Friday, December 3, 2021

A blow to the 'directed-energy' Havana Syndrome case

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Dec 03, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO's National Security Daily newsletter logo

By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey

Presented by Lockheed Martin

Sens. Jim Risch, Jeanne Shaheen and Bob Menendez confer before a hearing.

From left, Sens. Jim Risch, Jeanne Shaheen and Bob Menendez confer before a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, March 11, 2020. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

With help from Andrew Desiderio and Phelim Kine

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It's not often that a paragraph stops your host in his tracks (and leads me to Slack colleagues about it), but this one from The New York Times' JULIAN BARNES and ADAM GOLDMAN sure did.

Writing about the CIA and broader administration's effort to uncover who and/or what is behind so-called Havana Syndrome attacks, they report "[i]ntelligence officials have not found any hard evidence that points to a cause. There are no intelligence intercepts implicating an adversarial spy service. No one has detected microwaves, other readings of energy pulses or any other weapons that could be to blame."

That's surprising, not only because U.S. officials have told POLITICO and others that directed-energy attacks are surely the culprit — with some claiming Russia is behind them — but also because lawmakers openly state that that's the answer.

But it's hard to reconcile the NYT's reporting and remarks by members of Congress that directed energy explains why hundreds of diplomats have suffered headaches, nausea, brain damage and other illnesses. Either the IC assessed that's the reason and told lawmakers about it, or lawmakers reached this conclusion based on whatever they're being briefed on. Even if directed-energy attacks are the leading theory in the government's review, as they seem to be, that's still a far cry from a final determination.

Our own ANDREW DESIDERIO, who is on top of this coverage for POLITICO, reports that the Senate Intelligence Committee's briefings on Havana Syndrome are mostly led by the CIA, which, as part of the government-wide task force, set up a team of neurologists with access to classified information about the anomalous health incidents. To date, that group assesses microwave frequencies are likely the only thing that could have caused the observed brain damage of U.S. personnel, multiple lawmakers told him. However, there doesn't appear to be any human or signals-intelligence indicating that, at least not yet.

A CIA spokesperson said Director BILL BURNS "made it a top priority to ensure officers get the care they need and that we get to the bottom of this. We've strengthened efforts to determine the origins of these incidents, including assembling a targeting team of our very best experts—bringing an intensity and expertise to this issue akin to our efforts to find Bin Laden."

Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) is one of the lawmakers, along with the top two officials of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who openly say directed-energy attacks explain the symptoms. We texted her spokesperson, SARAH WEINSTEN, about the NYT's piece.

"Clearly people have been severely injured and need help," she replied. "The National Academy of Sciences report indicated these injuries were very likely caused by a direct energy source — who or what remains to be seen, but Senator Shaheen believes every effort should be used by the U.S. government to get to the bottom of it."

 

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The Inbox

STATE DEPT. PHONES HACKED USING NSO SPYWARE: At least nine State Department employees have their phones hacked with spyware made by Israel's NSO Group, Reuters' CHRISTOPHER BING and JOSEPH MENN report.

"The hacks, which took place in the last several months, hit U.S. officials either based in Uganda or focused on matters concerning the East African country, two of the sources said," they wrote, noting it remains unclear who the hacker was. Still, the hacks "represent the widest known hacks of U.S. officials through NSO technology."

"If our investigation shall show these actions indeed happened with NSO's tools, such customer will be terminated permanently and legal actions will take place," an NSO spokesperson told Reuters, adding that NSO will also "cooperate with any relevant government authority and present the full information we will have."

It's yet another really bad look for the Israeli firm, after its spying software was found on the phones of human rights activists, journalists and Palestinians critical of Jerusalem's policies. The Biden administration placed sanctions on the company, a move that's become a flashpoint between the U.S. and Israel.

U.S. AND ROK TO UPDATE DPRK WAR PLANS: The civilian defense chiefs of the U.S. and South Korea announced Thursday that their nations have updated plans for a war with North Korea.

"There have been changes to the threats that we face, as well as changes to our military organization," South Korean Defense Minister SUH WOOK said during a joint press conference, "as well as changes in the combined defense structure."

Suh and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN met in Seoul for an annual security meeting. What remains unclear is if the U.S. and South Korea will restart the physical military exercises North Korea hates, or if they'll stick to the virtual drills to keep tensions with Pyongyang down.

WASHINGTON AND MOSCOW MAKE EMBASSY DEAL: The U.S. and Russia quietly struck a deal that should keep the American mission in Moscow from effectively shuttering.

"The agreement — which still needs to be finalized — comes after years of diplomatic tit-for-tat retaliations that have left the embassy badly understaffed, down from 1,200 personnel five years ago to just 120 now," The Washington Post's ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN and JOHN HUDSON reported. "It would also allow for an end to the U.S. mission's current 'authorized departure' status, a type of voluntary evacuation for the family members of diplomats in Russia and non-emergency direct-hire employees."

The framework came together on Nov. 17 during a meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Vienna.

That move seems unlikely to lessen tensions between Washington and Moscow. The Kremlin just this week ordered some American diplomats to leave Russia by Jan. 31 , and there's that little matter of nearly 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border. On Wednesday, Blinken warned Russia of "severe consequences" if those forces were used in an invasion.

MEET AUSTRIA'S NEW CHANCELLOR: Austria is set to name Interior Minister KARL NEHAMMER as its new chancellor following a dramatic series of resignations from the country's leading center-right party.

"It is a privilege for me to be allowed to lead this new People's Party now," he told reporters Friday in Vienna, per our own LAURENZ GEHRKE.

"Nehammer's announcement came one day after former Chancellor SEBASTIAN KURZ announced that he was quitting politics to spend more time with his newborn son, followed hours later by Kurz's successor as chancellor, [ALEXANDER] SCHALLENBERG, saying he was leaving office," Gehrke wrote.

Schallenberg — who only became chancellor in October following Kurz's resignation due to an ongoing corruption scandal — said he thought it would be important for the offices of head of government and party leader to be reunited in the hands of one politician again, a desire that will be fulfilled with Nehammer taking both roles.

"I have great respect for the decision of Sebastian Kurz who cleared the way for me as the new leader of the People's Party," Nehammer said, adding that Kurz achieved "incredibly much" during his time in office. He also announced that Schallenberg would become foreign minister again under his leadership, a role he held before he became chancellor.

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U.S. AND EU RIP CHINA'S 'PROBLEMATIC' ACTIONS AT SEA: Top diplomats from the U.S. and EU Thursday said they were concerned about China's "problematic and unilateral actions" in international waters.

"They expressed strong concern over China's problematic and unilateral actions in the South and East China Seas and the Taiwan Strait that undermine peace and security in the region and have a direct impact on the security and prosperity of both the United States and European Union. They further reaffirmed the importance of upholding and promoting freedom of navigation and overflight in accordance with international law as reflected in the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention," a joint statement reads.

The missive came after a meeting between Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN and European External Action Service Secretary General STEFANO SANNINO, in which they also vowed to work together to manage "competition and systemic rivalry" with China.

Sherman is in a bit of hot water herself after an op-ed by JOSH ROGIN in The Washington Post claims she told Sen. JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.) that the administration wants a more targeted approach to banning goods produced by forced labor in China. "She also told Merkley that getting allied buy-in was critical and more effective than unilateral action," Rogin wrote. That comment reportedly reflects that Biden's team isn't fully behind legislative efforts to enact blanket bans on products originating in Xinjiang, China — though a State Department spokesperson told Rogin the agency "is not opposing this amendment."

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington's national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we're featuring Sen. KEVIN CRAMER (R-S.D.), a member of the Senate Armed Services and Veterans' Affairs committees. He makes NatSec Daily history today by being the first "Drinks" subject to say his favorite drink isn't an alcoholic one, but a caffeinated one.

Cramer answered his favorite drink is a grande dark roast black from Starbucks, which he prefers to sip on his patio with his wife. "It's where I'm happiest," he told us. Cheers, Senator!

#WERUNNATSEC 5K: Reminder that NatSec Daily's first-ever 5K is tomorrow, Saturday, Dec. 4. When most convenient for you, go out and run (at least) 3.11 miles, then share your photos using #WeRunNatSec on Twitter. We'll "see" you out there!

IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.

While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @AndrewDesiderio.

And make sure to follow Politico's crack defense team at the Reagan National Defense Forum this weekend, where Pros will get all the breaking news as it comes.

Flashpoints

IRAN DEAL TALKS STALL: America's reentry into the Iran nuclear deal it left in 2018 is looking less and less likely, with the latest diplomatic round of talks in Vienna failing to produce any progress.

"Western diplomats said Friday the week of talks had done nothing to persuade them that Iran will make the compromises they say are necessary to restore the 2015 deal, which placed strict but temporary restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting most international sanctions," The Wall Street Journal's LAURENCE NORMAN reported. Discussion will resume next week, though, after representatives go back to their capitals for consultations.

The Biden administration vowed to get the U.S. back into the accord, but a prerequisite is that Iran stop inching closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon. "What Iran can't do is sustain the status quo of building their nuclear program while dragging their feet on talks. That will not happen. That's also not our view alone. It's very clearly the view of our European partners," SecState Blinken said Thursday.

NEW FIGHTING IN ETHIOPIA DISPLACES THOUSANDS: A fight between two northern Ethiopian regions has grown worse, forcing thousands to flee their homes.

"About 21,000 displaced people arrived at camps since Nov. 22 as fighters from federal government-aligned Amhara raided parts of western Tigray they claim belong to them, according to people with knowledge of the matter," Bloomberg News' SIMON MARKS reported. "That number may more than double in weeks, the people said, asking not to be identified because they're not authorized to publicly discuss the events."

The battle is an offshoot of the ongoing war between the Ethiopian government and anti-government rebels. Meanwhile, the U.S. government continues to urge Americans to leave the country while they can and has allowed some U.S. staffers at the Embassy in Addis Ababa to leave.

 

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Keystrokes

EU RAMPS UP CYBER REPORTING REQUIREMENTS: European Union countries have agreed in a new bill to strengthen cybersecurity requirements across several critical sectors — including hospitals, banks, energy grids, transport systems, telecoms networks and cloud, and some public administration systems, per POLITICO's LAURENS CERULUS.

The draft Cybersecurity Directive (NIS2) also would fine those sectors if they do not report incidents to authorities and conduct cybersecurity audits. But according to Cerulus, the bill is still a "watered down" version of a cybersecurity measure the EU executive proposed a year ago.

"Fines were brought down to a maximum of at least €4 million or 2 percent of annual turnover (instead of €10 million or 2 percent)," he writes, "and parliaments, courts, law enforcement agencies, embassies and central banks were exempted from the rules." Additionally, the implementation deadline was "extended to 24 months after adoption from 18 months."

The Complex

TOP NATIONAL GUARD OFFICER GETS COVID: Gen. DAN HOKANSON, chief of the National Guard Bureau, tested positive for Covid-19 this week and is now isolating while working remotely, Quint reports.

Hokanson is the National Guard's highest-ranking officer and a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The news of his positive test comes amid increasing tensions between components of the National Guard and senior Pentagon leadership over the Defense Department's vaccine mandate.

On Tuesday, The Associated Press reported that Austin had decided that National Guard members who refuse vaccination will be barred from federally funded drills and training required to maintain their Guard status.

MILLEY TELLS MOSCOW NOT TO MISJUDGE U.S.: Gen. MARK MILLEY had a stern warning for America's adversaries during his flight from Seoul back to Washington, telling the Financial Times' DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO that rival nations should not underestimate the United States' resolve in the wake of the military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

"It would be a mistake for any country to draw a broad strategic conclusion based on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and then take that event and automatically apply it to other situations," the Joint Chiefs chair said, adding: "The United States is a difficult country for other countries to understand sometimes."

Discussing the ongoing tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border, Milley also suggested Moscow's actions appear to be more serious than past military buildups: "Last time, it turned out to be a series of exercises. One of the most noticeable differences between now and April is the rhetoric ... The public rhetoric coming out of Russia seems to be a little bit more strident than it was before."

Milley's remarks follow some other tough rhetoric over recent days from top U.S. officials; Blinken warned Wednesday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would result in "severe" repercussions.

On the Hill

BIPARTISAN RESOLUTION BLASTS IOC OVER PENG: Reps. JENNIFER WEXTON (D-Va.) and MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) today introduced a bipartisan resolution t o condemn the International Olympic Committee "for collaborating with Chinese government officials to cover up three-time Olympian PENG SHUAI's allegations of sexual assault against a former senior government official and disappearance from public life," per a news release.

"Wexton and Waltz are urging the IOC to call on the Chinese government to open an independent and transparent investigation into Peng's allegations, cease the censorship of Peng's case, and allow Peng to leave China if she so desires and refrain from all retaliation against Peng's family in China," the release continued.

The measure is more symbolic than anything and is unlikely to have any effect on the IOC's actions even if it reaches Biden's desk. But it goes to show the continued resonance of Peng's case and how closely the world watches every human rights violation by the Chinese government.

"[T]he IOC has chosen to side with the oppressive PRC regime and further jeopardize Peng's freedom and safety. Peng Shuai must be allowed to speak and move freely, and her allegations deserve to be thoroughly investigated," Wexton said in a statement.

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Broadsides

'HE DIDN'T DENY YOU A VISA': The Senate is full of epic clap-backs, but this Thursday one from Shaheen is the clap-backiest in a while.

Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) was on the chamber floor to say Democrats are weak on Russia. "The simplest way to deter Russian aggression [against Ukraine] is to draw clear red lines of enforcement, something that Joe Biden will not do, something that apparently Democratic Senators will not force him to do," he said.

Shaheen, in the room where it happened, wasn't having it. Saying she took "umbrage" at his comments, she told Cotton "I'm the one who VLADIMIR PUTIN refused to visa to get into Russia because of my opposition to Russia and to what Putin was doing. He didn't deny you a visa to get into the country. So don't talk to me about how I've not been tough enough on Russia, because that dog won't hunt."

Shaheen referred to how Moscow denied her a visa in 2017 to visit the country as part of a Senate delegation. That action, over the lawmaker's vocal support for tough sanctions on Russia, led Sens. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) and JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.) to cancel their participation in solidarity.

Transitions

— JOSHUA GABOTON, who staffed former Rep. JOHN MICA (R-Texas), will lobby on behalf of L3Harris Technologies, "to advocate for infrastructure funding for the company's aviation facility in Greenville, Texas," per our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!).

What to Read

— IRINA REZNIK, HENRY MEYER and JORDAN ROBERTSON, Bloomberg News: "The Fall of a Russian Cyberexecutive Who Went Against the Kremlin"

— QUIL LAWRENCE, NPR: "The final, anguished years of a warrior-scholar who exposed torture by U.S. troops"

— ODANGA MADUNG, Wired: "Jack Dorsey's Twitter Failed African Countries"

Monday Today

— The National Defense Industrial Association, 9 a.m.: "2021 Virtual Systems and Mission Engineering Conference — with DAVID CADMAN, ERIC FICK, WESLEY KREMER, RAYMOND O'TOOLE and HEIDI SHYU"

— Washington Post Live, 9 a.m.: "Veterans and the Digital Divide — with ROBIN KELLEHER and DENIS MCDONOUGH"

— The Air Force Association, 9:30 a.m.: " Air and Space Warfighters in Action: Maj. Gen. ALEXUS G. GRYNKEWICH — with BRUCE 'ORVILLE' WRIGHT"

— The Heritage Foundation, 10 a.m.: "Guatemalan President ALEJANDRO GIAMMATTEI on Strengthening Relations with Our Partners in the Western Hemisphere — with KEVIN ROBERTS and KIRON K. SKINNER"

— The Cato Institute, 12 p.m.: "Congress and War: Reclaiming Article I Powers — with JORDAN COHEN, ERIC GOMEZ, GENE HEALY and CHRIS MURPHY"

— The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: "National Readiness for Great Power Competition — with JOSEPH VOTEL"

— The Wall Street Journal, 5 p.m.: "CEO Council Summit — with WILLIAM BURNS, MERI-MARGARET DEOUDES, MITCH MCCONNELL, ELON MUSK, ROBERT THOMSON and more"

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 6 p.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Update on U.S.-Russia Policy — with VICTORIA NULAND"

— The George Washington University Sigur Center for Asian Studies, 8 p.m.: "Shedding Taiwan's 'Invisibility Cloak': Global and Regional Prospects — with PASHA L. HSIEH, MICHAEL MAZZA, DEEPA OLLAPALLY and LIANG-YU WANG"

 

DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who we fear is updating war plans against us after our many threats.

 

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