| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | Presented by Emergent | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | DAY 12 … RUSSIA IS KILLING UNARMED UKRAINIANS — You no doubt saw the horrific images of civilians being attacked in Irpin, outside Kyiv, as they tried to evacuate Sunday. People around the world awoke to this ghastly photograph, taken by Lynsey Addario for the NYT, of a mother and her two children lying dead on the ground while a Ukrainian soldier tried to save a male friend traveling with them. He later died. "The shelling," the Times reported, "suggested either targeting of the evacuation routes from Irpin, something of which the Ukrainian authorities have accused the Russian army after a railroad track used for evacuations was hit on Saturday, or disregard for the risk of civilian casualties." The picture was prominently featured on the NYT's homepage all day Sunday, and then above the fold on A1 today.
- NYT's "editors have made an important decision to put the photo by @lynseyaddario on the home page," NYT diplomatic correspondent Edward Wong wrote on Twitter. "Again, Russian forces fired mortar shells at hundreds of Ukrainian civilians as they fled. A mother and her two children were killed here. This is happening across Ukraine."
There's a reason we are witnessing a dramatic escalation of the kind of barbarism Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN demonstrated in Grozny in 1999, when, as PM, he ordered the Chechen city flattened, and Aleppo in 2016, when Russian bombers decimated civilian areas as part of a brutal campaign to save the regime of Syria's BASHAR ASSAD. "Russia answers resistance with firepower," notes the BBC's Jeremy Bowen, who is in Kyiv now and covered the conflicts in Chechnya and Syria. "Rather than send in men to fight from house to house and room to room, their military doctrine calls for a bombardment by heavy weapons and from the air to destroy their enemies." He added, "The depressing conclusion I've drawn from other wars in which I have seen Russians in action is that it could get much worse." On Sunday evening, a senior Pentagon official sent Playbook an update on the Russian military campaign. The headline: While the Russians try to encircle and choke off major cities in the north and east, such as Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv, they "are being met with strong Ukrainian resistance." Some other highlights:
- Russian forces are nearly all in. "We assess that the Russians have now committed inside Ukraine somewhere near 95% of the combat power they had amassed along the border."
- But they remain stuck. "There does not appear to be any significant movement along the Russian axes. Leading elements remain outside these city centers. … The convoy continues to be stalled."
- Russia still does not have air superiority. "[W]e continue to observe that the airspace over Ukraine is contested. Ukrainian air and missile defenses remain effective and in use. The Ukrainian military continues to fly aircraft and to employ air defense assets."
- And they don't seem close to achieving it. "We assess that both sides still possess a majority of their air defense systems and capabilities."
- Ukrainians remain connected to the outside world. "We believe the Ukrainian people in most parts of the country still have means of communication, access to internet and the media."
This could change in a matter of hours. Despite what the world witnessed over the weekend, the BBC notes, "So far, Mr Putin has not given the order to inflict the kind of damage that Russian forces brought down on Grozny." A close adviser to President JOE BIDEN tells Playbook to watch two things in Ukraine this week: (1) a Russian attempt to occupy Odesa and (2) whether Belarus becomes more actively involved in the war.
| | | | A message from Emergent: Emerging threats never stop and neither do we. Our protections help defend against things we hope will never happen – so we are prepared, in case they ever do. Learn how we've become a leader in protecting people against public health threats at www.emergentbiosolutions.com. | | | CONGRESS IS RESPONDING TO THE OUTRAGE — Two unusual dynamics are in motion on the Hill: (1) Congress is actually leading on a major foreign policy issue, pushing forward with legislation that goes beyond the Biden administration's comfort level (at least initially). (2) So far, that push is bipartisan. What to watch:
- Biden's $10 billion war supplemental. More on this below, but it may help unlock the omnibus deal to avert a government shutdown this week.
- A tough new Russia sanctions bill. Legislation being negotiated goes beyond a ban on importing Russian oil and gas. In a letter released Sunday night, Speaker NANCY PELOSI said the House bill would also "repeal normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus," "take the first step to deny Russia access to the World Trade Organization," and "empower the Executive branch to raise tariffs on Russian imports." Read the letter here
- Warplanes for Ukraine. There is little congressional support for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which in practice would mean American aircrafts bombing Russian air defenses and fighter planes. But many in Congress are expressing support for the transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine from former Warsaw Pact countries, such as Poland. Sens. ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio) and JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) sent a letter to the administration asking Biden to negotiate a deal in which any older planes transferred to Ukraine from Eastern European countries are replaced with American fighters. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said Sunday he's already working on the deal.
In her letter Sunday, Pelosi threw her support behind the swap, noting "an urgent request from President [VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY] is to help ensure air support for the Ukrainian armed forces," and that "our nation can provide military equipment and support our allies who are supplying airplanes to Ukraine." The Biden adviser told us the issue was "challenging," but predicted "likely some progress" this week. Why is it challenging? In conversations with European officials in recent days, we heard deep concerns about whether the supply of fighter jets could be interpreted by Putin as little different than a no-fly zone, about which he has warned "any movement in this direction will be considered by us as participation in an armed conflict." Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Emergent:   | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY — The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 9:30 a.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY — The VP will deliver remarks on infrastructure with Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG, EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN and FTA Administrator NURIA FERNANDEZ at 11:35 a.m. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2 p.m. THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up the Postal Service Reform Act, with a vote on the motion to invoke cloture at 5:30 p.m. THE HOUSE will meet at noon, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD: — Tuesday: Biden will travel to Fort Worth, Texas, to speak with veterans, caregivers and survivors about addressing the health effects of environmental exposures such as burn pits. He will also visit the Fort Worth VA Clinic and deliver remarks at Tarrant County Resource Connection. — Wednesday: Biden will meet with business leaders to discuss manufacturing and supply chain issues. Biden will also deliver remarks at the Democratic Senators Issues Conference at Howard University. — Thursday: Biden will welcome Colombian President IVÁN DUQUE MÁRQUEZ to the White House. He will also deliver remarks to DNC members at the winter meeting at the Washington Hilton. — Friday: Biden will travel to Philadelphia to deliver remarks at the House Democratic Caucus Issues Conference.
| | | | HAPPENING TUESDAY, INTERNATIONAL WOMEN'S DAY, AN IMPORTANT CONVERSATION ON THE WOMEN IN AFGHANISTAN: Join Women Rule editor Elizabeth Ralph for a panel discussion on the future for Afghan women. Guests include Hawa Haidari, a member of the Female Tactical Platoon; Cindy McCain, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture; Roya Rahmani, Afghanistan's first female ambassador to the U.S.; and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Learn how female Afghan veterans are planning their futures, what the women still in Afghanistan face, and what the U.S. can do to help. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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VP Kamala Harris marches across the Edmund Pettus Bridge to commemorate the anniversary of "Bloody Sunday" in Selma, Ala., on Sunday. | Brynn Anderson/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS PRESSURE IS ON FOR CONGRESS' OMNIBUS — Once again, Congress is facing down a possible shutdown showdown this week — surprise, surprise — with current government funding expiring at midnight Friday. But even though lawmakers have delayed passing new appropriations bills during the Biden presidency and instead simply extended Trump-era policies, this time, there's new pressure to get the so-called omnibus nailed down. The top motivator? Ukraine money. The White House recently asked Congress for $10 billion to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian invasion — substantially more than the $6.4 billion it had requested a week ago. The plus-up has bipartisan support, and Democrats are hoping that Zelenskyy's weekend plea to lawmakers will push a deal over the finish line. Some GOP lawmakers seem receptive. "It would be political malpractice for us not to help our own military, help the Ukrainians and get a budget," Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) said in a table-setter piece by WSJ's Siobhan Hughes. But that doesn't mean there won't be a few complications. Here are two: 1. A fight over pandemic money.
- The White House last week also asked for another $22 billion in pandemic relief funds.
- Republicans, however, have been skeptical of the ask, demanding more details on how the $5 trillion+ the Hill has already appropriated to combat Covid-19 has been spent.
- They also point to more than $100 billion in unused funds sitting in an account as of late January — though Hughes' WSJ piece has new reporting on that money being totally gone.
- If that doesn't convince Republicans to go along, Democrats could face a real math problem. Remember: They need at least 10 Senate Republicans to clear the upper chamber. And in the House, Pelosi can lose only a couple of votes or she'll have to rely on GOP lawmakers.
2. The clock.
- House Democrats will be heading to Philadelphia on Wednesday for their annual multi-day retreat. Will they have to come back to Washington to clear a spending bill? We'll see. (Senators will also have their own retreat Wednesday, though they'll stay in town.)
- Last week, top Senate GOP appropriator RICHARD SHELBY (Ala.) said lawmakers really need to strike a final deal by Tuesday if they're to get this all done before funding runs out at midnight Friday. If they can't, they may have to pass yet another short-term stopgap.
In her "Dear Colleague" letter Sunday night, Pelosi sounded a confident tone: "The Congress intends to enact this emergency funding this week as part of our omnibus government funding legislation," she said, no hedging. MCCARTHY'S FRINGE PROBLEM — House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY promised to talk with Reps. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) and PAUL GOSAR (R-Ariz.) after they spoke at a white nationalist event, but he hasn't done so yet, Olivia Beavers reports. She notes that he has hardly any leverage left to punish them, since they have already been stripped of their committee assignments. McCarthy could call for censuring them but hasn't. Internally, however, many Republicans want McCarthy to stay focused on more "pressing considerations," Olivia writes. "Even so, leadership's lack of action marks a shift for House Republicans. Some in the GOP say former Speaker JOHN BOEHNER would have told Greene and Gosar immediately to cut it out, as would former Speaker PAUL RYAN." TRUMP CARDS ABOUT LAST NIGHT: BARR IN PRIMETIME — Former A.G. BILL BARR was the subject of an hourlong Sunday night special with NBC's LESTER HOLT in advance of this week's release of "One Damn Thing After Another," his new tell-all on the Trump administration. The newsiest bits:
- On DONALD TRUMP and Jan. 6: "I do think he was responsible in the broad sense of that word, in that it appears that part of the plan was to send this group — many of whom were obviously rowdy and seemed to be dressed for conflict — send them up to the Hill. I think that the whole idea was to intimidate Congress. And I think that was wrong."
- BUT, BUT, BUT: "I haven't seen anything to say he was legally responsible for it, in terms of incitement."
- Would Barr talk to the Jan. 6 committee? "I would certainly try to cooperate."
- On Trump's 2020 campaign: "There's no mystery why he lost. In Wisconsin, he ran 50,000 votes behind the Republican ticket. The Republican Party had a good day in Wisconsin; he was the weak sister on the ballot."
Trump world was none too pleased. "Bill Barr is pulling a Gen. MILLEY! What a coward," tweeted Trump spoxLIZ HARRINGTON. "President Trump fought for America, but sadly, Bill Barr decided [to] turn on him and our nation," added KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE. Barr continues his media circuit with an appearance on the "Today" show this morning.
| | | | A message from Emergent:   | | | THE WHITE HOUSE HEADS UP — Joint Base Andrews underwent a shutdown Sunday evening, shortly after the VP and Cabinet secretaries MARCIA FUDGE, MIGUEL CARDONA, PETE BUTTIGIEG and MICHAEL REGAN returned there from a trip earlier in the day, when a "vehicle drove through the security checkpoint and failed to adhere to commands of security personnel at the Main Gate," according to a statement posted on JBA's Facebook page . "The 316th Security Forces Group immediately deployed the barriers and stopped the vehicle. Two individuals fled the vehicle, and one was apprehended by 316th SFG. One individual remains at large." As of this morning, JBA had reopened its main gate, having "found evidence that the base intruder departed the installation." More from WTOP ALL POLITICS CUOMO: 'LET'S MAKE SOME GOOD TROUBLE' — Ousted former New York Gov. ANDREW CUOMO "made his first public appearance at a close ally's church in Crown Heights, Brooklyn, on Sunday," Anna Gronewald reports. "For about 20 minutes, Cuomo laid out the same defense of his behavior he's held over the past several months, but assured the audience he's been leaning on scripture in a difficult time because 'God isn't finished with me yet.'" "'Let's make some trouble,' he said as a closing line. 'Let's make some good trouble,' he quickly added, quoting a phrase made famous by the late civil rights pioneer, Rep. JOHN LEWIS (D-Ga.)." We've gotta say: It's pretty audacious for Cuomo to invoke the civil rights hero's struggle in his own effort to regain political relevance after being driven to resign following multiple credible allegations of sexual harassment and unwanted touching and kissing. One of these things is not like the other. AEI INVITES DEMS BUT NOT TRUMP — When the conservative American Enterprise Institute hosts its annual World Forum this week in Sea Island, Ga., it won't be a MAGA-friendly affair. Trump "was not invited to the exclusive event, which will be attended by some of the Republican Party's biggest donors," CBS' Robert Costa scoops. "One of the key speakers at this week's gathering will be Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL. … Arizona Governor DOUG DUCEY, who Trump has harshly criticized for refusing to endorse his efforts to decertify President Joe Biden's 2020 win in the state, will also speak at the forum, according to the schedule. … And instead of celebrating Trump, like the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando last month, this year's AEI World Forum will feature Democrats alongside congressional Republican officials and possible contenders for the party's 2024 presidential nomination. "One of those Democrats is BRIAN DEESE, Mr. Biden's top economic adviser. Deese is slated to appear in front of the World Forum audience on Friday, March 11, giving the White House a rare private platform in front of influential GOP donors and business leaders." PAGING MCCONNELL, SCOTT — A headline they won't like just posted on the AP: "Republican 'unforced errors' threaten path to Senate control," by Steve Peoples and Brian Slodysko: "As the prospect of a red wave grows, a series of Republican missteps including recruiting stumbles, weak fundraising and intense infighting is threatening the GOP's path to the Senate majority. Arizona's Republican Gov. Doug Ducey dealt his party its latest setback late last week by announcing he would not challenge Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY this fall. … But the GOP's shortcomings extend well beyond Arizona. "Republican candidates in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are struggling to keep pace with Democratic fundraising. Recruiting failures have dashed GOP hopes in reach states like Maryland and threaten a prime pickup opportunity in New Hampshire. And a recent plan that would raise taxes on low-income Americans and seniors, released by the Republican Senate midterm chief, Florida Sen. RICK SCOTT, is putting GOP candidates in a difficult position across states like Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida." WAR IN UKRAINE THE LESSER EVIL? — Biden officials are now "discussing a possible visit to Saudi Arabia this spring to help repair relations and convince the Kingdom to pump more oil," Axios' Hans Nichols reports. That would be a huge deal given that Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN ordered the murder of JAMAL KHASHOGGI, the WaPo columnist. But, as Nichols writes, "a hat-in-hand trip would illustrate the gravity of the global energy crisis driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. … The possibility also shows how Russia's invasion is scrambling [the] world's alliances, forcing the U.S. to reorder its priorities — and potentially recalibrating its emphasis on human rights." INSIDE THE U.S. OPERATION TO ARM UKRAINE — "In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania, unloading them from giant military cargo planes so they can make the trip by land to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and other major cities," write NYT's David Sanger, Eric Schmitt, Helene Cooper, Julian Barnes and Kenneth Vogel . "So far, Russian forces have been so preoccupied in other parts of the country that they have not targeted the arms supply lines, but few think that can last." THE PANDEMIC CRUSHING MILESTONE — "The official global death toll from COVID-19 is on the verge of eclipsing 6 million," per AP's David Rising. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION CONVOY UPDATE — The truck convoy that came to the D.C. area Sunday didn't have much of an impact, NBC Washington reports. Flagging this: "The group plans to circle the Beltway again on Monday, March 7, but did not provide a schedule."
| | | | DON'T MISS POLITICO'S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Lisa Murkowski celebrated the start of the Iditarod race this weekend. A dose of serotonin: An elementary school in California set up a call-in hotline. Sample option: "If you need a pep talk from kindergartners, press 3." More from NPR's Hiba Ahmad FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sara Spain is now national press secretary at EMILY's List. She most recently was an account supervisor at BerlinRosen, and is a Hillary for America, Ted Strickland campaign and Tennessee Democratic Party alum. — Ascent Media is promoting Matthew Mazzone to partner and bringing on Caleb Fisher as VP for creative strategy. Mazzone previously was SVP for creative strategy at Ascent. Fisher previously was digital director for the Senate Republican Conference, and is a House Republican Conference and Jodey Arrington alum. TRANSITIONS — Shadawn Reddick-Smith has joined Lyft, where she is handling policy comms. She previously was director of strategic comms at DHS. … Rob Damschen is joining Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin's office as deputy comms director. He previously was VP of strategic comms at the National Association of Manufacturers. … Emma Corrado is now senior adviser for community development at the New Jersey Economic Development Authority. She previously was projects specialist for Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.). ENGAGED — Rachael Baitel, chief of staff at Russell Street Ventures and a Trump White House, USAID and DFC alum, and Alec Greenberg, who works for his family's company Wearwell, got engaged Friday. The two were introduced by a mutual friend. Instapic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Natalie Hales, congressional lobbyist for the American Dental Association, and Woody Hales, director of operations for former Speaker Newt Gingrich, welcomed Henry Robert Hales on Friday. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) … Kristan King Nevins … Josh Holly … Guy Benson … Mike Watson … Noreen Nielsen … DNC's Ryan Thomas … Savannah Behrmann … Carol Danko … Elad Strohmayer … Alan Neuhauser … Matt Higginson … Craig Burkhardt … former Reps. Brian Baird (D-Wash.) and Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) … Anne Farris Rosen … Myron Belkind … Katherine Lewis … Nate Evans … Eliza VanZoeren … Matt Handverger … Elizabeth Williams … Matt Glassman … Sally Barth … Mark Schuermann … Anthony Bellotti … Hallie Williams … Joe Fadness of Michael Best Strategies … Michael Eisner (8-0) … Tom Sietsema … Katie McCormick Lelyveld Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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