Wednesday, October 27, 2021

☕️ Extremely unusual

Is taxing unrealized gains a good idea?
October 27, 2021 View Online | Sign Up

Morning Brew

SimpliSafe

Good morning. There's been a lot going on, so we want to make sure you didn't miss our giveaway: Refer 5 friends to the Brew this week and you'll receive a limited edition pair of Morning Brew headphones—perfect for blasting "Easy on Me" on repeat.

And there's a bonus: If you refer 5 people, you'll be entered into a drawing to win a 5-night stay at any Hilton Hotel & Resort in the world. Would be a pretty epic way to restart your travel life if you've been stuck in this country since last March.

Share to win

Neal Freyman, Jamie Wilde, Max Knoblauch

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MARKETS

Nasdaq

15,235.72

S&P

4,574.79

Dow

35,756.88

10-Year

1.610%

Bitcoin

$61,990.62

Facebook

$315.81

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The Dow and S&P rose to intraday records, but Facebook proved to be a drag after warning of ad business challenges in its earnings report Monday. Overall though, so far, (mostly) so good this earnings season.
  • Covid: Pfizer's low-dose vaccine for kids passed a big test after an FDA panel recommended it for use in kids ages 5–11. Now, as is par for the course, the FDA must decide whether to follow the panel's recommendation (it typically does).

TAX

Tax Plan Goes After the Megayacht Crowd

Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk

Photo Illustration: Mick McDougall; Photo: Anadolu Agency, Pool, Spencer Platt/Getty Images

We mentioned yesterday that Elon Musk's fortune grew to nearly $290 billion thanks to Tesla's stock surge. Some Democrats have floated a "billionaire's tax" to make Musk and his Perrier-drinking peers send a lot more of that wealth to the government.

The proposal, spearheaded by the Senate Finance Committee chair, Ron Wyden, is an attempt to raise billions in revenue to offset the costs of Democrats' ~$1.75 trillion spending bill.

It's...extremely unusual

The tax would likely target a smaller group of individuals than any other tax in American history—those with $1 billion in assets, or who earn at least $100 million in income for three consecutive years. It could apply to just 700 taxpayers.

And what would they be taxed on? Unrealized capital gains. Here's what that means:

  • Currently, investments like stocks or real estate are taxed only when they are sold for a profit.
  • Under the "billionaire's tax," you'd be taxed on your investment gains even if you haven't sold them yet. It would be like taking a stack of chips from your craps winnings before you cashed them in.

The rationale: The existing tax system is set up in such a way that the ultrawealthy can dramatically lower their tax burden by, for example, getting compensated in stock options rather than a salary like the rest of us. This plan would make that stock taxable.

Plus, it would raise a truly ridiculous amount of money. The richest 169 Americans are sitting on roughly $516 billion in unrealized gains. Elon Musk himself would have to pay up to $50 billion over the first five years the tax gets implemented, according to one analysis.

Many experts are calling it unworkable

Or worse. NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran wrote that the proposal is "perhaps the worst thought-through and most ineffective attempt ever at rewriting tax code." Questions like, "What do you do when an investment goes down?" "How would they come up with the money without selling other assets?" and, "Is this even constitutional?" are not easily answered.

Big picture: While some Democrats support the plan, others think it'll be a logistical nightmare. Still, they'll need to agree on some way to raise more revenue in order to push their spending bill forward before the week is over. One of those strategies is a 15% minimum tax on large corporations' profits, which three senators proposed yesterday.—NF

        

EDUCATION

Flip Cup Could Soon Become a Lost Art

More than 500,000 fewer students enrolled in college in 2020 compared to 2019, about a 3% drop, and an additional half-million are expected to have torn up their applications this year, according to preliminary data. That would be the biggest two-year enrollment decline in over 50 years, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

It's not the Harvards of the world that are hurting for students:

  • 10% fewer students enrolled in community colleges—which have more low-income students and students of color than four-year schools—in 2020 vs. 2019, and community college enrollment is projected to have dropped another 5.6% this fall.
  • That bucks the typical trend: Normally when the economy is doing poorly, all enrollment, but especially community college enrollment, rises as people skip out on the job market to level up their education.

Zoom out: Undergraduate and graduate enrollment has been sliding since 2012, but fell off a cliff when the pandemic kicked everyone off campus last year. Fewer students enrolling now = fewer grads seeking higher-paying jobs later.—JW

        

VENTURE CAPITAL

Putting the Fun Back in Fund

Diving into a money pit

Giphy

Despite every venture capitalist having "adventure capitalist" in their social bios, VC firms are notoriously staid institutions. That's why Sequoia Capital, one of the biggest and oldest VC firms, is restructuring as just...a fund—hold the VC.

The specifics: Sequoia is rolling up its US and European investments into one big Sequoia Fund, fed by individually managed sub-funds (venture, seed, etc.).

In addition, Sequoia wants to become a "registered investment advisor" (RIA), which will give it more wiggle room to invest in cryptocurrency and public stocks—assets that have been off-limits to traditional venture capital firms.

  • Andreessen Horowitz made the same switch from VC → RIA two years ago, but it's overall a rare move that only finance's biggest players can pull off.

Why? In a blog post, Sequoia Partner Roelof Botha called the VC model, which operates on short timelines and typically returns money back to investors within 10 years, "outdated" and "the business equivalent of floppy disks." If Sequoia has a good thing going with a certain startup, it wants to hold on and enjoy the ride.—JW

        

TOGETHER WITH SIMPLISAFE

For Every Bump in the Night

SimpliSafe

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And if you don't love SimpliSafe after 60 days—because you prefer not feeling like an all-seeing wizard—you can return it for a full refund. 

Get 40% off your system, plus a free HD SimpliCam camera when you order here.

GRAB BAG

Key Performance Indicators

Still from 'Dune'

Dune

Stat: A stunning 50% of all of Dune's domestic box office sales last weekend came from premium formats, including IMAX, Dolby, and 4DX. IMAX itself accounted for 22.5% of all market share. Whatever happened, it worked—a Dune sequel was confirmed yesterday.

Quote: "Thank God for Ted Sarandos and Netflix."

In a new standup show posted to his Instagram, Dave Chappelle praised the streaming company and its co-CEO for sticking with him in the face of backlash. Chappelle said virtually all other platforms and film festivals have withdrawn their invitations to air his documentary made in summer 2020, Untitled.

Read: What is Scenius and are we living through one now? (Not Boring)

        

REAL ESTATE

There's No Print Like Home

Rendering of a suburban street lined with 3D-printed homes.

Icon/Lennar

The home of the future might look a lot like toothpaste. 100 3D-printed homes are set to be squeezed out of a nozzle in the Austin area in early 2022, forming the largest 3D-printed neighborhood in the US.

The development, a partnership between the home construction and real estate company Lennar and 3D printing company Icon, will be a test for the technology. If the neighborhood attracts residents, it could suggest that 3D printing is a viable solution to the home construction industry's labor shortage and supply chain issues (so long as they don't run out of cyan).

How a goop becomes a home: Icon's 15-and-a-half-foot-tall printers squeeze out layers of concrete like soft serve ice cream. In a week's time, they can print the exterior and interior walls of a one-story, 2,000-square foot home.

Don't expect a big discount for buyers, though. According to Lennar, the 3D-printed homes will be priced similarly to other homes in the Austin area—a city recently described as the "capital of homes selling at super premiums."

Zoom out: Supporters of 3D-printed homes hope the technology's cheaper building methods and more environmentally friendly assembly can offer solutions to the housing crisis and traditional construction's carbon footprint.—MK

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Robinhood shares tanked more than 8% after hours when it badly whiffed on revenue targets for the latest quarter. People aren't trading crypto as much as they used to.
  • Alphabet, the parent of Google, nearly doubled its profit from the previous quarter and posted its largest revenue increase in 14 years on the back of a strong digital ad environment.
  • Microsoft also had a great quarter.
  • YouTube, TikTok, and Snap representatives testified before Congress about steps they're taking to keep kids safe online.
  • Winter Olympics countdown: 100 days.

BREW'S BETS

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It's time to build: This week, Founder's Journal kicked off another miniseries, "How To Start Building," featuring episodes all about finding startup ideas, the entrepreneur's mindset, and traits of great leaders. If you're an aspiring entrepreneur, make sure to listen wherever you get your podcasts.

It's minestron-eeee: Get funny looks when you order from a fancy restaurant? Here's a useful pronunciation dictionary.

A different view of the supply chain bottleneck: The WSJ offers us an aerial view of the backlog at West Coast ports. Check out container ships like you've never seen them before.

*This is sponsored advertising content

GAMES

The Puzzle Section

Word Search: If you've ever dreamed of donning a cape and saving the world from evil villains, today's puzzle is for you.

For the Swifties

On this day in 2014, Taylor Swift released her album 1989, home to all-time classics like "Blank Space" and "Bad Blood." Can you put her nine albums in chronological order?

Red, Speak Now, Evermore, Lover, Taylor Swift, 1989, Fearless, Folklore, Reputation

Once you figure that out...the follow-up question is: Which album is the best?

SHARE THE BREW

Win Morning Brew Headphones and a Hilton Stay

Hilton giveaway promo image with headphones and two palm trees

Want a pair of Morning Brew headphones and the opportunity to win a 5-night stay at Hilton Hotels & Resorts?

You've come to the right place. Click on that large blue button below to share the Brew and win prizes this week. Here's the deets:

  • The first 1,000 people to refer 5 friends will receive a limited edition pair of Morning Brew headphones.
  • One of those people will be randomly selected to win a 5-night stay at any Hilton Hotel & Resort in the world.

Bottom line: We're already halfway through the week, so get going on referring your fave newsletter to your friends and coworkers, and swag (and maybe a stay!) will be on its way.

Click here to start sharing

ANSWER

1. Taylor Swift (2006) 2. Fearless (2008) 3. Speak Now (2010) 4. Red (2012) 5. 1989 (2014) 6. Reputation (2017) 7. Lover (2019) 8. Folklore (2020) 9. Evermore (2020)

As for her best album, the correct answer is Red.

HOW WAS TODAY'S NEWSLETTER?

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✤ A Note From eToro

Disclaimer: eToro USA LLC; Investments are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal.

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Max Knoblauch, and Jamie Wilde

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