| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
Kurt Campbell listens to a question from a journalist in Tokyo, Thursday, Jan. 17, 2013. | Shizuo Kambayashi/AP Photo | With help from Andrew Desiderio Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — KURT CAMPBELL, the National Security Council's coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, has held a monthly meeting with ambassadors from Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries in the U.S. — a gathering that didn't take place during the last two administrations, multiple people told NatSec Daily. A senior administration official confirmed the sessions, co-hosted by the State Department, saying it's "part of our efforts to elevate our engagement to new levels and to deepen our cooperation." "We have also brought in a number of other senior Administration officials to those meetings from other departments and agencies at times. The Biden-Harris Administration views ASEAN as essential to the architecture of the Indo-Pacific and we are committed to ASEAN centrality. We look forward to strengthening our close partnership in the months and years ahead," the official continued. BEN RHODES, a former top foreign policy adviser to then-President BARACK OBAMA, told us that that administration had similar sessions to the ASEAN meetings, but noted they weren't monthly. "We also sent Obama to the ASEAN summit every year," he said. In October, President JOE BIDEN joined the annual U.S.-ASEAN summit in which he said "[o]ur continued cooperation is only growing more important." And during an event with Australia's Lowy Institute on Dec. 1, Campbell stated "we believe that 2022, one of our most important, if not our most important initiatives here in the White House, is to do everything possible to upgrade all of our engagement with ASEAN. And you're going to see it across the board." In the monthly sessions and larger forums, the U.S. and ASEAN discuss issues like health, climate change, energy, transportation, gender empowerment, economic growth and more. But a major reason for these conversations is to shore up America's partnership with countries right in China's neighborhood, experts say. "Southeast Asian governments lamented the Trump administration's general disinterest. The Biden NSC's efforts to engage the region's ambassadors is therefore hugely important, as it signals a serious commitment to ASEAN members, as do various Cabinet members visits to the region," said CHARLES DUNST, a fellow in the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Efforts like this will go a long way towards convincing Southeast Asia that the US cares and will remain focused on the region." ASEAN member states include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The ambassador from Myanmar, who's served in that role since 2016, continues to join the monthly meetings even after the coup. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin's LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn More | | | | | | SUMMIT FOR DEMOCRACY GETS MIXED REVIEWS: Experts NatSec Daily talked to differed on how to measure the just-concluded Summit for Democracy's success. "The Summit for Democracy exceeded expectations reassuring our democratic allies and sending a needed message to our adversaries," said DAMON WILSON, president and CEO of the National Endowment for Democracy. "The administration showed up with new ideas, new resources and new energy. The summit forced a global strategy session of sorts in which leaders, activists and journalists could challenge each other, learn from each other, all in an effort to raise our collective game." FRANCES BROWN of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace isn't as convinced. "I don't think we'll know whether the summit was a success, even just on its own terms, for some time. The Biden administration's theory of success for the summit is that the event will galvanize energy towards renewing democracy, both globally and at home, and spur participants to make concrete commitments on how they will advance that goal," she told us. "But it will be only over the coming year — the so-called 'year of action' — that we will see whether participants make tangible progress toward meeting those commitments." They both make fair points. To bolster Wilson's case, the U.S. made investments in local media and sanctioned human rights abusers, among other moves. But in Brown's defense, it's way too early to know if the other governments will follow the Biden administration's lead and push for their own pro-democratic reforms. If NatSec Daily can weigh in, we feel that the summit at least elevated the issue of democracy worldwide. It got China and Russia to preposterously defend themselves as democracies, underscoring the power of the idea. But what remains to be seen is if the U.S. will prove doubters wrong and focus on democratic concerns at home, too. IRANIAN OFFICIALS SAY ECONOMY CAN WITHSTAND SANCTIONS: The Iranian government says its economy can survive even more economic pressure should talks over America's return to the 2015 nuclear deal fail. But The Wall Street Journal's SUNE ENGEL RASMUSSEN reports that Tehran's confidence might be misplaced. "Its GDP per capita halved from when the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions to last year, according to the World Bank. Inflation has risen. Iran's currency, the rial, dropped sharply since last week in reaction to a deadlock in the nuclear talks, trading around an all-time low level. The World Bank expects Iran's public debt to surpass 50% of GDP this year," he wrote. "Iranians have taken to the streets repeatedly in recent months, demanding better living conditions and building pressure on [the] government to strike a deal that would free up billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets abroad and open its banking system to international trade," he continued. Still, the regime is pressing forward with its economic plans. "The government's budget chief has said he is designing the budget for the next Iranian year based on an assumption that sanctions won't be lifted," Rasmussen reported. NICARAGUA DROPS TAIWAN, RECOGNIZES CHINA: Nicaragua opted Thursday night to end its formal relationship with Taiwan and recognize China as the one true government, continuing the decline in nations willing to stand by Taipei openly. "The Government of Nicaragua declares that it recognizes that in the world there is only one single China," reads a memo from DENIS MONCADA COLINDRES, Nicaragua's foreign minister. "The People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government that represents all of China and Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory." "The Government of the Republic of Nicaragua today break diplomatic relations with Taiwan and ceases to have any contact or official relationship," it continued. Now Taiwan only has 13 nations that recognize it formally, down from 21 at the start of 2017. That year, in fact, Taiwan's President TSAI ING-WEN visited Nicaragua and welcomed statements by her counterpart DANIEL ORTEGA that his country would build global support for her island democracy. In a tweet Friday morning, Tsai wrote, "I would like to stress that no amount of external pressure can shake our commitment to freedom, human rights, the rule of law & to partnering with the international democratic community as a force for good." "Within minutes of Nicaragua's announcement, Chinese state media reported that a delegation of Nicaraguan officials were in Tianjin, the port city where China has been holding diplomatic meetings during the coronavirus pandemic. Their presence indicated coordination between the two nations over the timing of the decision," The New York Times' STEVEN LEE MYERS reported. Nicaragua is the first country to switch allegiances since Kiribati and the Solomon Islands in 2019. KOREAS DISCUSSING END OF WAR: An unnamed Blue House official said that Seoul was discussing the possibility of an end of war declaration with Pyongyang, per KANG TAE-HWA and SARAH KIM of the Korea JoongAng Daily. "South Korea and the United States are in the final stage of coordination over the text for an end-of-war declaration, but it is not completed and still in progress," the official told them. "During the coordination process between South Korea and the United States over the declaration's text, we have continued to communicate with North Korea." That's the first time the South Korean government admitted speaking to its northern neighbor about formally bringing the Korean War of the 1950s to a close. Some experts say such a declaration, which would require all four parties in the conflict to agree — the U.S., the two Koreas and China — could rekindle trust and reopen deep talks about Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal. Critics contend it's a meaningless giveaway that will do very little to solve the ultimate problem. To date, there's still no indication that the U.S. and North Korea have spoken since Biden took office, or that Biden would agree to an end of war declaration before KIM JONG UN parted with at least some of his nukes. | | | |   | | | ASSANGE INCHES CLOSER TO U.S. EXTRADITION: The High Court in London has directed a lower court judge to send the United States' request to extradite JULIAN ASSANGE to the British interior minister for review — accepting the U.S. government's arguments that the WikiLeaks founder will be treated humanely by America's criminal justice system, reports The Associated Press' DANICA KIRKA and JILL LAWLESS. "There is no reason why this court should not accept the assurances as meaning what they say," the High Court stated in its ruling Friday. "There is no basis for assuming that the USA has not given the assurances in good faith." The High Court ruling overturns a lower court judge's decision in January that Assange should not be extradited to the United States, citing the 50-year-old Australian citizen's mental health and concerns that he would likely kill himself in U.S. prison. Assange is currently being held at London's high-security Belmarsh Prison. Per Kirka and Lawless, the United States "has indicted Assange on 17 espionage charges and one charge of computer misuse over WikiLeaks' publication of thousands of leaked military and diplomatic documents. The charges carry a maximum sentence of 175 years in prison, although [U.S. government lawyer James] Lewis said 'the longest sentence ever imposed for this offense is 63 months.'" DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington's national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.), the House Armed Services Committee member who has led the progressive charge against America's involvement in the Saudi-led war in Yemen. When he's not joining in bipartisan legislation to curtail a president's war power, Khanna told us he enjoys sipping on a scotch and soda. He doesn't have a favorite spot for the drink, but did say he'll "go to Sonoma Wine Bar … given proximity for that or a glass of red wine." Red wine at a place called "Sonoma" — he must be a Californian. Cheers, Congressman! IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
| | | CENTCOM: AL QAEDA GROWING 'SLIGHTLY' IN AFGHANISTAN: Gen. FRANK MCKENZIE, the U.S. Central Command chief, told The Associated Press' ROBERT BURNS and LOLITA C. BALDOR that al Qaeda's numbers have ticked up "slightly" in Afghanistan since America's military withdrawal in August. Making matters worse is that the U.S. has drastically lost its ability to track that group and others in the country. "We're probably at about 1 or 2 percent of the capabilities we once had to look into Afghanistan," he said, adding it's "very hard, not impossible" to stop AQ or ISIS from threatening the U.S. The general also noted how no one knows if the Taliban will thwart the rise of terrorist groups in Afghanistan. He fears the worst: "[C]ertainly we should expect a resurgent ISIS. It would be very surprising if that weren't the case … It remains to be seen that the Taliban are going to be able to take effective action against them." ANGER AT U.K. NATIONALITY AND BORDERS BILL: The U.K.'s controversial "Nationality and Borders" bill has passed the House of Commons, igniting outrage that the measure could strip citizenship from innocent ethnic minorities. Proposed by Home Secretary PRITI PATEL , the bill has a clause that "exempts the government from giving notice of a decision to deprive a person of citizenship if authorities do not have the subject's contact details or if it is not 'reasonably practical' to do so," per an explainer by Al Jazeera. "The clause states that notice would also not be given if such a move is 'in the public interest.'" Those who lost their citizenship could appeal the decision, however. The precedent for this move came when the U.K. ended the citizenship of SHAMIMA BEGUN in 2019 because of her connections to ISIS. The U.K. has long been allowed to end someone's citizenship status, but never without their knowledge. The bill has ethnic minorities in Britain fuming. "I, along with my entire family and a shit-ton of my friends from ethnic minority backgrounds, were made second-class citizens in the UK as a result of the Nationality and Borders Bill. 6 million of us can now be stripped of our nationality without being told about it," tweeted HIND HASSAN, a reporter for Vice News in the U.K. "Someone once joked that I was less British than them because of my heritage. They were right." "Collaboration among all groups [is the] only and best option. Muslims, Sikhs, Jews and more have come together in the last few days to oppose this bill. The opposition will only grow as it approaches its next trading in the House of Lords," activist SAMANTHA ASUMADU told Al Jazeera. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn More | | | | | | NEW WH POLICY ON CYBERATTACKS: A new White House policy gives the FBI and other federal agencies a shortened timeline to decide if a cyberattack "rises to the level of a national security concern" — in some cases giving the departments only 24 hours, per CNN's SEAN LYNGAAS. "The goal is to more quickly determine whether a ransomware attack, for example, might affect multiple sectors of the economy — and if the government may need to mobilize backup supplies of commodities, as it prepared to do after a ransomware attack on a US pipeline operator in May," he wrote. "While the policy would apply to significant hacks of US critical infrastructure from any part of the world, it could inform US assessments of whether the Russian government's tolerance of cybercriminals crosses a red line with the White House, a US official familiar with the policy told CNN." The overarching consideration of the assessment, a second official said, is: "Is this something that the national security adviser needs to call the president about?" The administration has elevated the issues of cyberattacks and ransomware as major national security problems, especially regarding America's relationship with Russia. The new policy underscores the administration's emphasis on tackling cyber concerns and their centrality to Biden's national security work.
| | | LOCKHEED WINS FINNISH WARPLANE COMPETITION: Finland awarded Lockheed Martin one of the largest air armament acquisition deals in European history, agreeing to purchase 64 F-35A Block 4 multirole fighters to replace its aging F/A-18 Hornet fleet. "In the HX Fighter Programme evaluation of the tenderers' offers, the F-35 fulfilled the security of supply, industrial participation and affordability requirements of the decision-making areas. In the military capability assessment, the F-35 comprehensive system was the best. The F-35 combat, reconnaissance and survival capabilities were the best suited of the HX candidates," the Finnish Air Force said in a statement. Lockheed beat out Boeing and three European bids for the roughly $12 billion contract, pleasing U.S. lawmakers who will see jobs coming to their district. In recent months, they urged the White House to take the competition seriously after concerns Finland might choose a European design. MIKKO HAUTALA , Finland's ambassador to the U.S., told NatSec Daily his country had a tough decision to make. "All of the planes were good. We were really in a good, luxurious position," he said, adding that the "differentiating factor" was that the F-35 "had the best capabilities and fulfilled the needs we had." Finland's five-party government voted unanimously for the plane, he said. The next phase is the procurement agreement, followed by training in 2025, Hautala continued. Then the first plane is expected to arrive in Finland in 2026, with the whole fleet fully in place by 2030.
| | | SCHUMER SQUEEZED ON NOMINEES: Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER 's year-end to-do list is long enough to make anyone's head spin. Democrats want him to do even more. Growing increasingly restless over the GOP's blockade of diplomatic nominations, they want Schumer to make good on his vow to stay in session for late nights and weekends in order to plow through the dozens of nominees largely held up by Sens. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) and JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.). "I would have liked them [on the floor] a long time ago," Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) told our own ANDREW DESIDERIO . "The mere fact that we're talking about having nominees on the floor tells you what's wrong. These people would pass by voice. And it's only because Republicans are holding them up." Menendez went a step further: "They have to bear the burden," he said of Republicans. "Something will happen in the world, and they'll regret holding up an ambassador." The glacial pace of foreign policy nominations in the Senate this year has been striking. The chamber has confirmed just nine foreign ambassadors and just one-third of all national security positions that have been nominated. At this point under former President DONALD TRUMP, the Senate had confirmed 40 ambassadors and two-thirds of all national security positions. Hawley and Cruz are showing no signs of letting up, noting that the Senate has used floor time for other nominations recently for the Justice Department, National Mediation Board and FCC. "If these were such pressing priorities," Hawley said, "why wasn't Schumer voting on these a week ago or two weeks ago or five weeks ago? Because he's incompetent, that's why." LAWMAKERS WEARING GREEN RIBBONS FOR LEFT-BEHIND AFGHANS: A small group of Democrats and Republicans in both chambers will wear green ribbons to remember the Americans, at-risk Afghans and lawful permanent residents stranded in Afghanistan. The ribbons are so "we can't forget," Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), a House Armed Services Committee member wearing the ribbon, texted NatSec Daily. "The cause has been near and dear to me since our bungled retreat and knowing how we failed the interpreters." He added: "It was a team effort to determine the color." "I am honored to wear a green ribbon as a symbol of my promise to continue this work until it is done. Our abandoning this mission would forever stain our nation's honor," Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) said in a statement. Other lawmakers who have committed to this effort include Sens. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) and TIM KAINE (D-Va.), as well as Reps. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) and SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.). Honor Our Commitment, the nonprofit behind the ribbons and spearheaded by SIDNEY GOODFRIEND, "will ask Americans nationwide to display or wear green ribbons in support of those in Afghanistan and to continue the display until those in danger are safely out of that country," per a statement. | | | | JOIN TUESDAY FOR A WOMEN RULE 2021 REWIND AND A LOOK AHEAD AT 2022: Congress is sprinting to get through a lengthy and challenging legislative to-do list before the end of the year that has major implications for women's rights. Join Women Rule editor Elizabeth Ralph and POLITICO journalists Laura Barrón-López, Eleanor Mueller, Elena Schneider and Elana Schor for a virtual roundtable that will explore the biggest legislative and policy shifts in 2021 affecting women and what lies ahead in 2022. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | FIGHTING WORDS AS AFGHANISTAN FALLS: An immersive new account from the New Yorker's STEVE COLL and ADAM ENTOUS chronicles the political pressures, the power struggles and — most fascinatingly — the interpersonal dynamics that punctuated the multiyear effort to withdraw U.S. military forces from Afghanistan. Here are just a few of the best barbs hurled by the story's most prominent players. — RYAN CROCKER on ZALMAY KHALILZAD : "No shortage of talking, but a lot of difficulty in figuring out exactly what he's talking about and why." — DONALD TRUMP on Khalilzad (per JOHN BOLTON): "I hear he's a con man, although you need a con man for this." — An anonymous Pentagon official on Khalilzad: "He called it improvisational. … To the rest of us, it seemed more like chaos." — JAMES CUNNINGHAM on ASHRAF GHANI: "He's just not a good politician." — YASIN ZIA on Ghani: "He would become emotional and start shouting. … In a war, this type of behavior will not help you." — Trump on Ghani: "He's a crook." TRUMP: 'F---' BIBI: Trump no longer considers then-Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU his close personal friend after the now-opposition leader congratulated Biden on winning the 2020 election. "I haven't spoken to him since," Trump told Axios' BARAK RAVID in a new book. "F--- him." "The first person that congratulated [Biden] was Bibi Netanyahu, the man that I did more for than any other person I dealt with. ... Bibi could have stayed quiet. He has made a terrible mistake," Trump said, even though Netanyahu wasn't the first world leader to praise the incoming president. But there was more going on, too, Ravid notes: "[B]y the end of his presidency, Trump had concluded that Netanyahu didn't really want peace with the Palestinians and was using him on Iran. Trump also felt he'd helped ensure Netanyahu's political survival, but didn't get the same in return." "I liked Bibi. I still like Bibi. But I also like loyalty," Trump said.
| | | — CATHERINE RUSSELL has been appointed the next executive director of UNICEF by United Nations Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES. Russell, who will succeed HENRIETTA FORE in the role, currently serves as assistant to the president and director of the White House Office of Presidential Personnel. She has previously served as ambassador-at-large for global women's issues at the State Department. — Charles Dunst, who we quoted in our top story, is joining the Asia Group on Monday where he'll help lead the research and analytics practice under former U.S. ambassador for APEC KURT TONG . He'll leave his post at the Eurasia Group but keep his affiliation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
| | | — DMYTRO KULEBA, Foreign Affairs: "Don't Sell Out Ukraine" — J. WESTON PHIPPEN, POLITICO Magazine: " 'A $10-Million Scarecrow': The Quest for the Perfect 'Smart Wall'" — DANIELLE PAQUETTE, The Washington Post: "She could have been Benin's first female president. Now she faces 20 years in prison."
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 9:30 a.m.: "The Transformative Potential of Crypto and Blockchain for Pakistan — with SALAHUDDIN KHAWAJA, ALI FARID KHWAJA, KALSOOM LAKHANI and OMER SULEMAN" — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: "Sharing the Air: EU and US Efforts to Integrate Commercial Drones into Civilian Airspace — with JANUSZ JANISZEWSKI, MARIA ALGAR RUIZ, SABRINA SAUNDERS-HODGE, GRAHAM WARWICK and RICHARD WHITTLE" — The Association of the United States Army, 11:50 a.m.: "The AUSA Noon Report — with DANIEL DAILEY and ANDREW J. LOMBARDO" — The Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: "#GermanyVotes — The New German Government's Priorities: What's Next in Berlin? — with TYSON BARKER, RACHEL RIZZO and CONSTANZE STELZENMÜLLER" — The Brookings Institution, 12 p.m.: "The Promises and Risks of Artificial Intelligence: A Conversation With DARON ACEMOGLU — with ANTON KORINEK" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: "A Conversation with The Honorable MICHAEL VICKERS on Modernizing Intelligence for the Gray Zone — with JAKE HARRINGTON" — Defense One, 2 p.m.: "The Road Ahead for Defense Clouds — with LES BENITO, PATRICK TUCKER, DON ZIMMERMAN, LLOYD GRANVILLE and INDIRA RICE DONEGAN" — The Wilson Center, 2 p.m.: "Fighting Extremism in Pakistan — Local Actions, Local Voices — with QAISAR ABBAS, MICHAEL KUGELMAN, AFTAB SIDDIQUI and ANITA WEISS" — The Atlantic Council, 4 p.m.: "Securing the Energy and Critical Infrastructure Sectors From Cyberattacks — with ANDY BOCHMAN, ANDREA BRACKETT, JEH JOHNSON, MEGAN SAMFORD, LEO SIMONOVICH and TOM WARRICK" — The Wilson Center, 4 p.m.: " Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union — with ERIC ARNESEN, DINA FAINBERG, CHRISTIAN F. OSTERMANN, WILLIAM TAUBMAN and VLADISLAV ZUBOK" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who likes to hide that he communicates with us regularly. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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