rival the one against Moscow, and, right now at least, Beijing has every good reason to hold back. From wherever America's allies around the world draw strength and inspiration to pull closer together against Beijing's aggressive posture, staying that messy course in Ukraine remains the best strategy to avoid a dramatic escalation in the assault on the global order. By highlighting the need to deal with China and Russia's growing partnership, NATO has got it right in its new Strategic Concept. That offers no immediate relief for the people of Ukraine, but it's probably the best news anyone can offer at this time to the people of Taiwan. Now, back to your regular programming … TRANSLATING WASHINGTON — CHINA TARIFFS LIFT: President JOE BIDEN is preparing to alter a narrow set of former President DONALD TRUMP's tariffs on China, with a decision expected this month, our own GAVIN BADE reported Tuesday. However, no final decision has been made on timing. The plan is likely to involve three parts: A narrow set of tariffs will be lifted, likely duties on consumer goods, such as bicycles. The U.S. Trade Representative will also open a new exclusion process for companies to win exemptions from China tariffs. The third part will involve a new tariff investigation under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act that will target sectors that are heavily subsidized by the Chinese Communist Party. — YELLEN-LIU TALKS: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN held a virtual meeting Monday with Chinese Vice Premier LIU HE, according to releases from Washington and Beijing. Both sides described the conversation, the first since October, as "candid" over macroeconomic and supply chain issues. China's statement raised "the lifting of additional tariffs on China and sanctions by the U.S side, and fair treatment of Chinese enterprises." The U.S. readout mentioned "the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine on the global economy and unfair, non-market PRC economic practices." — FBI-MI5 JOINT WARNING: The heads of U.S. and U.K. security services warned of threats from China in an unprecedented joint appearance on Wednesday in London, the BBC reported . "China has for far too long counted on being everybody's second-highest priority," FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY said, adding: "They are not flying under the radar anymore." MI5 head KEN McCALLUM was reported as calling the challenge posed by the CCP "game-changing." — STATE AND LOCAL LOBBYING: The U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Center issued a notice Wednesday warning state and local officials and business leaders of China's influence operation. The center said Beijing has stepped up its efforts to cultivate U.S. state and local leaders in a strategy some have described as "using the local to surround the central." — TAIWAN SEES U.S. TRADE DEAL VITAL TO DEMOCRACY: A top Taiwanese official said last week that the biggest benefit from a proposed trade agreement with the United States would be to prop up Taiwan's economy and democracy in the face of China's attempts to isolate the country. "If our economy can not be strong enough, then there's only one place that we can go — China," JOHN DENG, Taiwan's minister without portfolio, said in an interview with POLITICO's DOUG PALMER. "More reliance on their market. More dependent."
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