Monday, October 11, 2021

It’s go time in tight Virginia race

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Oct 11, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Zach Montellaro and Stephanie Murray

Quick Fix

— The razor-thin race for Virginia governor is only three weeks away. Here's a dispatch from the commonwealth.

— President Joe Biden's approval rating has dropped by nearly 15 percentage points since June. One reason: the coronavirus pandemic.

— A slew of Senate candidates in battleground states raised over $1 million last quarter, nearly a year ahead of the 2022 midterms.

Good Monday morning. Score alum Zach Montellaro (zmontellaro@politico.com, @ZachMontellaro) wrote this morning's topline. Thanks, Zach! Email me at smurray@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve and @allymutnick.

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, the OH-11 and OH-15 special elections and the FL-20 special primary: 22

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 393

Days until the 2024 election: 1,121

 

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TopLine

Terry McAuliffe, left, gestures as Glenn Youngkin looks on from another lectern during a debate.

Virginia Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are locked in a tight race for governor. | Steve Helber/AP Photo

THE COMMONWEALTH — We are just 22 days away from Election Day in the Virginia gubernatorial race, which has long been considered a political bellwether. And folks, the race is close, so I spent Sunday in Richmond to catch one of the two candidates on the trail.

Richmond and the rest of central Virginia will be key to the statewide races, and it was why former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe was in town on Sunday. The big event of the day for Democrats was a fish fry right along the line between Richmond and Varina attended by the entire statewide ticket. A few hundred people listened to candidate after candidate practically pleading with supporters to go vote early as soon as possible, and to bring their friends. McAuliffe put it in a way only a former chair of a national party committee could. "Let me tell you why this matters: We spend a lot chasin' ya. So if you vote, we take you off our list," he told the crowd. "Then we can spend our resources going over harder to get voters."

And it wasn't just The Macker. His Republican opponent Glenn Youngkin was in the neighborhood during the holiday weekend as well, for a rally just a little south in Chesterfield on Friday, also bringing along the entirety of his statewide ticket. At the rally, he spoke of the national attention on the race, alongside red meat for the Republican base, per Virginia Scope's Brandon Jarvis ."This race has got the full attention of the entire United States of America," Youngkin said at his speech. "America needs Virginia to stand up and speak for her."

Just how close is it?: The latest poll in the state drives home just how tight this race is. The fine folks at the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University surveyed the race and found McAuliffe at 49 percent to Youngkin's 45 percent, within the poll's margin of error. That's a tighter race than their late August check-in, when the Democrat led, 50 percent to 41 percent. Pro subscribers can read on for takeaways and downballot numbers.

Another reason we know it's close? Democrats' fundraising missives are slamming on the panic button, imploring checked out voters to tune it to the race (and send them cash). Your (temporary) Score host has more, including a chat with the most prolific emailer: James Carville.

What are the closing messages? The most-played television spot in the entire state since the beginning of this month, according to data from our friends at AdImpact, has been Youngkin's on education, which says McAuliffe is putting "politics over parents" and "failing our kids." Youngkin has spent over $1 million on that spot since Oct. 1, accounting for two-thirds of the ads he's aired in that timeframe. And it recently elicited a response ad from McAuliffe's campaign that tries to yoke Youngkin to former President Donald Trump — a recurring strategy for Democrats in Virginia — and Betsy DeVos, Trump's former education secretary.

McAulliffe's TV ad offers have been more of a smörgåsbord, with three spots taking up about a fifth of his total airings each: A positive one about his agenda, and two negative ones attacking Youngkin's business record from his time at Carlyle. (The latter, about a children's dental clinic, got four Pinocchios from The Washington Post fact checkers.) The two are running nearly even with the total number of spots run since the beginning of the month.

The closing three weeks mean the candidates are looking for star power to bolster their campaigns, and the McAuliffe camp on Sunday previewed their first headliner: Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams, who will stump with the Macker on Oct. 17 in both Norfolk and Northern Virginia. Are other Democratic luminaries — like Biden, former President Barack Obama or former First Lady Michelle Obama — still to come?

Down the Ballot

POLL PROBLEMS — Biden's approval rating is in a slump, and that's largely related to the coronavirus pandemic, POLITICO's Chris Cadelago and Laura Barrón-López reported . Sarah Longwell, a moderate Republican strategist and Biden supporter, recently assembled a focus group of Pennsylvania Democrats, where participants all gave Biden C-minus grades or lower. They pointed to the pandemic and the ways it continues to disrupt normal life, like supply-chain problems and understaffed restaurants.

THE CASH DASH — Just over a year out from the 2022 midterms, Senate candidates in battleground states pulled in millions in campaign cash during the third quarter of the year. We'll get a fuller picture of the campaign finance landscape on Friday, when reports are due to the FEC. The third quarter covers July 1-Sept. 30.

AL-Sen: Republican Katie Boyd Britt raised more than $1.5 million and has $3.3 million in cash on hand.

AZ-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly raised $8 million, including $7.3 million raised and a vendor refund from the last cycle. Kelly has nearly $13 million in cash on hand.

OH-Sen: Republican Jane Timken raised more than $1.7 million, and has $3.1 million in cash on hand.

PA-Sen: Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb raised $1.2 million and had $2.2 million in cash on hand.

NV-Sen: Republican Sam Brown raised more than $1 million. His campaign did not provide a cash-on-hand figure.

FIRST IN SCORE: Committees: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and its affiliated organizations raised $5.3 million in the third quarter.

Arizona House: Republican Walt Blackman raised $335,000 for his bid against Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D-Ariz.). His campaign did not provide a cash-on-hand figure.

Florida House: Republican Audrey Henson raised over $205,000 in the three weeks after launching her campaign. Henson is running for Rep. Charlie Crist's (D-Fla.) seat (Crist is running for governor).

New Hampshire House: Republican Gail Huff Brown raised $220,000 over three weeks after launching her campaign against Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.). Huff Brown had $215,000 in cash on hand, WMUR's John DiStaso reported.

Texas House: Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales raised nearly $650,000 for his campaign and leadership PAC, and will report $1.1 million in cash on hand.

Wisconsin House: Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) raised $585,000 and had $2.7 million in cash on hand.

THE RACE FOR CITY HALL — Three cities — Boston, Seattle and Cincinnati — are on the verge of electing Asian American mayors for the first time, POLITICO's Marissa Martinez wrote. City Councilor Michelle Wu, the daughter of Taiwanese immigrants, is the frontrunner in the Boston mayoral race. Former Seattle City Council member Bruce Harrell, who has Black and Japanese parents, is locked in a tight race for Seattle mayor, and Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval, who has Tibetan and Indian parents, is on the ballot in Cincinnati.

"About 6 percent of the U.S. population is AAPI. But despite recently setting records for congressional representation with 18 AAPI senators and House members," Marissa points out. "Representation at the city level lags even further behind the population numbers. Just around 2 percent of elected city officials were Asian American as of 2020."

THE MAP LINES — Virginia's redistricting commission imploded on Friday, when a failed vote led three Democratic commissioners to walk out of a meeting on state legislative redistricting, the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Mel Lenor. If the commission does not meet a deadline today to agree on maps for the General Assembly, the conservative-leaning state Supreme Court will take over the redistricting process. The partisan battle on Friday was sparked when "Democrats proposed that the commission unite around a Senate map drawn by Democrats and a GOP-drawn House map as a starting point for more productive discussions," but "Republicans instead backed a GOP-drawn Senate map as a starting point."

— The Texas state Senate advanced the congressional map that will allow Republicans to keep their advantage in the state, The Associated Press reported. The map heads next to the state House for approval.

— Michigan's redistricting commission approved its first political map in a surprise vote on Friday, MLive's Lauren Gibbons wrote. The state Senate map slightly favors Republicans, and the commission voted to approve it as an "official draft" that will be presented during public hearings.

— A coalition of Democratic groups objected to Colorado's new congressional map, saying it would dilute Latino representation in a document filed to the state Supreme Court on Friday. The League of United Latin American Citizens and Colorado Common Cause are among the groups challenging the map, The Colorado Sun's Thy Vo and Sandra Fish wrote. The court will hear oral arguments regarding the map on Tuesday, and will issue a decision on whether to approve the map by Nov. 1.

— North Carolina Republicans released draft political maps last week, but they're likely to draw new versions in the weeks ahead, reports The Charlotte Observer's Will Doran. Republicans control the process in the Tar Heel State, and the state constitution bars Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper from vetoing new maps. The state's new congressional seat, under one proposed map, would be based around rural Cleveland County, where potential congressional candidate and GOP state House Speaker Tim Moore lives.

JUST PEACHY — Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger hasn't been afraid to push back on Trump's false claims that the 2020 election was rigged, and it could cost him the primary, POLITICO's Marc Caputo wrote. Raffensperger became one of Trump's top enemies in the wake of the 2020 presidential race, when the former president pressed him to help overturn the election. Now, Rep. Jody Hice (R-Ga.) is running against Raffensperger with Trump's blessing.

Raffensperger hasn't backed down. His forthcoming book, "Integrity Counts," is a recounting of his "inspiring story of commitment to the integrity of American democracy," according to the publisher. "We're out there setting the record straight. No. 1 is that President Trump did not carry the state of Georgia," Raffensperger told Marc.

— The five major candidates running for Atlanta mayor met in a televised debate Sunday night, and clashed over crime and public safety, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Tamar Hallerman reported. The frontrunners for the open seat, former Mayor Kasim Reed and Felicia Moore, both pledged to hire more police during the debate, which was co-hosted by WSB-TV and the Atlanta Police Foundation. Early voting begins Tuesday in Atlanta.

THE PROCESS — The leader of Wisconsin Republicans' 2020 election probe slammed Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in a YouTube video on Saturday, after the governor called his investigation "a $700,000 boondoggle," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Patrick Marley reported. Michael Gableman, a former state Supreme Court justice, issued and then walked back wide-ranging subpoenas to elections officials earlier this month, and recently told the paper that he did not understand how elections work.

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — Trump is pressuring Texas state House Speaker Dade Phelan to advance a bill allowing for more 2020 election "audits," the Dallas Morning News' Allie Morris wrote. The secretary of state announced a plan to audit four urban counties, but Trump is backing a bill that would "let party leaders request audits in more counties and set up a process for future reviews." The legislation cleared the state Senate.

— Speaking of Texas, Republican candidate for governor Allen West tested positive for Covid-19 and was hospitalized, the Dallas Morning News' Robert Garrett wrote. West has not received the coronavirus vaccine and said his oxygen levels were a cause for concern. He said Saturday he had received a monoclonal antibody treatment and was "already taking Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin protocols." West's wife, Angela West, is vaccinated and also tested positive.

THE EMPIRE STATE — New York Gov. Kathy Hochul's campaign released a video highlighting her ascension to the governor's office. Hochul has been low key about her campaign for a full term, but released the 2-minute clip after a number of Democrats took steps toward running in the primary against her. State Attorney General Tish James and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Public Advocate Jumaane Williams are considering campaigns.

 

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Presidential Big Board

THE HAWKEYE STATE — Trump devoted his rally in Iowa to his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, POLITICO's Meridith McGraw wrote. The rally was also a sign that Republicans are embracing the twice-impeached former president. Trump's appearance included a "who's who of influential Republicans in the Hawkeye state," including Sen. Chuck Grassley, Gov. Kim Reynolds, Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson, former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker and state GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann. Trump brought Grassley on stage to endorse his reelection bid.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY — "West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice gets trapped in elevator at mansion" — New York Post

 

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