HE'LL ALWAYS HAVE PARIS — Sure, President Joe Biden faces some troubles at home, with legacy-defining legislation delayed, or worse, by an intraparty fight. But he's about to dive into an equally mysterious matter after he lands in Scotland Sunday night for next week's COP26 meeting with global leaders: Can the climate be saved at a conference? Whether any global progress will be made to fight worsening weather, rising sea levels and a heating planet remains unclear. Nightly talked with sustainability reporter Catherine Boudreau today about what leaders hope to accomplish, and what really needs to be done to avoid the most dire predictions. Do you think any concrete developments on climate and sustainability will emerge from COP26? The U.K., which is hosting the summit, says countries should come together and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius — a key threshold scientists say would ward off the worst effects of climate change. But there really is almost no chance that COP26 will put the world on that trajectory. That doesn't mean there won't be any progress, though. I'll be on the lookout for pledges by wealthy nations to give more money to poorer ones to help with their clean energy transitions. Also any new promises to phase out coal production (China is still building new plants), a deal for a global carbon market, and initiatives to help end deforestation. According to climate scientists and advocates, what would need to be done at an event like this to actually make a difference? Divisions over climate finance are definitely looming large over the talks. Wealthy countries in the initial Paris Agreement pledged $100 billion a year by 2020. They missed that target, although the U.N. said it could be met by 2023. Developing countries, from small island states like Antigua to larger ones like India, are holding off on setting more ambitious plans to slash emissions until they see more cash. So progress on that front could make a difference. But ultimately, the plans countries have submitted to the U.N. so far are falling short of the Paris Agreement goals. Some hoped China would bolster its previous pledge to peak emissions by 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2060. But China in an official communication this week didn't budge. And some key leaders won't be at COP26, including Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro. The country's climate diplomat said Brazil would set new targets, but that's against the backdrop of increasing deforestation in the Amazon. How damaging is it for Biden's leadership on this issue without the legislation that is stalled in Congress right now? And how are climate activists feeling about the Biden presidency overall? The Biden administration is downplaying the impact of Congress not passing major climate legislation yet and asserts the U.S. can still achieve the president's goal to slash emissions in half this decade without it. Many are skeptical, especially because Democrats backed off of their most ambitious proposal to slash the use of oil, natural gas and coal — the Clean Energy Payment Program. Plus, executive orders and regulations can easily be rolled back by the next administration, as we saw under the Trump era. So I think Biden has lost some leverage in Glasgow. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Have a safe and fun Halloween this weekend. If you're still looking for a costume idea out of Nightly, why not go as "Tyler As Dan Marino"? Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at tweyant@politico.com or on Twitter at @tweyant.
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