| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, President JOE BIDEN has focused on three policies: (1) sanctioning Russia, (2) bolstering NATO's defenses and (3) providing security assistance to Ukraine. All three policies have been calibrated to deter Russian President's VLADIMIR PUTIN's aggression without escalating the conflict. Biden departs for Brussels this morning, and on Thursday, he attends a trio of emergency summits — NATO, the G-7 and the European Council — where each of the three pillars of Biden's response to the war will be under pressure. 1. SANCTIONS: On Thursday, Biden and European leaders will reportedly announce a new round of sanctions against more than 300 members of the Russian Duma. Per the WSJ , which broke the news Tuesday night, "The upcoming sanctions package … will target 400 individuals, including 328 lawmakers and Russian elites." The NYT adds that the U.S. has previously sanctioned 12 members of the Duma, but "the announcement on Thursday will go far beyond those sanctions in what one senior official called a 'very sweeping' action." Most summits are organized over the course of months. Thursday's meetings took shape in just days. Some allies balked at the idea of a gathering in Brussels, worried that there wouldn't be much new to say. In the end, Biden personally prevailed over the doubters, per the Times: "The day of summits was Mr. Biden's idea. He settled on it only 10 days ago, aides and diplomats said, hoping to make a show of the continued unity of the West and to send a message to Russia." The biggest question mark when it comes to new sanctions concerns Russian oil and gas. Europe has been unable to agree on an embargo, and Biden is under pressure to broker a compromise. On Tuesday, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN hinted at a potential breakthrough, telling reporters that Biden hoped to "announce joint action on enhancing European energy security and reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas." 2. NATO: Biden's frequent declaration that NATO will defend every inch of its territory will be tested during the three-day trip. There are lingering questions about what NATO would do in response to a cyberattack, or if Putin uses chemical or biological weapons, or if Western shipments of military aid to Ukraine are attacked. "There's still concern among some NATO allies when the Biden administration says 'we will defend every inch of NATO territory,' what exactly that might mean? I think they need to discuss that a bit in more detail," DANIEL HAMILTON, a former deputy assistant secretary of State for European affairs, tells Chris Cadelago and Jonathan Lemire in their must-read piece setting up Biden's trip. There is likely to be more specific news from Biden about NATO's response to Russia. Sullivan said the president would discuss "longer-term adjustments to NATO force posture on the eastern flank." 3. SECURITY ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE: Biden has successfully rebuffed any idea to aid Ukraine militarily that he believes could escalate into a dangerous U.S.-Russia conflict. Whether it's come from hawks in Congress or Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY himself, he has pursued a "Goldilocks" strategy of re-equipping Ukrainians with armaments that have proven to be successful, but which haven't radically altered the balance of power in the war. Biden has said no to a no-fly zone, nixed a transfer of Polish MiGs to Ukraine, and thrown cold water on a proposal to send NATO peacekeepers to the war zone. The longer the conflict rages, the more difficult his disciplined policy of non-escalation will be. Two stories about Russia's inability to gain dominance in the skies over Ukraine point to the ways in which the West has been providing just enough.
- "Nearly a month into the fighting, one of the biggest surprises of the war in Ukraine is Russia's failure to defeat the Ukrainian Air Force," reports the NYT. "Military analysts had expected Russian forces to quickly destroy or paralyze Ukraine's air defenses and military aircraft, yet neither have happened."
- The WSJ adds that Slovakia has sent Ukraine much-coveted Soviet-era S-300s, which can take out high-altitude Russian aircrafts, after Germany and the Netherlands backfilled Slovakia with more modern Patriot systems. So MiGs were a red line that Biden didn't want to cross, while surface-to-air missiles that accomplish the same thing — destroying Russian fighter jets — were OKed.
At his press conference at NATO headquarters Thursday, Biden will surely be asked to explain how he balances such decisions. Especially because he will be speaking not long after Zelenskyy will virtually address Biden and other NATO leaders and reportedly "speak about the need to stop Russia's war crimes by closing the sky above Ukraine or supplying the country with air defenses," according to the Kyiv Independent. Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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See how we're working to help you connect safely. | | | JACKSON CONFIRMATION HEARINGS, DAY 2 — The first full day of questions for Supreme Court nominee KETANJI BROWN JACKSON wrapped up Tuesday night, 13 hours after they began. The biggest source of friction was the accusation that Jackson was too lenient in sentencing sex offenders — a charge "leveled most vociferously Tuesday by Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.). It is not clear how many other Republicans in coming days will be eager to join his line of attack," write WaPo's Seung Min Kim, Aaron Davis and Paul Kane. Worth flagging from the WaPo article:
- The reaction of Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah): "It struck me that it was off course, meaning the attacks were off course that came from some. And there is no 'there' there."
- The reaction of Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va): "'It's Hawley, right?' Manchin said to reporters. 'Take that for what it's worth.'"
Speaking of — Just posted this morning: "GOP's 2024 contenders leap into Supreme Court spotlight," by Burgess Everett For her part, Jackson "sought to direct the blame toward an institution far more unpopular than the federal judiciary: Congress," write Josh Gerstein and Marianne LeVine. "Turning the tables on her lawmaker-critics, Jackson argued that her sentences are Congress' fault because of a 1984 law that sets out the factors judges must consider, including limiting unwarranted disparities between offenders." Further reading: SCOTUSblog: "On second day of hearings, Jackson responds to Republican critiques on criminal sentencing" … NYT's Adam Liptak: "Turns Cautious and Confident, Judge Jackson Takes the Stage" … WSJ: "Ketanji Brown Jackson Steps Around GOP Criticism" NEW POLL: LARGE MAJORITIES BACK GAS TAX PAUSE — As gas prices continue to break national records, American voters are ready for any kind of relief. In new polling out this morning from POLITICO and Morning Consult, 73% of voters said they would support "a temporary break" from federal gas taxes, while 72% support a similar move with state gas taxes.
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| Voters were also asked about other methods to reduce gas prices.
- Sixty-three percent said it's time for the U.S. to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- Fifty-six percent of Republicans support opening up public lands for oil drilling. Seventy-two percent of voters also think domestic producers should just go ahead and pump more oil.
On Ukraine-Russia: Fifty-seven percent of voters told pollsters that a direct war between Russia and NATO allies is likely, with 71% expecting Russia isn't going to stop with Ukraine and will invade other non-NATO countries. Toplines … Crosstabs
| | | |   | | | BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY (all times Eastern): — 8:40 a.m.: The president will depart the White House en route to Brussels, where he is scheduled to arrive at 3:50 p.m. — 4 p.m.: Biden will meet Belgium PM ALEXANDER DE CROO. VP KAMALA HARRIS' WEDNESDAY — The VP will deliver remarks on home valuations with HUD Secretary MARCIA FUDGE and domestic policy adviser SUSAN RICE at 11 a.m. Principal deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and Sullivan will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Brussels. The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 3 p.m. THE SENATE will meet at 10 a.m. to take up the motion to proceed to the America COMPETES Act, which will come up for a vote at 10:30 a.m. The Judiciary Committee will continue its confirmation hearings on Jackson's Supreme Court nomination at 9 a.m. THE HOUSE is out.
| | | | JOIN THURSDAY FOR A CONVERSATION ON CRYPTOCURRENCY AND REGULATION: Cryptocurrency has gone mainstream. With the market now valued at $1.8 trillion, Washington's oversight of the fast-growing industry remains in its infancy. How should Congress and federal agencies shape future regulation of digital asset markets? Join POLITICO in person or virtually for a deep-dive discussion on what's next for crypto, regulation and the future of finance. Programming will run from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. EDT with a reception from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. EDT. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson's parents, Johnny and Ellery Brown, speak with her sherpa, former Sen. Doug Jones, during her confirmation hearings Tuesday. | Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | ALL POLITICS EXCLUSIVE: NRCC POLL SHOWS GOP ON TARGET FOR MIDTERMS — This morning, NRCC officials will unveil the results of their most recent internal battleground poll of voters in 77 competitive districts. The numbers will be presented to House Republicans at their three-day retreat in Florida, but we have them here first. The upshot won't surprise anyone: Voters blame Democrats for inflation and crime. But what might surprise you: just how much politics has shifted in these districts.
- Republicans lead the generic ballot by 4 points. Biden won these battleground seats by an average of 5.5 points.
- In these districts, 75% of swing voters say Democrats are "out of touch" or "condescending." About two-thirds say Democrats are spending too much money in Washington.
- Biden's net approval rating in these districts is -15. About 40% of voters in these seats approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 55% disapprove. Among independent voters, his net approval is -32 — a 34-point swing since February 2021 from a group that often dictates which party holds the House majority. And among Hispanic voters, his net approval is -10, a drop of 31 points in the same time frame.
- Economic concerns substantially advantage the GOP. Voters who identified jobs/the economy as their No. 1 concern favor Republicans by 20 points on the generic ballot. Among those who put "cost of living" at the top, Republicans are at a 24-point advantage. Speaking of inflation …
- NRCC polling suggests Dems' "Putin price hike" talking point isn't working: "52% of battleground voters blame high gas prices on the Biden Administration and Congressional Democrats' unwillingness to allow more oil and gas production in the United States, compared to only 31% who blame the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil and gas," the memo reads.
"This survey confirms what we already knew: Republicans have a winning economic message and Democrats' failure to combat rising costs is repelling swing-voters heading into the midterms," NRCC Chair TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) will say in a release that will be sent out today. Take the results with a grain of salt, obviously: The numbers are committee internals. Also keep in mind that this is too small a sample to tell us about individual districts, but in aggregate, it comprises what the NRCC sees as a representative sample of the seats that will be up for grabs in November. Read the NRCC release here … The full memo THE MEADOWS SAGA CONTINUES — "Debra Meadows appears to have filed three false voter forms," WaPo's Glenn Kessler reports in a story that went up at 3 a.m. WE'LL ALWAYS HAVE DES MOINES — Top Democratic Party officials are circulating plans for "a 2024 presidential nominating calendar that would select up to five states to hold contests before March based upon a new set of criteria that appears designed to exclude a return of the Iowa caucuses to their first-in-the-nation status," WaPo's Tyler Pager and Michael Scherer report. The criteria: (1) "the diversity of the electorate 'including ethnic, geographic, union representation, economic, etc.;'" (2) "the competitiveness of the state in a general election;" (3) "the ability of the state to administer a 'fair, transparent and inclusive' process." Among the states that could move up: Michigan and New Jersey. JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH HAVEN'T HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE — "Capitol rioter Evan Neumann granted asylum in Belarus, state media says," by WaPo's Rachel Pannett CONGRESS BRAUN: INTERRACIAL MARRIAGE BEST LEFT UP TO STATES — In a conference call with reporters Tuesday, Sen. MIKE BRAUN (R-Ind.) said that he believes that the Supreme Court's ruling in Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided and that abortion rights should be left up to the states. In a follow-up, Dan Carden of the Times of Northwest Indiana asked if he applied that same rationale to other rulings. Carden: "So, you would be okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interractial marriage to the states?" Braun: "Yes, I think that that's something that — if you're not wanting the Supreme Court to weigh in on issues like that, you're not going to be able to have your cake and eat it, too. I think that's hypocritical." Carden: "What about Griswold v. Connecticut?" Braun: "Well, you can list a whole host of issues. … I'm going to say they're not going to all make you happy within a given state. But we're better off having states manifest their points of view, rather than homogenizing it across the country, as Roe v. Wade did." Writes Carden: "Braun later walked back his comments by claiming he misunderstood the question, despite the question being asked multiple times in different ways to ensure Braun meant and understood what he said concerning interracial marriage." REPLACING DON YOUNG — Alaska is aiming to hold an all-mail special election to fill the late representative's seat in June, report Anchorage Daily News' Nathaniel Herz and James Brooks.
| | | |   | | | WAR IN UKRAINE THE LATEST — "Putin spokesman refuses to rule out use of nuclear weapons if Russia faced an 'existential threat,'" CNN … "Russian forces are now shelling Mariupol from the sea," WaPo … "Ukraine says Russia seized relief workers in Mariupol convoy," AP … "As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin's Leadership," NYT WHY DID RUSSIA USE HYPERSONIC MISSILES? — Sources tell our Alexander Ward that "the leading theory … is that it's running out of precision-guided weapons to strike faraway targets. … The best explanation Western governments have for Putin's reach for the hypersonic missiles is that his stockpile is low after launching more than 1,100 missiles into Ukraine since Feb. 24, leaving it with fewer weapons to reliably hit positions deep in the country." THE WHITE HOUSE BIDEN SUPPORTERS FIND A NEW REASON FOR DISAPPOINTMENT — "President Joe Biden sold last year's $550 billion plan for new infrastructure spending by promising it will spur transformative climate and equity programs nationwide," writes Zack Colman. "The problem: states control most of the cash and may not share his goals of tackling climate change or reversing the effects of institutionalized racism. … "[T]he lack of federal control over how these dollars are spent is raising doubts about whether Biden can meet his pledges, disappointing his supporters. … About 75 percent of the infrastructure law will be distributed to states via a complicated formula set by existing statute, including the bulk of federal highway dollars. Communities that have for decades been on the short end of federal funding worry that these constraints will leave them in the same position, missing out on historic cash infusions." BEYOND THE BELTWAY DESANTIS ATTACKS NCAA OVER TRANS STUDENT ATHLETES — On Tuesday, Florida Gov. RON DeESANTIS "slammed the NCAA for allowing a transgender swimmer to compete for and win a women's championship," writes Andrew Atterbury. He also signed "a proclamation honoring University of Virginia swimmer and Sarasota native EMMA WEYANT as the 'best female' in the 500m freestyle race, taking a shot at [LIA] THOMAS, who beat Weyant by 1.75 seconds to win the NCAA title last week." — BUT, BUT, BUT: Some Republican governors are striking a different tone. This week, Indiana Gov. ERIC HOLCOMB and Utah Gov. SPENCER COX "vetoed bills that would have barred transgender girls from competing in female sports at school … as the debate over whether transgender athletes can compete in sports leagues that differ from their biological sex at birth has become a contentious battle in some state legislatures," WSJ's Jennifer Calfas notes. "Leaders in both GOP-led state legislatures on Tuesday said they intend to hold votes to override these vetoes." AMERICA AND THE WORLD CONSIDER IT A DEAL — The U.S. and the U.K. reached a trade deal Tuesday that will remove Trump-era "U.S. tariffs on British steel and aluminum, while the U.K. will lift levies on American whiskey, motorcycles and tobacco," WSJ's Yuka Hayashi reports.
| | | | DON'T MISS POLITICO'S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Jen Psaki tested positive for the coronavirus … again. Hillary Clinton tested positive, too. Bill Clinton is testing negative and in quarantine. The former secretary of State asked Twitter for movie recommendations. Bernie Sanders swung by Bryant Gumbel's HBO show to talk about baseball — specifically, his efforts to strip the MLB of its antitrust exemption. ( TweetsAdam H. Johnson: "Will never stop being hilarious to me [that] the Dodgers leaving Brooklyn in 1957 is Bernie's 'Joker' origin story, and he's trying to get revenge 65 years later.") Mackenzie Scott revealed that she's donated $436 million to Habitat for Humanity. Jaime Harrison is gearing up for "an extended stay" in Utah this summer. OUT AND ABOUT — Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova spoke to members of the University Club during an hourlong speech Tuesday night, reiterating her call for the U.S. and other Western allies to increase aid and military support to Ukraine. — The RNC hosted its annual Black Republican Trailblazers reception Tuesday night in Arlington, Va. Chair Ronna McDaniel presented Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears with the Trailblazer Award, Indiana GOP Director of Diversity and Engagement Whitley Yates with the Emerging Leader Award and Woodson Center Founder and President Bob Woodson with the Legacy Award. Pics — SPOTTED at a Playbook and Showtime's "The Circus" conversation and cocktails event Tuesday night on the rooftop of the International Spy Museum: Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), John McCarthy, Michael LaRosa, Remi Yamamoto, Talia Jackson, Josh Dawsey, Ari Melber, Sam Feist, David Chalian, Jeremy Barr, Gloria Borger, Tammy Haddad, Michael Falcone, Matt Gorman, Scott Mulhauser, Sarah Ellison, Olivia Nuzzi, Liz Johnson, Juleanna Glover, Ted Johnson, Olivia Peterson, Ian Sams, Pili Tobar and Steve Scully. Pics FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Rebecca Bill Chavez will be president and CEO of the Inter-American Dialogue. She previously was a senior fellow and is an Obama administration alum. TRANSITIONS — Connor Hinson is now a research assistant for the Senate Homeland Security GOP. He previously was a legislative correspondent for Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio). … Gabriel Muller has launched his own editorial consultancy that specializes in narrative coaching, ghostwriting and intensive writing training for business executives and thought leaders. He previously was at The Atlantic. WEEKEND WEDDING — James Baker III, director of public policy for Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas), and Sarah Ferman, senior public affairs specialist at Tyler Technologies, got married Saturday at the Fairmont Banff Springs in Alberta, Canada. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas) … NRCC's Theresa Winegar … The Intercept's Ryan Grim … Suzanne Turner … Johnny DeStefano of Utility Strategic Advisors … cartoonist Kevin Kallaugher … Evan Keller … Maggie Gage of OneMain Financial … Mike Berman of Citadel … Alec Gerlach … Paul Neaville of the Markham Group … Cole Rojewski … Buckeye Institute's Mike Franc … Shane Seaver … McKinsey's Tara Maller … Nita Chaudhary … AFL-CIO's Drew Waxman … LegiStorm's Keturah Hetrick … former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (7-0) … Michael Caputo (6-0) … APCO Worldwide's Joanna London … Boeing's Shaun Lara Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com . Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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