News : Sacramento's next class of Democrats

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Sacramento's next class of Democrats

Jun 14, 2022

Presented by California Environmental Voters

THE BUZZ: One week after Election Day, the next California Legislature has taken visible shape — as have some of November's marquee multi-Democrat contests.

In one-party California, Democratic differentiation has eclipsed partisan affiliation. Interest groups spend millions of dollars to paint Sacramento a particular shade of blue, and dozens of open seats have intensified a scramble to shape a decade of governance. Several races for open Democratic seats effectively ended last week as voters elevated a Democrat and a Republican, all but ensuring the Democrat wins in November. A few others will proceed to money-soaked Dem-on-Dem matchups.

Here are some takeaways, keeping in mind we don't yet have final vote tallies:

TO THE CENTER: Some Assembly Democrats preferred by business groups and/or the real estate industry are on glide paths to November blowouts as they look to match up with Republicans, in a few cases surpassing labor and the left's favorites to get there. The victors include Juan Carrillo in AD-39, and Blanca Pacheco in AD-64. Diane Papan is positioned to face a token Republican in AD-21, but Giselle Hale is only around 500 votes from vaulting into a top-two spot.

TO THE LEFT: Progressive incumbent Assembly member Alex Lee will face a Republican in November despite real estate interests spending heavily to elevate another Democrat. Democrat Corey A. Jackson wasn't labor's top pick in AD-60, but he drew progressive support and defeated business favorite Jasmin Rubio. The outcome in AD-30 is harder to neatly categorize: Dawn Addis — whose supporters included agriculture, correctional officers and charter schools — surpassed real-estate-backed Zoe Carter and YIMBY-beloved Jon Wizard (charter schools bet well overall, with at least four and up to six of their chosen Democrats poised to claim Assembly open seats).

INCOMING: A few other Democratic contenders for safe seats will eschew Republican opponents in November after consolidating broad support in the primary. That includes Avelino Valencia in AD-68 and Daniel Hertzberg in SD-20. They both have ties to the members they seek to replace: Valencia works for outgoing Assembly member Tom Daly, and Hertzberg is the son of termed-out Sen. Bob Hertzberg (Fresno City Council member Esmeralda Soria was the clear Democratic favorite in AD-27, but a D+16 is no sure thing in the Central Valley).

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: stand with our kids! Your choices in this year's state budget can save California from a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Invest California's record budget surplus in climate solutions now. The governor's $47.1 billion proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years. We need at least $75 billion invested in a Climate Courage Budget. The choice is yours. Our kids' future is at stake.

BIG-BUDGET BRAWLS: Several Democrat-dominated races that generated huge spring spending will yield fall sequels. Business-backed Lily Mei will likely go another round with labor-loved Aisha Wahab in SD-10. Alameda labor leader and union money beneficiary Liz Ortega will face business favorite Shawn Kumagai in AD-20. We'll get a rematch in AD-35 between Leticia Perez and Jasmeet Bains, who has drawn heavy medical sector support but finished far behind Perez. Sacramentans could have two Dem-on-Dems: centrist Angelique Ashby versus further-left Dave Jones for Senate and Stephanie Nguyen against real-estate-and-charters supported Eric Guerra for Assembly, if Guerra retains his tenuous hold on second place.

SPECIAL SAUCE: Two other Dem-on-Dems will go to Round Three in contests that have already drawn heavy spending. Business-backed David Alvarez has a huge margin over labor-preferred Georgette Gómez in a special election to represent open AD-80 for the rest of the year, and left pick Tina McKinnor narrowly leads industry choice Robert Pullen-Miles in an AD-62 special. In both cases, they'll also vie in November for a full term – elections that will test the value of short-term incumbency and the "Assembly member" ballot designation it brings.

THE RIVAS FACTOR: Assembly member Robert Rivas 's path to the speakership runs through this incoming class. So it's worth noting that five of the Assembly Democrats he's supported will face Republicans in blue districts, one of whom already publicly pledged allegiance; four more will face other Democrats.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Tuesday morning. The Legislature sent Gov. Gavin Newsom a budget yesterday — a comfortable cushion before June 15's deadline to pass a blueprint or forfeit pay. But negotiations will continue around major, unresolved areas like how exactly to channel a staggering surplus toward inflation relief.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There's a lot of people here hurting. It's an absolute epidemic, it's not a cliché…The last several years, I've had so many coworkers either kill themselves or attempt to kill themselves — in some cases, multiple times." Cal Fire Captain Tony Martinez on the psychological toll of worsening wildfires, via CalMatters.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Bloomberg reporter @schwahoney on a protracted budget process: "The California budget plan for the fiscal year that starts July 1 went to the governor today. Sort of. Not really."

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

TOP TALKERS

— "Overworked California firefighters struggle with PTSD, suicide, fatigue, intensifying wildfires," by CalMatters' Julie Cart: "Longer and more intense fire seasons have taken a visible toll on the state, leaving a tableau of charred forests and flattened towns. But they've also fueled a silent mental health crisis, including an alarming rise in post-traumatic stress disorder among the ranks of Cal Fire, the state's firefighting service."

CAMPAIGN MODE

— "Topsy-turvy top-two: Is California primary system keeping its promises?" by CalMatters' Ben Christopher: "Approved by voters in 2010 and rolled out for the first time statewide two years later, the system has changed state politics in many of the ways that its proponents promised at the time — and a few ways that they didn't."

— "The Chesa Boudin recall crashed Muni's $400M bond. The same consulting firm led both ," by Mission Local's Joe Eskenazi.

A message from California Environmental Voters:

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— "SoCal's lush golf courses face new water restrictions. How brown will the grass go?" by the LATimes' Ian James and Hayley Smith: "Although the golf industry has long weathered the resentment of nongolfers, owners and managers of links are finding themselves targeted by state water officials who say California is not doing enough to conserve water in a time of severe drought."

— "Mayor Gloria's push for homeless 'progressive enforcement' leads to eightfold spike in arrests ," by inewsource's Cody Dulaney and Danielle Dawson: "As long as shelter beds are available, police will continue enforcing laws that prohibit homeless people from blocking a sidewalk or sleeping somewhere they shouldn't, Gloria said during a Monday press conference."

— "San Jose's decades-long pension problems level out, " by the San Jose Spotlight's Jana Kadah: "The city's pension and retirement costs are declining for the first time in two decades due to double-digit investment returns. The rate of return reached a record high in 2021."

SILICON VALLEYLAND

SPECIAL DELIVERY — Amazon to deliver packages by drone, after a decade of promises , by POLITICO's Oriana Pawlyk: On Monday, Amazon announced that customers in Lockeford, Calif., will be "among the first to receive Prime Air deliveries." In an appearance on the TODAY Show, Amazon said it plans to deliver packages weighing less than five pounds within an hour, using drones ferrying items from a facility roughly 15 miles away.

DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

MEDIA MATTERS

— Tal Kopan is departing the SF Chronicle, where she's been the paper's D.C. correspondent, for a gig with the Boston Globe.

MIXTAPE

— "Avenatti says he wants to plead guilty to California charges," via the AP.

— "Several dozen Yosemite trail sites vandalized - officials seek help identifying suspects," by the SF Chronicle's Jessica Flores.

— " San Lorenzo drag queen storytime hijacked by Proud Boys," by the Bay Area Reporter's Eric Burkett.

— "With start of California fire season, debate rages over best ways to protect your home ," by the LA Daily News's Steve Scauzillo.

IN MEMORIAM

— "Appreciation: Philip Baker Hall played gamblers, producers and presidents. His best role? Friend," by the LATimes' Sam Farmer.

BIRTHDAYS

Meta's Campbell Brown … YouTube's Alexandra Veitch … former President Donald Trump ... Annie Olson … Jon Lentz

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: do you stand with our kids?

Your choices in this year's state budget can either save California or doom it to a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Investing California's record budget surplus in clean energy and transportation, water, and other vital infrastructure now will provide a lifeline.

Climate change will soon bring our home state to a point of no return. We can't overcome this massive threat to our health, lives, and livelihoods without bold leadership and a massive investment. The governor's $47.1 billion climate proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years.

Think bigger and pass a Climate Courage Budget that invests at least $75 billion over five years. The choice is yours but it's our kids' future at stake. Learn more here.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

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