| | | | | | | Presented By Facebook | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By the Axios Politics team ·Feb 23, 2022 | | Welcome back to Sneak. 📅 Join Axios virtually for our inaugural What's Next Summit on April 5. Learn more and register here for livestream sessions discussing trends that will revolutionize our future. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,173 words ... 4.5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Scoop - Senator warns of broader war |  | | | Sen. Mark Warner. Photo: Tom Brenner/Bloomberg via Getty Images | | | | The top senator overseeing U.S. intelligence agencies tells Axios' Jonathan Swan and Zachary Basu he's deeply concerned cyberattacks launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin could morph into a broader war drawing in NATO nations — including the United States. Why it matters: President Biden has ruled out American boots on the ground in Ukraine. But Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.), said in an interview today that Putin's actions during the next few days risk triggering NATO's Article 5 collective defense principle. - In a 2021 communique, NATO affirmed the alliance would weigh whether to trigger its Article 5 mutual defense pact over a cyberattack "on a case-by-case basis."
- It said the response "need not be restricted to the cyber domain."
Details: Warner foresees two ways a digital war could draw in NATO countries, including the U.S.: - Putin deploys cyber weapons inside Ukraine that take on a life of their own and spread to NATO member states. This has happened before — most notably in 2017, when Russia's NotPetya malware was unleashed in Ukraine and ended up causing billions of dollars in damage to companies worldwide.
- Putin retaliates against the West's toughest sanctions by ordering direct cyberattacks targeting infrastructure inside the U.S. and other NATO allies. The U.S. government issued an alert this week urging businesses and agencies to protect their "most critical digital assets," citing "the potential for the Russian government to consider escalating its destabilizing actions" beyond Ukraine.
What they're saying: "If you're suddenly having 190,000 troops attack Ukraine, chances are, if he's coming in that hard kinetic, that the cyberattack will not be a single piece of malware," Warner told Axios. - "It could spread to America, could spread to the U.K., but the more likely effect will be spreading to adjacent geographic territory ... [such as] Poland."
- "It suddenly gets into a gray area about, what would the Polish people's reaction be? What would NATO's reaction be? What would America's reaction be? Nobody's physically shot at [American troops], but they could come in harm's way."
Then there are potential cyberattacks from Putin targeted at NATO member states. - Dmitri Alperovitch, a Russian-born U.S. computer security expert, said Putin could respond to the most severe Western sanctions by giving ransomware groups an "implicit carte blanche" to declare "open season," while Russian government forces could be ordered to target critical infrastructure.
Context: The "denial-of-service" attacks reported in Ukraine during the past two weeks were significant, but nowhere near the scale of massive Russian cyberattacks U.S. officials fear could paralyze communications and shut down critical infrastructure during an invasion. - Many forms of malware are designed to multiply and overwhelm targets and continue wreaking havoc.
- They rarely have "off" buttons by design — and they don't recognize international boundaries.
Keep reading. |     | | | | | | 2. Biden: Drill. Please, drill |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | As President Biden confronts soaring energy costs, he's looking for help from two entities he's criticized for years: Big Oil and Saudi Arabia. Why it matters: The president of the United States is placing part of his political fate into the hands of people who question his long-term intentions and have little incentive to help him, straining his options to contain energy prices. Another challenging option: a nuclear deal with oil-rich Iran, Axios' Hans Nichols writes. - The White House is bracing for Russia's invasion of Ukraine to send gasoline prices soaring, adding more pressure to the current 7.5% inflation rate.
- While Biden isn't adopting the old Republican "drill, baby, drill" mantra, he's sending signals to oil companies that he wants their help to prevent prices at the pump from surging.
- He's also leaning on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — which he called a "pariah" during the 2020 presidential campaign — to increase its production.
- "We're working closely with major energy producers," Daleep Singh, the deputy national security adviser for international economics, told reporters on Tuesday. "We can work with energy companies to surge their capacity to supply energy to the market, particularly as prices rise."
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | 3. Charted: Biden's GOP boosters |  Data: Quorum; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina have voted with Democrats to confirm the majority of the president's judicial nominees, according to data from Quorum reviewed by Axios' Stef Kight. Why it matters: After notching more judicial confirmations during his first year than any other president since Ronald Reagan, Biden has promised to announce a Supreme Court nominee by the end of the month. Republicans cannot filibuster, but the president will need every vote he can get in a 50-50 split Senate. - Of note: The data does not include the confirmations for Judge Armando Bonilla or Judge Carolyn Lerner, who were confirmed via voice votes.
- The data was current as of early this month.
By the numbers: Collins has voted "yea" for Biden's judicial nominees 51 out of 59 times — more than any other Republican. - Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is the only senator to have never voted for one of Biden's judicial picks, according to the data. Seven other Republicans have only voted "yea" once.
- No Democrats have voted "nay" on a nominee, although several have missed votes.
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | A message from Facebook | | Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations | | |  | | | | Paige is one of many experts working on privacy at Facebook — to give you more control over your information. Hear more from Paige on why Facebook supports updating regulations on the internet's most pressing challenges, including federal privacy legislation. | | | | | | 4. Worthy of your time |  | | | U.N. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield speaks about Russia's threat to Ukraine during an address to the General Assembly 58th plenary meeting. Photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images | | | | 📺 White House press secretary Jen Psaki is being courted by two major cable news networks for a possible on-air gig after she leaves the White House, Axios' Andrew Solender writes from a Puck News dispatch. - Executives from both NBC and CNN have made treks to Washington for lunch meetings with Psaki, the outlet reported. Psaki previously worked for CNN.
🏛️ House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the Capitol Police have "a good handle" on how to secure the Capitol for the president's State of the Union Address amid reports of anti-mandate truck convoys making their way to D.C. to disrupt the proceedings. - The Capitol Police sent an alert warning the convoys "may cause higher than normal traffic volume and possible disruptions on roadways."
🎤 Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a member of The Squad, has been tapped to deliver the State of the Union response from the progressive Working Families Party. - "Democrats are in the majority and must set a new course that moves with a sense of urgency," Tlaib said in a statement.
🗳️ Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) is up with his first campaign ad of the cycle, indicating he plans to run for re-election despite being drawn into a district with Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and also facing Trump-endorsed state Rep. Steve Carra. - In the ad, Upton, who voted for former President Trump's impeachment, touts his support for "common-sense conservative policies." In a swipe at his more Trump-aligned opponents, he adds, "If you want a rubber stamp as your congressman, I'm the wrong guy."
📊 An AP-NORC poll found just 26% of Americans believe the U.S. should play a "major role" in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while 52% say it should play a minor role — and 20% say it shouldn't play any role. - 32% of Democrats in the poll say the U.S. should play a major role, compared to 22% of Republicans.
| | | | | | | | 5. Pic du jour |  | | | Photo: Aimee Dilger/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images | | | | Supporters of the truck convoys show their support on the route to Washington. | | | | | | | | A message from Facebook | | Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations | | | | | | | | Paige is one of many experts working on privacy at Facebook — to give you more control over your information. Hear more from Paige on why Facebook supports updating regulations on the internet's most pressing challenges, including federal privacy legislation. | | | | 🐫 Is Wednesday or Thursday Hump Day during a holiday week? Thanks for reading before you ponder that question! Subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. |  | Bring the strength of Smart Brevity® to your team — more effective communications, powered by Axios HQ. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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