Saturday, February 12, 2022

Axios Pro Rata: 🥑 Big chip week

Plus: Arm's China woes | Saturday, February 12, 2022
 
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Axios Pro Rata
By Kia Kokalitcheva ·Feb 12, 2022

Ok, not that kind of chip.

  • 🚨 Reminder: Feel free to send me tips or comments by replying to this email or on Twitter @imkialikethecar.

Today's Smart Brevity™ count is 1,021 words, a 4-minute read.

 
 
1 big thing: Arm's failed Nvidia deal spotlights challenger tech
Illustration of a dollar bill broken up into various connected squares

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

A big week of news in the chip industry has brightened the spotlight on an open-sourced architecture known as RISC-V.

Why it matters: Arm, whose sale to Nvidia collapsed, has dominated the market for low-power chips for mobile devices. But rivals — such as those using RISC-V — won't waste an opportunity to weaken Arm's stronghold, especially as the British company remains in ownership limbo and deals with a rogue JV (more on that below).

Flashback: Softbank acquired Arm in 2016 for $32 billion — at the time, one of the biggest deals in the industry — and last year said it would unload the company for about $40 billion to Nvidia, a Silicon Valley-based chip designer and manufacturer.

  • For SoftBank, the deal would have meant pocketing a modest profit — and some liquidity for the limited partners in its first Vision Fund, which currently holds 25% of Arm's ownership.
  • On the other side, the deal would have transformed Nvidia into the ultimate semiconductor design powerhouse.

But regulators objected, with the FTC filing a lawsuit in December on the heels of U.K. regulators launching an investigation of their own that signaled deep concerns over the deal.

The big picture: Arm has grown to dominate the market for low-power chips thanks to efficient, highly customizable architecture that's easy for customers to tweak to fit their exact needs.

  • Yes, but: In recent years, a number of companies have begun to work on their own in-house chip designs — in no small part to move away from their dependency on Arm.
  • "The controversy over Nvidia buying Arm was good for RISC-V because it made people wonder what would happen with Arm," TIRIAS Research principal analyst Kevin Krewell tells Axios. Nvidia competitors were immediately concerned about how the merger could impact Arm's independence and relationship with customers.

What's RISC-V? Designed in 2010 by researchers at the University of California, in Berkeley, RISC-V is a competing chip architecture that's gained momentum in part because it's open-sourced.

  • Similar to other open-source technologies, a number of startups with various business models have emerged, including vendors of licenses for RISC-V-based chip designs (similar to Arm's business model).

The intrigue: RISC-V got another boost this week: longtime Arm rival Intel announced it's joining RISC-V International, the nonprofit supporting and evangelizing the standard, and committed $1 billion to invest in startups building on the architecture.

  • "This was just a recognition by Intel that RISC-V has now moved along enough to be invested in," explains Krewell, adding, "I think it's a way for Intel to undercut Arm a bit."
  • Other RISC-V collaborators include DARPA, the Pentagon's emerging tech division, and a number of other large tech companies.
  • Krewell also notes that by and large, new startups doing central processing unit chips are using the RISC-V architecture instead of Arm's, underscoring the quiet momentum that's already building.

What to watch: Whether Google, a founding member of RISC-V International, releases a version of its Android operating system for the architecture. "That'll be an inflection point," says Krewell.

  • And of course, what happens with Arm's upcoming IPO.
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2. Arm IPO hurdle
Illustration of a scale with colored shapes and images of dollars.

Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios

 

SoftBank chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son struck an enthusiastic tone during Tuesday's quarterly earnings when discussing Arm's upcoming IPO — but behind the scenes, a power struggle threatens to derail plans for a smooth listing.

Driving the news: Allen Wu, the head of Arm's Chinese joint venture, filed a third legal challenge against the company in September through a shareholder company, seeking to be reinstated to its board, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

  • Backstory: Despite Arm China's board voting in July 2020 to oust him, Wu remains the legal head of the unit as he is still in possession of its "chop," a seal required by Chinese law to officially authorize company documents — and he's reportedly cutting off communications with his UK bosses.

Why it matters: This struggle has already created problems for Arm, which warned last month that due to the dispute it hasn't been able to access company accounts to audit financials.

  • Arm China has historically contributed about a fifth of Arm's revenues, the FT notes. Arm continues to receive revenue payments from its Chinese unit, which says it continues to provide financial information.

What to watch: Whether Arm can resolve the issues in time to execute its IPO, which it hopes to do in the next 12 months.

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3. Fixing the chip shortage
Illustration collage of a computer chip set amongst graphic shapes and close-up crops of a one dollar bill

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

 

Parallel to Arm's trials and tribulations, the chip shortage continues to pose a challenge for the U.S., and the country has to fight it on two fronts: the supply chain and geopolitical tensions.

Why it matters: Microchips are in just about any electronic device, big or small.

State of play: A shortage of chips in cars has caused delays in vehicle orders, and is blamed in part for U.S. GDP continuing to lag its pre-pandemic trend.

  • This stemmed from the industry's underestimation of vehicle demand at the beginning of the pandemic.

Meanwhile: There are ongoing concerns about the locations of critical chip manufacturers.

  • Most of the supply of advanced chips comes from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and is concentrated in Asia.
  • The growing tensions with China over Taiwan are making dependence on this supplier very worrisome. Ditto for manufacturers in South Korea, where North Korea is the political concern.

What's next: Intel recently announced it will invest $20 billion in two leading-edge chip factories in Ohio, while TSMC is building a facility in Phoenix.

  • Still: Industry observers say Intel has not yet successfully built chips that can rival TSMC's 5-nanometer product, my colleague Margaret Harding McGill has noted.
  • House lawmakers introduced legislation that could see a vote soon to dedicate $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor production — which would help address the long-term issue but not the current supply crunch.
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A message from Emergent BioSolutions

We Go to protect against public health threats
 
 

Emergent develops, manufactures and delivers protections against critical health threats — from fighting cholera and smallpox to counteracting opioid overdoses, and manufacturing vaccines and treatments that create a better, more secure world for us all.

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📚 Due Diligence
  • The next microchip crisis will be bigger. (Axios)
  • Congress' chip-funding pause raises alarms. (Axios)
  • Intel CEO sees making own chips as a matter of national security. (Axios)
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🧩 Trivia

Arm's chip architecture may be the foundation to a number of 21st-century devices such as smartphones, but the company very much predates them.

  • Question: What year was Arm Ltd. founded and where? (Answer at the bottom.)
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🧮 Final Numbers
Data: Dealogic. Chart: Sara Wise/Axios
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A message from Emergent BioSolutions

We Go to protect against public health threats
 
 

Emergent develops, manufactures and delivers protections against critical health threats — from fighting cholera and smallpox to counteracting opioid overdoses, and manufacturing vaccines and treatments that create a better, more secure world for us all.

And that's why We Go.

 

🙏 Thanks for reading! See you Monday for Axios Pro Rata's weekday programming, and please ask your friends, colleagues and chip manufacturers to sign up.

Trivia answer: Arm was established in 1990, in Cambridge, U.K.

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