Axios Vitals: An easier winter ahead

Plus, poor countries left behind | Friday, October 22, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Blue Cross Blue Shield Association   Axios Vitals By Tina Reed ·Oct 22, 2021 😎 Happy Friday, Vitals readers. Today's newsletter is 869 words or a 3-minute read.     1 big thing: An easier COVID winter ahead Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios   This winter probably won't bring another crushing COVID wave, experts say. Why it matters: Last winter was the deadliest phase of the pandemic, and many Americans are braced for cold weather to once again usher in a surge in cases and deaths. But there are good reasons to think this year won't be nearly as bad. What they're saying: "I sort of think we're in a version of what our reality is going to be for the foreseeable future," Bob Wachter, chairman of the University of California, San Francisco Department of Medicine, told Axios. "Maybe it gets 10 or 20% better, maybe it gets 10 or 20% worse. But I can't see it getting 90% better or 90% worse," he said. State of play: A critical mass of Americans have been vaccinated — some even boosted — or have some natural immunity after having the illness. And vaccines for kids are expected soon. That should protect against the sort of wide resurgences of severe illness the U.S. experienced last winter, said Justin Lessler, who helps run the University of North Carolina's COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub. Its models predict a steady drop in COVID cases through March. It's possible that another new variant will emerge, but "even if we do see some resurgences due to a more transmissible variant or people relaxing in their behaviors, I'd be very surprised if we saw surges to the level of last winter," Lessler said. But, but, but: That's not to say we're out of the woods yet. We'll still see localized outbreaks and will have to continue taking precautions throughout the winter. NIAID director Anthony Fauci told CBS' "Face the Nation" last weekend it's "just too soon to tell" whether holiday gatherings should still be limited again this year. While vaccines are expected to be approved for kids soon, there are still questions about how many parents will want to get their kids vaccinated. They may not be rolled out in time to get fully vaccinated before the holidays. Read more.     2. Poor countries left behind on vaccines Data: KFF; Chart: Will Chase/Axios The world as a whole is on track to meet the WHO's goal of a 70% vaccination rate by mid-2022. But low-income countries are very much not, Axios' Caitlin Owens writes from a new KFF analysis. Why it matters: Without some kind of intervention, people who live in low-income countries will keep dying from the virus long into the future, and the risk of dangerous new variants will rise. By the numbers: Europe and the Americas initially had the world's highest vaccination rates. Over the summer, the Western Pacific region surpassed them, and Southeast Asia is also seeing vaccination rates climb. But only about 6% of Africa's population has received even one dose. What they're saying: "Instead of working together to support common sense proposals to vaccinate the world as quickly as possible, the G7, the EU and the pharmaceutical corporations have signed a 'devil's pact,'" the People's Vaccine Alliance, which advocates for greater vaccine equity, wrote in a white paper released yesterday. "[W]ealthy countries hoard doses and break promises, while pharmaceutical corporations exploit their monopolies to earn record profits."     3. Quote du jour: CDC greenlights boosters "We have to acknowledge where we're in a situation where we don't have as much data as we would like. But we still have to make practical decisions and I think there's as much data to support mixing and matching as there is for boosters in general." — John Whyte, chief medical officer of WebMD, told Axios upon the CDC's approval of boosters on Thursday for Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, as well as mixing-and-matching shots.     A message from Blue Cross Blue Shield Association Ensuring access to affordable health care     Everyone should have access to affordable health care, no matter who you are, where you live or what your health condition may be. See how Blue Cross and Blue Shield companies are working to improve health and make care more equitable and affordable.     4. The science that isn't seen Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   From conference presentations to scientific papers to databases, English is the lingua franca of science — but as a result, science published in languages other than English often goes unread, Axios' Alison Snyder writes. Why it matters: Overlooking or excluding science that isn't communicated in English could hinder global responses to pandemics, the loss of biodiversity and climate change. Language barriers also affect the careers of scientists who don't speak English. Scientific journals, especially elite ones, are largely published in English, and some evidence suggests reviewers may give papers lower quality ratings because of a linguistic bias, and not the science itself. What to watch: English is currently entrenched as the language of science, but the researchers who conducted these studies say there are ways to help elevate the work of scientists who don't speak the language. Translating science is one key way. Some journals provide paper abstracts in several languages. The Cochrane Library, published by Wiley, includes translations of medicine and health evidence summaries across 15 languages, including for COVID-19. Go deeper.     5. Catch up quick Photo illustration: Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Image   UnitedHealth underpaid "millions" of providers, feds say. (Modern Healthcare) Democrats' winnowing health care ambitions. (Vox) As COVID rages on Rikers, staffing crisis delays vaccine mandate for jail staff. (Gothamist) Chicago's biggest health system is splitting up. (Crain's Chicago Business)     6. Dog of the week Mozart. Photo: Micheal Garrett   Meet Mozart, an 8-year-old Tibetan Terrier who lives in Brooklyn, New York, with his dad, Michael Garrett, a retired attorney and executive. Too good: "When we named him Mozart we didn't realize that everyone in Prospect Park would ask: 'Does he write music?'" Garrett wrote. "After a while, we realized that the correct answer is 'He is quite prolific: he produces two movements each day.'"     A message from Blue Cross Blue Shield Association Making health coverage more affordable     Enhanced premium assistance that makes health care coverage more affordable will end in 2022. See how Congress can help millions of middle class families by expanding access, reducing costs and making health care more equitable for everyone.   ☺️ Not a subscriber yet? Let's fix that. Like this email style and format? Learn more about Axios HQ. It'll help you deliver employee communications more effectively.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. 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