| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | UKRAINE LATEST — Tuesday saw a flurry of activity in Washington, Moscow and Brussels, but little clarity as to whether Europe was closer to a war — one that President JOE BIDEN warned would be "the largest invasion since World War II" and "would change the world." Let's start with this bit of reconnaissance about the latest Russian military moves deep in WaPo's Ukraine ledeall: "Analysts from the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent Russian open-source investigative outfit that monitors Russia's military, reported Tuesday the first confirmed video of Russian paratroopers moving closer to Ukraine, calling the development 'ominous' because it follows the movement of Russian military groups into Belarus, north of Kyiv." More from their Twitter feed Other ominous signs: — WaPo: Russia announced new military exercises "involving thousands of troops, tanks, elite paratroopers and short-range ballistic missiles" that "are intended to project strength, keep Moscow's foes off balance and intensify pressure on NATO and Ukraine … "The Russian Defense Ministry also announced the arrival of Pacific Fleet forces in Belarus ahead of a major military exercise with that country next month, further fueling Western alarm over a possible invasion of Ukraine." — Biden, speaking to reporters , elaborated on recently announced plans to boost defenses of NATO countries in Eastern Europe: "I may be moving some of those troops in the nearer term, just because it takes time." — In Moscow, President VLADIMIR PUTIN's longtime spokesman, DMITRY PESKOV, said putting those NATO troops on high alert was "building up tension" and that Russia was "observing these actions of the United States with profound concern." — Outside Kyiv, KRISTINA KVIEN, America's top official in the country, posed alongside a shipment of U.S.-made missiles and other weaponry and declared , "Let me underscore that Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine at the behest of the Kremlin will face fierce resistance. The losses to Russia will be heavy." — In Brussels, our colleagues David Herszenhorn and Lili Bayer report that despite White House efforts to paper over differences this week, there is still no consensus among European diplomats about what would trigger the "sanctions with massive consequences" that Biden officials have threatened: "Establishing clear parameters for imposing sanctions on Russia, which diplomats say would be the most hard-hitting penalties ever imposed, is especially challenging given Russia's extensive capabilities to carry out military or hybrid strikes, including cyberattacks. Many analysts say that a conventional land invasion is only one option, and perhaps not the most likely scenario." — Meanwhile, the White House briefed reporters on two new plans to discourage Putin from an attack. The details were vague, but the Biden administration is threatening to choke off Russia's ability to import "sophisticated technologies that we design and produce that are essential inputs to Russia's strategic ambitions," in areas such as "artificial intelligence or quantum computing, or defense, or aerospace." Officials also said they are working to mitigate the effects of Russia responding to sanctions by shutting down its natural gas supplies to Europe. The administration's goal is to ease the concerns of countries like Germany, which relies heavily on Russia-supplied energy. Judge for yourself if this plan, described by a senior administration official, sounds fully baked: "We've been working to identify additional volumes of non-Russian natural gas from various areas of the world — from North Africa and the Middle East to Asia and the United States. "Correspondingly, we're in discussions with major natural gas producers around the globe to understand their capacity and willingness to temporarily surge natural gas output and to allocate these volumes to European buyers." More on the plan from NYT's David Sanger
| | | | A message from The American Beverage Association: At America's beverage companies our plastic bottles are made to be remade. We're carefully designing them to be 100% recyclable, including the caps—so every bottle can become a new one. That means less plastic waste in our environment. Please help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org | | | What do experts think of Biden's latest moves? "The administration is clearly beginning to move from a reactive to a proactive mode. That is a good thing," KURT VOLKER, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, told Playbook. But, he added, "deployments to reassure NATO countries, while important, still do not do much for Ukraine. And of course U.S. forces are 'on alert' but not yet deployed. We have a short window to convince Putin that the costs of a new invasion are too high for Russia. So far, I don't think he is convinced." EVELYN FARKAS, who was BARACK OBAMA's deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, told us: "I am heartened by the announcements about the troop deployments, the export control sanctions and the behind the scenes conversations about eliminating the Russian energy blackmail card (finding other ways to provide natural gas to Europe). "I am worried about the timeline, because Putin will not want to upset [Chinese] President XI [ JINPING] by launching an invasion during the Olympics, which means he either has to move before Feb. 4 or thereafter … I am more worried about this coming week. "Having said that, the administration and the allies have taken a lot of strong moves and if they keep showing firmness, resolve and maybe some creativity and proactiveness (like Finland joins NATO), Putin may choose the diplomatic path. We can't rule out the diplomatic path entirely — although I put 80% chances on a military move." Related reads: "Talks in Paris aim to resolve the crisis over Ukraine, as U.S. steps up arms shipments to Kyiv," WaPo … "Ukraine 'will not accept' concessions to Russia, Foreign Minister says," CNN Good Wednesday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri. SURVEY SAYS — It's bad news/mildly good news for Biden 2024 in the latest weekly POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. First the bad: If the election were held today, Biden would lose badly to a generic Republican, 46% to 37%. The unnamed Republican candidate would carry 41% of independent voters, vs. just 21% for Biden. But since Biden will be running against an actual person, we asked about some of his most likely opponents. Biden fares better in head-to-head matchups against DONALD TRUMP, MIKE PENCE, RON DESANTIS and TED CRUZ, tying or edging out each of them:
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| Meanwhile, 49% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters chose the former president as their top pick in a potential GOP primary. That doesn't look great for Trump, but he still easily outpaces the field: In second place was DeSantis at 14%, followed by Pence at 13%. Take Trump out of the running and no other potential candidate got anywhere near half the vote. DeSantis leads the pack with 25%, followed by DONALD TRUMP JR. with 24% and Pence with 12%. Toplines … Crosstabs
| | | | A message from The American Beverage Association:   America's beverage companies are working together to reduce our industry's plastic footprint by investing in efforts to get our plastic bottles back. Our goal is for every bottle to become a new one, so they don't end up in our oceans, rivers and landfills. EveryBottleback.org | | | BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY: — 10:15 a.m.: The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 1 p.m.: Biden will meet with private-sector CEOs to discuss his Build Back Better agenda. — 3:30 p.m.: Biden will sign an executive order to make sexual harassment an offense in the Uniform Code of Military Justice and to strengthen the military's response to domestic violence and the wrongful broadcast or distribution of intimate visual images. The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 11 a.m. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2 p.m. THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out.
| | | | JOIN FRIDAY TO HEAR FROM GOVERNORS ACROSS AMERICA : As we head into the third year of the pandemic, state governors are taking varying approaches to public health measures including vaccine and mask mandates. "The Fifty: America's Governors" is a series of live conversations featuring various governors on the unique challenges they face as they take the lead and command the national spotlight in historic ways. Learn what is working and what is not from the governors on the front lines, REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) campaigns with GOP Senate candidate David McCormick in Coplay, Pa., on Tuesday. | Matt Rourke/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | THE WHITE HOUSE BUSTING OUT OF THE D.C. BUBBLE — As the VP looks to start her second year in office on a different foot, Chris Cadelago and Eugene report on how Harris, her aides and her allies are eager for her to get outside the D.C. bubble to reintroduce herself and her policy portfolio to the country. As Harris' new comms director JAMAL SIMMONS put it: "'The first year was spent passing a lot of things, getting a lot of business done that American people needed,' Now, he said, Harris and Biden 'need to spend more time telling people about the benefits. And also connecting people who don't live in Washington to this work so they understand how they benefit.'" COMING UP — The president is set to meet the emir of Qatar, SHEIKH TAMIM BIN HAMAD AL THANI, on Monday, and the two plan to discuss "Middle East security, ensuring the stability of global energy supplies and the situation in Afghanistan," AP reports . Also of note: "Qatar is one of the world's larger suppliers of liquefied natural gas and is among countries that the U.S. is hoping could aid Europe should a Russian invasion of Ukraine lead to Moscow stemming the flow of energy." CONGRESS HOUSE DEMS ROLL OUT COMPETITION BILL — House Democrats on Tuesday night unveiled a proposal to try to address supply-chain issues and boost American competition with China, the party's answer to the supply-chain problem plaguing the nation. The proposal, called "America Competes," is their version of the Senate's bipartisan U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, a $200 billion package aimed at boosting manufacturing and alleviating the global chip shortage. The Senate passed the bill in June with 18 Republicans voting in favor, but House Democrats sat on it for seven months. Now, however, supply-chain issues have spooked vulnerable frontliners, who are demanding the party do something — anything — to try to address the matter. The White House has also given the House a gentle nudge, asking them to move the bill quickly. Our Pro Trade colleague Gavin Bade (no relation to Rachael!) reports that the House version of the bill includes a number of aggressive trade provisions that will surely trigger corporate lobbying and intense negotiations with the Senate. The U.S. Chamber may be unhappy to learn that it includes a proposal that the business lobby pushed to remove from the Senate bill: a new government screening protocol for American investments in unfriendly nations like China. Gavin has more on the differences. KELLY GETS SINEMA'S BACK — Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) defended his fellow Democrat and delegation mate KYRSTEN SINEMA on Tuesday, saying he doesn't agree with his state party's move to censure her, the Arizona Republic reports . "While they came to different decisions on this vote, he looks forward to continuing to work with Senator Sinema on Arizona priorities," a Kelly campaign spox told the newspaper's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez. THE RULES CHANGES DEMS CAN USE — Senate Republicans' 2019 changes to chamber rules and norms around confirming nominees are now redounding to Democrats' benefit, helping the party confirm an unusually high number of Biden's judicial picks so far, reports Marianne LeVine. That includes a move to hasten the confirmation of most presidential nominees and the end of the "blue slip" tradition. "Senate Democrats' approach to judicial nominees under Biden carries a huge potential lesson for the filibuster battle: It underscores the likelihood that any rules change in the chamber will eventually be used by the party in power, regardless of that party's stance when out of power."
| | | | A message from The American Beverage Association:   Our plastic bottles are made to be remade. Help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org | | | ALL POLITICS AN INAUSPICIOUS START — MEHMET OZ's quest for the GOP nomination in the Pennsylvania Senate race is starting with a "code-red crisis," Holly Otterbein reports from Philadelphia. The celebrity physician has been "handily rejected by party activists" in his first forays into grassroots politicking, she writes: "The fact that Oz has stumbled out of the gate in this first test among GOP activists has exposed vulnerabilities in his past record and raised questions about whether rank-and-file voters will also turn their backs on him once they learn more about him." IF AT FIRST YOU DON'T SUCCEED — Holly also writes in with this news: NINA TURNER, a former co-chair for BERNIE SANDERS' presidential campaign, is announcing another run for Congress. Playbook got an exclusive look at her launch video , which features images of empty shelves and references to inflation. Last year, Turner lost the Democratic primary for a special election in Ohio's 11th District to now-Rep. SHONTEL BROWN. Turner had been openly eyeing another bid. Though a new redistricting map for the state hasn't yet been approved, Turner's team expects she'll face a rematch with Brown. CUELLAR'S FBI PROBE UPENDS HIS REELECT — In 2020, centrist Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (D-Texas) beat his former-intern-turned-progressive-challenger JESSICA CISNEROS by fewer than 3,000 votes. Now, the FBI raid on the congressman's home and campaign headquarters has upended the rematch between the two just 26 days before early voting commences. Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick have a good story up about a groundswell of money and momentum moving toward Cisneros, the 28-year-old attorney. Meanwhile, Cuellar released a video statement Tuesday announcing he intends to run for reelection, saying that he is "fully cooperating with law enforcement" and is confident the probe will show "no wrongdoing" on his part. ABC reports that the investigation is related to Azerbaijan. And The New Republic's Kate Aronoff dives deep into Cuellar's history with Azerbaijan, and how U.S. policy has intertwined with the development of Azerbaijani oil for years. ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST — Rep. JIM COOPER (D-Tenn.) announced he won't seek reelection, following the state's latest redistricting plan that would slice up his district. Cooper has held his seat in Congress since 2003. More from the Tennessean's Melissa Brown and Adam Friedman. He's the 29th Democrat to call it quits, the most since 1996, according to Open Secrets. JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH DEFINE THE TERM 'INSURRECTIONIST' — "A group of lawyers is working to disqualify Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN (R-N.C.) in his bid for reelection unless he can prove he is not an 'insurrectionist,' disqualified by the Constitution from holding office, in a case with implications for other officeholders and potentially Trump," NYT's Jonathan Weisman reports . "The novel challenge could set a precedent to challenge other Republicans who swore to uphold the Constitution, then encouraged the attack." POLICY CORNER EYES ON THE FAKE ELECTORS — Deputy A.G. LISA MONACO told CNN "federal prosecutors are reviewing fake Electoral College certifications that declared Trump the winner of states that he lost … Monaco did not go into detail about what else prosecutors are looking at from the partisan attempt to subvert the 2020 vote count. She said that, more broadly, the Justice Department was 'going to follow the facts and the law, wherever they lead, to address conduct of any kind and at any level that is part of an assault on our democracy.'" CNN's Evan Perez and Tierney Sneed have more details BEYOND THE BELTWAY ALL ABOUT ALEX — Former Holyoke, Mass., Mayor ALEX MORSE challenged Rep. RICHARD NEAL (D-Mass.) in a 2020 primary and lost by 18 points. Morse was damaged by unfounded allegations that he used his position as a guest lecturer at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst to make unwanted sexual advances on students. But losing the election may have been a good thing for Morse, The Boston Globe's Mark Shanahan writes. "For now at least, Morse is doing exactly what he wants to do. Last April, he was chosen from among 120 applicants to be the Provincetown town manager. Given his age (32) and obvious ambition (mayor was his first job out of college), many, including his new Select Board bosses in Provincetown, have wondered if Morse is merely biding his time before running for Congress again." MEDIAWATCH GRID'S ORIGIN STORY — Before Grid launched earlier this month, the digital news organization site worked with APCO Worldwide, a global consulting firm that "is best known for its crisis communications management and lobbying work on behalf of foreign governments, most notably the United Arab Emirates," Max Tani and Daniel Lippman report. While a spokesperson from the firm said it had "no continuing role" with Grid, Max and Daniel note that there are still links between the two: "Former CNN journalist JOHN DEFTERIOS, who has been based in the UAE for a decade, is a senior adviser at APCO and represents International Media Investments, a UAE-based investment fund, on Grid's board, of which he is one of five members."
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Eugene Goodman, the U.S. Capitol Police officer and hero of Jan. 6, spoke publicly for the first time since the attack. "It could have easily been a blood bath," he said on the podcast "3 Brothers No Sense." Hillary and Chelsea Clinton were seen catching up with Kim Kardashian over coffee in Los Angeles. According to People Mag , the meeting was connected to the Clintons' upcoming Apple TV+ docuseries. Nancy Pelosi announced she's running for Congress again, though few expect her to actually serve beyond this year. Joe Biden stopped by a small business Tuesday. The shop owner said Biden purchased a hoodie, got a card for Jill Biden and also grabbed a mug with his veep's face on it. Melania Trump is auctioning off a hat she wore on a trip to France, but it's off to a rough start thanks to the recent crypto crash. SPOTTED on Tuesday night at (another) going-away party for the British Embassy's James Hooley: Martin and Katherine O'Malley, Symone Sanders, Andrea Mitchell, Ed Luce, Greta Van Susteren, Steve Clemons, Helen Milby, Ned Price, Francesca Craig, Rufus Gifford, Sam Feist, Sean Spicer and British Ambassador Karen Pierce, who was seen dancing the Macarena. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Marc Lotter is now chief comms officer of America First Policy Institute. He most recently was SVP for marketing, comms and education for the Florida Hospital Association, and is a Trump 2020 campaign and White House alum. — Fritz Brogan is transitioning to an emeritus board role at Maverick PAC after more than five years as chair. Ben Proler and Robert Flock will be national co-chairs. TRANSITIONS — Cynthia Hogan is joining the NFL as a senior adviser to Commissioner Roger Goodell. She most recently was VP for public policy and government affairs for the Americas at Apple. … Adam Ambrogi is joining the League of Women Voters as senior director for voting and elections. He previously was director of the elections and voting program at the Democracy Fund. … Albert Fujii is now press secretary for the LGBTQ Victory Fund. He previously was a senior associate at Global Strategy Group. … … Colleen Kennedy is now manager of policy comms at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. She previously was comms director for Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.). … Rewiring America is bringing on a slate of new hires: Keishaa Austin will be head of engagement and partnerships, Cammie Croft will be chief of staff, Sarah Lazarovic will be head of comms and brand, Jamal Lewis will be director of policy partnerships and equitable electrification, Steve Pantano will be head of research, and Leah Stokes will be senior policy counsel. ENGAGED — Conor Hall, incoming director of Colorado's Office of Outdoor Recreation and Industry and a John Hickenlooper alum, and Harper Lodge-Real, who teaches fourth grade at Rocky Mountain Prep, recently got engaged on a boat off the Pacific coast of Mexico while whale watching. The couple met on their first day at Earlham College (Conor mistakenly thought Harper's name was Emily for the first five weeks of knowing each other). Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy … HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra … Rep. Albio Sires (D-N.J.) … POLITICO's Olivia Beavers … The Atlantic's Tim Alberta … Jim Papa of Global Strategy Group … Cristina Antelo of Ferox Strategies … Axios' Justin Green … Marisa Bellantonio … Kayla Gowdy of Olympic Media … Mala Parker of the International Foodservice Distributors Association … Thunder Road Group's Jim Jordan … NPR's Isabel Lara … Jessica Phan … Matt Miller of Rep. Ben Cline's (R-Va.) office … Cheri Jacobus … Layla Brooks of Rep. Nikema Williams' (D-Ga.) office … Brett Layson … Jen Hing … HHS' David Naimon … Lindsay Hayes … Daryn Kagan … Margie Omero … Christian Deschauer … Col. Robert O. Bailey … former Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton … Sheila Angelo … Bloomberg's Jarrod Bernstein Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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