BIDEN SOUNDS DIRE AT DEMOCRACY SUMMIT: Kicking off his much-anticipated virtual Summit for Democracy on Thursday morning, Biden warned scores of fellow world leaders that "we stand at an inflection point in history" — describing the preservation of democracy as "an urgent matter on all our parts" and "the defining challenge of our time." He also made some news, announcing a Presidential Initiative for Democratic Renewal that will direct more than $424 million in U.S. funding toward efforts aimed at "supporting free and independent media," "fighting corruption," "bolstering democratic reformers," "advancing technology for democracy," and "defending free and fair elections and political processes," per the White House. And just a couple of days after speaking with Putin, the American president had some harsh words for autocrats abroad. Those strongmen, Biden said, "seek to advance their own power, export and expand their influence around the world, and justify their repressive policies and practices as a more efficient way to address today's challenges. That's how it's sold by voices that seek to fan the flames of social division and political polarization." Read more from Quint here. BIDEN MOSTLY CONTINUING TRUMP'S NUKE POLICY? Biden appears set to raise the threshold on the use of nuclear weapons — but not all the way back after a lowering by former President DONALD TRUMP. The Financial Times' DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO reports that Biden took "no first use" off the table, but aides will soon present him with options for a "sole purpose" policy. "One variation of 'sole purpose' mentioned to allies would be to declare that the US would retain the option to use nuclear weapons to deter not just nuclear attacks but also non-nuclear 'existential threats,' which could include big attacks with conventional, chemical or biological weapons," he wrote. That echoes Trump's nuclear policy, which lowered the threshold on the use of nuclear weapons for incidents like a major cyberattack. But Biden is proposing the threshold rise above that, though it's unclear what exactly defines as an "existential threat." Biden has yet to make a final decision, U.S. officials and analysts say, and the review is expected to come out early next year. It's therefore possible that Biden will change course from what the report describes. BIDEN'S SELECTIVE SANCTIONS: The Biden administration has been unveiling batches of sanctions throughout this week as it promotes the Summit for Democracy. Today, in addition to unveiling new sanctions and visa bans, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said his department will name a "coordinator on global anti-corruption" — an idea that's been in the works in some form for months, as our own NAHAL TOOSI reported in March. The economic sanctions for the most part target individuals under the Global Magnitsky Act. Toosi points out that, like the Trump administration, Biden aides are being selective about whom they target. They tend to go after people in countries that are not all that vital to U.S. interests. In other words, easy targets, like people in Angola, Nicaragua or South Sudan. With that as the general rule, you would think Equatorial Guinea's vice president would make the list. TEODORO NGUEMA OBIANG MANGUE, who also is the son of the country's dictator, is so infamous… honestly, there isn't enough space here. But, as just one example, the U.S. sued him over his alleged illicit proceeds in a case involving MICHAEL JACKSON memorabilia. But we also recently learned that China is thinking of opening a military base in Equatorial Guinea. That has so worried the Biden administration that it sent principal deputy national security adviser JON FINER to sweet-talk the country's leaders to reject China's plan. Finer and his delegation gave their hosts a gift of — yes, this happened — a silver platter. Presumably, it held a promise of no sanctions anytime soon. PAST FOES HAUNT BIDEN'S FORPOL: Even as Biden aims to shift American foreign policy to handle future threats, adversaries from yesteryear have put those plans on holds, our own JONATHAN LEMIRE observes. "[T]he administration has had to contend with the world it inherited, a challenge underscored this week when it was forced to address saber-rattling by a longtime foe, Vladimir Putin. Putin's emboldened aggression prompted Biden to stage a virtual meeting with his Russian counterpart in an effort to de-escalate the growing tensions at the Ukraine border," he wrote. Lemire continued that the withdrawal from Afghanistan "created harrowing images of violence and fear that shook the faith of allies and Americans alike in the administration's competence. Efforts to restart the Iran nuclear deal, scuttled by Biden's predecessor, are on the verge of collapse. And the emergence of a new Covid-19 variant that quickly raced around the globe underscored that the pandemic was as much of a national security crisis as a health one, restarting loud cries for the U.S. to step to the forefront in the effort to vaccinate the world." NatSec Daily is old enough to remember how former President BARACK OBAMA's "pivot to Asia" never panned out, or how intervention skeptic GEORGE W. BUSH launched the Iraq War and global war on terror in response to the 9/11 attacks. "You sometimes get to shape your agenda," Council on Foreign Relations President RICHARD HAASS told Lemire, "but sometimes others get to shape it." U.S. MOVES TO REINFORCE SANCTIONS ON IRAN: As talks to return the United States into the Iran nuclear deal sputter, the Biden administration has opted to tighten its enforcement of sanctions on Tehran. Next week, U.S. officials will travel to the United Arab Emirates — Iran's second-highest trading partner — to "meet with petrochemicals companies and other private firms and banks," The Wall Street Journal's LAURENCE NORMAN reported. They will warn that the U.S. has "visibility on transactions that are not compliant with sanctions," a senior official told him. "Those banks and firms face extreme risk if this continues." If they don't comply, it's possible the U.S. will sanction those entities. It's another indicator of just how poorly the nuclear talks in Vienna are going. U.S. officials and analysts we've talked to remain pessimistic that there will be a positive outcome — meaning a move to a Plan B might soon be in the works. Per Reuters' PHIL STEWART on Thursday, the U.S. and Israeli defense chiefs planned to discuss military exercises centering around destroying Iran's nuclear facilities, should such a mission be required. THE 100TH NATSEC DAILY! Hey, it's our 100th edition. Thanks for being a friend and hanging out with us for so long. We received some lovely feedback last night and hope to keep hearing about how we fit into your day. Never hesitate to reach out and let us know what more we should be doing. In the meantime, your host would like to thank Quint for his tireless efforts, fantastic demeanor and excellent reporting; our amazing producers KAITLYN LOCKE and SETOTA HAILEMARIAM for making the newsletter look good and keeping us from making silly errors; and our editors BEN PAUKER and JOHN YEARWOOD for their guidance and trust (and their edits). It takes a village, and we love ours. IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @AndrewDesiderio. |
No comments:
Post a Comment