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| Presented By Babbel |
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| Axios World |
| By Dave Lawler · Jul 07, 2022 |
| Welcome back to Axios World. - I'm back in D.C. after a refreshing week off with family… with a whole lot of news to catch up on.
- I'll bet you can guess where we're starting tonight's edition (1,880 words, 7 minutes).
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| 1 big thing: How it all fell apart for Boris Johnson |
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| Boris Johnson gives a press conference on Covid last year. Photo: Adrian Dennis-WPA Pool/Getty Images |
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| The U.K.'s next prime minister is likely polishing their campaign pitch this evening after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced — belatedly, when all other options had evaporated — that he would be stepping down. Driving the news: Two candidates to replace Johnson as Conservative Party leader and thus prime minister have already thrown their hats into the ring, with many more expected to follow. The man who led the campaign to take Britain out of the EU and appeared electorally untouchable after a landslide victory in 2019 will soon be yesterday's news. - Half of Johnson's government, some 59 ministers, had resigned by the time he approached a podium outside Downing Street to announce his exit (something he insisted through Wednesday evening he would not be doing).
- "The herd instinct is powerful, and when the herd moves, it moves," Johnson said, maintaining his wry tone even as he described his ouster as "painful" and "eccentric."
- Johnson added that no politician is indispensable and "our brilliant and Darwinian system will produce another leader."
How it happened: The last straw came when Johnson's deputy chief whip, Chris Pincher, resigned after being accused of groping two men. It emerged that Johnson was aware of previous sexual misconduct allegations against Pincher before appointing him. - That followed months of drip-drip revelations that Downing Street had hosted boozy parties while the U.K. was in a strict COVID lockdown. "Partygate" stuck to Johnson in a way no previous scandal had (and there were many).
- He compounded the frustrations of his lieutenants by forcing them to defend positions — "there were no parties in Downing Street," "he wasn't aware of the concerns about Pincher" — that turned out to be fiction.
- A cost-of-living crisis and a controversial tax hike didn't help matters.
Perhaps most damaging of all was his transition from electoral magician to liability. - The Conservatives trail Labour in the polls and have suffered a string of embarrassing defeats in recent special elections.
- Johnson blamed the parliamentary "herd," but the public turned on him long before his Cabinet did.
What's next: Johnson has cobbled together a new Cabinet of MPs still willing to serve under him, and he intends to stay in office for up to three months as the party leadership contest plays out. - He said in Thursday's address that the timetable will be released next week, and he assured the Cabinet that he won't take major policy steps in the interim.
- Tory heavyweights including former Prime Minister John Major have urged him to step aside now in favor of his deputy to end the political circus. Labour leader Keir Starmer is threatening a no-confidence vote if he doesn't.
Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Tom Tugendhat and Attorney General Suella Braverman have launched their campaigns to succeed Johnson. - The potential favorites include recently departed Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who together launched the resignation wave by stepping down on Tuesday evening, as well as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.
- The bookmakers' favorites also include Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, whose stock has risen during the war in Ukraine, and Penny Mordaunt, who as a relatively moderate Brexiteer could conceivably help unite the sparring wings of the party.
What to watch: If Johnson's political career up to now is any guide, the coming transition period may be an eventful one. |
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| 2. Rotating door on Downing Street |
 Data: Axios research; Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios Johnson's successor will be the fourth Conservative prime minister in the past six years, continuing a trend of leaders ousted not at the ballot box but by party infighting. Flashback: David Cameron resigned after losing the Brexit referendum in 2016 (with Johnson leading the opposing camp), while Theresa May stepped aside in 2019 after her Brexit deal was repeatedly voted down (with Johnson quitting her government in order to oppose it). - Johnson then called an election in December 2019 and won a landslide on his platform of "Get Brexit Done." The U.K. officially left the EU the following month.
What's next: Johnson will pass a big parliamentary majority on to his successor, along with many of the challenges associated with Britain's exit from the EU, including a fairly grim near-term economic outlook. - Labour currently leads the Conservatives in the polls, but the next election could come as late as January 2025.
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| 3. State of the war: Russia's next target |
 Data: Institute for the Study of War; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios Russia appears to be preparing for the next phase of its offensive in Ukraine's eastern borderlands as it completes the capture of Luhansk, one of two administrative regions of the broader Donbas region. State of play: Roughly half of the other region, Donetsk, remains in Ukrainian hands. That's where the focus will now shift after Moscow's costly but effective offensive in Luhansk. - Russia has been shelling Ukrainian positions in Donetsk but has not announced any territorial gains in the four days since claiming control of Lysychansk, the last significant city in Luhansk that had remained in Ukrainian hands.
- That could signal an operational pause as Russia's depleted forces prepare for the next phase.
- Both sides have taken heavy losses in the Donbas, but Russia has had the advantage in manpower and, in particular, in artillery. Military analysts expect that balance to shift over time as Kyiv trains additional forces and integrates NATO-caliber weaponry.
Zoom in: Ukraine elected to abandon the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk rather than wage the sort of prolonged defense seen in Mariupol — apparently seeking to delay and degrade Russia's forces without risking catastrophic losses. - President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday that Kyiv was "finally" benefiting from the weaponry and ammunition sent by Western partners.
- HIMARS rocket launchers sent by the U.S. have allowed Ukraine to strike ammunition depots and command-and-control centers behind Russian lines. Ukraine also reclaimed the symbolically and strategically important Snake Island with the help of Western weaponry.
What to watch: The pace at which new weaponry and troops are integrated into the fight will be key to Ukraine's efforts to stem its territorial losses and potentially launch a counteroffensive later this summer. - On the other side, Russia has not imposed mass conscription but has reportedly been offering higher-than-normal pay packages for contract soldiers to fill its own ranks.
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| A message from Babbel |
| Prepare for your next summer adventure with Babbel |
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| This summer — whether you're preparing for a trip abroad or looking for a new hobby — you could be speaking a new language in three weeks with Babbel. Even better: Explore the culture behind the language with special courses on topics like sports, travel, festivals and more. Get up to 60% today. |
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| Bonus: Where in the world? |
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| Screengrab via Apple Maps |
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| Today we're visiting 10 megacities in China, all of which have populations of 10+ million. They're numbered roughly according to their population size. An admission: I would not have done well on this quiz. Here are some hints: 1. Biggest city, financial center. 2. Capital. 3 & 4. Two huge tech and trade hubs near Hong Kong. 5. Financial hub and "home of the giant panda." 6. Cultural and commercial hub near the capital. 7. Provisional capital during World War II. 8. An ancient city rich in history and culture. 9. Research hub best known internationally as the likely origin point of the COVID-19 pandemic. 10. Home to the Terracotta Army. Scroll to the bottom for the answers. |
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| 4. Putin says operation has hardly begun |
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| Putin on a visit to Turkmenistan last month. Photo: Getty Images |
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| Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a warning today to those hoping Russia will be defeated militarily in Ukraine: "Largely speaking, we haven't even yet started anything in earnest." What he's saying: In a meeting with parliamentary leaders, Putin claimed Western support for Ukraine would only prolong the war. - Putin, who launched the war in February and has taken maximalist positions for any peace deal, said, "The West wants to fight us until the last Ukrainian" because it wants to weaken Russia and "enforce its version of the global order."
The big picture: Moscow has declared its intention to "liberate" all of the Donbas region, much of which is now utterly destroyed. - However, Nikolai Patrushev, the head of Russia's Security Council, this week reiterated Moscow's initial, broader objective to "demilitarize" all of Ukraine. The Biden administration does not believe Putin's ambitions are confined to the Donbas.
- "We are hearing that they want to defeat us on the battlefield," Putin said Thursday. "Let them try."
- Meanwhile, Ukraine has seen some success in its efforts to retake parts of the southern oblast of Kherson, which could become another major front as the war drags on.
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| 5. Global news roundup |
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| Rwanda President Paul Kagame (L), Angola President Joao Lourenco (C) and Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshisekedi (R) in Luanda, Angola on Wednesday. Photo: Jorge Nsimba/AFP via Getty |
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| The leaders of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda agreed Wednesday in talks mediated by Angola to begin a "de-escalation process." - Yes, but: Clashes continued Thursday between the DRC's military and M23 rebels, which the DRC accuses Rwanda of backing. DRC President Félix Tshisekedi told the FT in an interview before Wednesday's talks that war with Rwanda was possible.
- Flashback: Rwanda and the DRC were on opposite sides of a devastating war that began in the late 1990s, left millions dead, and led to the formation of the militias still fighting in eastern DRC today.
Tunisia and Chile both unveiled draft constitutions within the past week. - Tunisian President Kais Saied's proposal seeks an ultra-powerful presidency that would cement his July 2021 power grab.
- The Chilean proposal seeks to address the institutional inequality that helped spark mass protests in 2019. It has divided the country with its emphasis on environmental and Indigenous rights, and it will be put to a vote on Sept. 4.
Uzbekistan's Karakalpakstan region is under a state of emergency after a deadly crackdown on protests that began there late last week over since-revoked plans to change the constitution to dilute the region's autonomy. Protests are very rare in Uzbekistan. - In other Central Asia news… Kazakhstan is seeking alternative routes for its oil exports after Russia blocked a crucial pipeline.
- Between the lines: The Russian move came after Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has kept his distance from Moscow over the Ukraine invasion, offered to help stabilize Europe's energy supplies.
Secretary of State Tony Blinken is in Bali for a meeting of G20 foreign ministers. He's expected to meet his Chinese, but not his Russian, counterpart. |
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| 6. By the numbers: Hunger on the rise |
 The proportion of the global population experiencing undernourishment rose to 9.8% in 2021, according to an annual UN report on food security. The big picture: The decline in hunger in recent decades had been a massive breakthrough for global development. That trend has slipped into reverse since 2018, according to the UN data. - The UN set a goal in 2015 of eliminating global hunger by 2030, but now estimates that roughly the same percentage (8%) of the world will face hunger then as did in 2015.
- The report's authors cited "conflict, climate extremes and economic shocks, combined with growing inequalities" as the drivers of food insecurity, noting that the war in Ukraine was now further exacerbating the crisis.
- Undernourishment jumped from 8% in 2019 to 9.8% in 2021, largely as a result of the pandemic and the unequal recovery.
Breaking it down: Undernourishment is highest in sub-Saharan Africa (23.2%) and South Asia (16.9%), but it's fallen dramatically since 2005 in China and Southeast Asia. - Outside of Africa, the highest estimated undernourishment rates were in Haiti (47.2%), North Korea (41.6%) and Yemen (41.4%), according to the report.
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| 7. Stories we're watching |
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| Muslim pilgrims pray at the Grand Mosque in Saudi Arabia's holy city of Mecca on July 6. Photo: AFP via Getty Images |
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- Saudi Arabia welcomes 1 million pilgrims for biggest hajj since pandemic began
- Brittney Griner pleads guilty to drug charges in Russia
- Extreme weather events from Italy to Australia
- NATO ambassadors sign accession protocols for Finland, Sweden
- Planning Biden's Saudi trip
- North Korea hack warning
- Colombia's ocean protection pledge
Quoted: "You're a hero, everybody loves you." — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a call today with Boris Johnson. "He doesn't like us, we don't like him either." — Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov's reaction to Johnson's downfall |
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| A message from Babbel |
| Learn a new language this summer with up to 60% off |
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| Babbel provides a flexible, fun and easy way to explore and understand a new language quickly, and with confidence. The strategy: The platform's speech recognition technology helps you improve your pronunciation and accent right from the start. Get conversational in just three weeks. |
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| Answers: 1. Shanghai; 2. Beijing; 3. Guangzhou; 4. Shenzhen; 5. Chengdu; 6. Tianjin; 7. Chongqing; 8. Nanjing; 9. Wuhan; 10. Xi'An. |
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