How to worry about Omicron

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Nov 30, 2021 View in browser   By Renuka Rayasam Presented by the Connected Commerce Council With help from Tyler Weyant A Covid-19 testing facility is advertised at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images 'LITTLE EARLY TO PANIC' — "Any day now." That's when public health officials expect to find the first U.S. case of the Covid-19 Omicron variant. Flights to Europe are still up and running, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled today that he's more worried about inflation than an economic slowdown. But what happens when the first case gets here? With the pandemic trajectory riding on whether Omicron turns out to be more transmissible and virulent than Delta, Nightly turned to Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunobiology at Yale University to talk through what we know so far about the variant. This conversation has been edited. What worries you about this variant? It's a little early to panic. It does concern me that the Omicron variant has more than 30 mutations in the spike protein, which is the target of vaccines. It is possible to have a virus that is highly transmissible but less virulent. What the virus cares about is the ability to transmit. Whether it leads to a higher disease or not, that's not its concern. Not that it has any brains. But transmissibility also doesn't tell us anything about long Covid consequences, which is huge. Imagine a highly transmissible virus that causes long Covid in 10 percent of the population. That would be terrible. Any data that has been reassuring? There are some reports from the doctors who are taking care of the infected patients saying that it's not causing severe disease yet. That's a little bit reassuring, but the patients are younger. Should people who have gotten the booster shot be worried? In this country, Delta is really the dominant variant. Even with Omicron, you're likely going to be much better off because your level of neutralizing antibodies are so high. The T-cells that are specific to this spike are likely to still detect the antigen from the Omicron variant, which means that they can clear the infected cells and prevent spread throughout the body. What data will you be watching over the next two weeks? Whether it's more transmissible is information that I'm very curious about. Because if it's less transmissible than Delta, then we can really try confining it to where it is currently. The other data that's going to come out fairly quickly is the ability of vaccine-induced antibodies to neutralize the variant. That's an experiment that you can do in the laboratory. I bet that's going to show, probably, significant reduction in neutralization based on what we know already. Should we change our holiday plans? We should have a much better sense of how bad this variant is before the holidays. My plans of visiting Japan are completely off. They have a travel ban now. Never book any tickets that are not refundable. I mean, this is ridiculous, right? It can change every day. Every month since April 2020 our society seems to be ready to declare this thing over. How did we get here? Not being more vigilant about vaccinating the world is really how we get here. There are a lot of issues, not just vaccine unavailability, but also hesitancy around the world. There are countries in which there are plenty of vaccines, but only half the population got vaccinated. We're just not going to be able to control the emergence and the spread of the virus until we get globally vaccinated. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @RenuRayasam.   A message from the Connected Commerce Council: An estimated 11 million small businesses (37%) would have closed without access to digital tools. Why is Congress proposing changes that would dismantle small businesses' digital safety net? Learn more: https://connectedcouncil.org/   What'd I Miss? — Congress fumbles for shutdown remedy ahead of Friday deadline: Congressional leaders continued to bandy today over the terms of the next temporary shutdown patch, with just over three days left before federal funding expires . Because cash for the military and non-defense agencies is set to run out at midnight on Friday, Democrats need to swiftly finalize the next stopgap bill by midweek, or risk running out of time to pass it through both chambers before a shutdown strikes. But the two parties are still at odds over main conditions of the measure, which would keep government funding levels largely the same: how long the patch will last and which spending areas will be exceptions and receive a boost. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell waits for the beginning of a Senate Banking hearing on Capitol Hill. | Alex Wong/Getty Images — Powell: Fed may pull back economic support more quickly as prices spike: Powell today said the central bank will consider pulling back emergency support for the economy more quickly than planned in the face of elevated inflation , signaling growing concern over rising costs in areas from food to rent. Powell's comment came after the Fed already announced earlier this month that it would slow the pace at which it buys U.S. government debt and mortgage-backed securities, with a tentative plan to cease those purchases altogether by June. Since then, price spikes have continued at a rapid clip. The Fed's preferred inflation measure rose 5 percent in October compared to a year before, increasing anxiety at the central bank that the trend might not be resolved without intervention. — 9th Circuit upholds California ban on high-capacity ammo magazines: A federal appeals court upheld California's ban on large-capacity ammunition magazines today, reversing a lower court decision and handing a victory to Gov. Gavin Newsom . The divided en banc ruling from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals backed the constitutionality of two California laws banning magazines that can hold 10 or more rounds. The majority opinion bolstered the public safety rationale for the restrictions by noting large-capacity magazines are often used in mass casualty shootings. — Dr. Oz announces Senate bid to his millions of followers: The celebrity TV doctor made the announcement today in a Washington Examiner op-ed and rolled out a video to be shared with his millions of followers on social media. The spot will be featured on television in a "multimillion dollar ad buy" across Pennsylvania, said campaign manager Casey Contres. Mehmet Oz, a Republican, will self-fund part of his campaign and is planning to "put significant resources" into the battleground state race, Contres said. — Authorities: Student kills 3, wounds 6 at Michigan school: A 15-year-old sophomore opened fire at his Michigan high school today, killing three students and wounding six other people, including a teacher, authorities said. Oakland County Undersheriff Mike McCabe said at a news conference that he didn't know what the assailant's motives were for the attack at Oxford High School in Oxford Township, a community of about 22,000 people roughly 30 miles north of Detroit.   BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.     AROUND THE WORLD NATO WARNS RUSSIA — Another Russian invasion of Ukraine would carry a "high price," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned today, adding that the 30 allies together represent more than 50 percent of the global economy, David M. Herszenhorn writes. "Any future Russian aggression against Ukraine would come at a high price and have serious political and economic consequences for Russia," Stoltenberg said at a news conference following a day of meetings among allied foreign ministers in Riga, Latvia. The United States and other Western allies have warned of a large mobilization of Russian forces and weaponry along the border with Ukraine, raising the risk of a potential new invasion. Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014 and has backed armed separatists in a nearly eight-year-long war that continues in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. Russia carried out a similar mobilization of forces last spring but the U.S. has told allies that aspects of the current build-up seem even more alarming this time.   A message from the Connected Commerce Council:   Nightly Number 13-10 The narrow vote from an independent advisory committee to the Food and Drug Administration today to endorse the first antiviral pill for Covid-19 . The Merck-Ridgeback Biotherapeutics pill can be taken at home and can cut hospitalization rates by about 30 percent, according to available data.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     Parting Words TWO WEEKS, TOO CURIOUS — Nightly's Tyler Weyant writes: It's the hottest word this holiday season, and no, you won't need to understand video game dance crazes to talk about it: Fortnight. Two-week periods, a hallmark of the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, are back. We'll know more about the Omicron variant's danger, effect on vaccines and transmissibility in two weeks, experts say. Get your booster now! you hear, so it can fully kick in in two weeks, well before Christmas. Shipping times on hot gift items? Well, for some, two weeks might be good enough. We've been here before. On April 17, 2020, Sudeep Reddy and our own Renu wrote in Nightly, as the virus was barreling through the country the first time: "As our leaders said two weeks ago, and two weeks before that, and two weeks before that: The next two weeks are critical." We have become a 14-day nation, 330 million people counting by half-months. This latest iteration of Two-Week-Mania comes in the Christian season of Advent, where adherents are told to hold a spirit of expectancy. And what is more expectant than continuously waiting two weeks to hear … well, you might hear you have to wait two weeks again. So, we'll sit, we'll scroll, we'll practice various levels of masking. Maybe in two weeks we'll hear horrific news on Omicron. Maybe it won't be as bad as our worst fears. But on Dec. 14, in two weeks, I know this for sure: We'll be less than two weeks from Christmas, and a full two weeks from some other nonsense.   A message from the Connected Commerce Council: Digitally enabled small businesses saw 50% more revenue during the pandemic than businesses that did not use digital tools. Now, Congress is considering legislation that could hurt the digital economy – and put small businesses at risk. Learn more: https://connectedcouncil.org/   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   Follow us

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