🤫 Scoop: Manchin’s next move

Plus: The conservative ad target | Sunday, September 19, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By HCA Healthcare   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team ·Sep 19, 2021 Welcome back to Sneak. We hope you're enjoying the final weekend of summer. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,454 words ... 5.5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: Scoop - Manchin: Delay Biden plan to '22 Sen. Joe Manchin walks through the Capitol Visitor Center last week. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images   Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is privately saying he thinks Congress should take a "strategic pause" until 2022 before voting on President Biden's $3.5 trillion social-spending package, people familiar with the matter tell Axios' Hans Nichols. Why it matters: Manchin's new timeline — if he insists on it — would disrupt the plans by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to vote on the budget reconciliation package this month. Driving the news: Back home in West Virginia last week, Manchin told a group of employees at a Proctor & Gamble facility in Martinsburg he wanted to pause all the talk about the $3.5 trillion bill until 2022, Axios was told. Those semi-public comments track with some of his private conversations about how long he wants to impose the "strategic pause" he floated in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this month. Manchin didn't give a specific timeline in his op-ed. Any delay on the Democrat-only reconciliation package could imperil House passage of the separate $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which Pelosi has promised to pass by Sept. 27. House progressive lawmakers are publicly vowing to vote against the infrastructure bill if it's not paired with the $3.5 trillion bill to be passed through the budget reconciliation process. But centrists Democrats are adamant the House pass the bipartisan bill first — next week. The big picture: Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) are leading the Democratic opposition in the Senate to the size and scope of the reconciliation package. It's largely been written by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and would vastly expand the social safety net from cradle to grave, as the New York Times recently put it. Biden campaigned on many specific programs, including universal preschool and free community college. White House officials, as well as progressives in Congress, argue they're desperately needed to help foster a more equitable and inclusive society. But Manchin has signaled he has deep concerns with specific elements of the package, and that his spending range is capped at $1.5 trillion. Last week, the president failed to persuade him to accept the $3.5 trillion number during a meeting at the White House. Keep reading.     2. Conservatives' 2022 big target: Tax increases Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Conservative groups are unveiling huge ad-buys going after vulnerable House Democrats over tax increases and other revenue measures in their party's huge infrastructure spending bill, Hans and Axios' Lachlan Markay have learned. Why it matters: Biden and other Democrats have an immense amount of political capital riding on a $3.5 trillion bill facing razor-thin margins in both chambers. Conservatives are running ads targeting the House members who leaders will need to pass the measure. Driving the news: The Common Sense Leadership Fund, a new Republican-aligned nonprofit group, yesterday launched what it says will be a $10 million ad campaign over 10 days. The ads hit 14 House Democrats over provisions that would change rules for retirement account contributions and distributions for high-income Americans. "Washington liberals want to tax your retirement funds to pay for their new trillion-dollar power grab," one of the two ads says. The other says Democrats are "raiding your retirement to pay for their power grab." The group is led by former National Republican Senatorial Committee executive director Kevin McLaughlin. Another GOP-aligned nonprofit, the Coalition to Protect American Workers, is expanding an ad-buy that hits provisions to enhance IRS tax enforcement. An "army of IRS agents" will be "coming for every dime they can grab," the group warns, with footage of drones and surveillance cameras, in an ad unveiled earlier this year. The coalition, which is led by Marc Short, former Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff, plans to expand its ad campaign into the seven figures and run two new 30-second spots, the group tells Axios. It's hitting six Democrats — five in the House and one in the Senate — with the IRS ad and two others focused on other tax hikes in the bill and efforts to finance electric vehicle infrastructure. It says that will boost Chinese battery manufacturers. Between the lines: Both groups are targeting moderate House Democrats who've expressed misgivings about the $3.5 trillion spending bill, including the new revenues that will be required to pay for it. If the centrists balk at specifics — or the scope — of a bill with huge spending aimed at expanding the social safety net, the dual-track strategy the president is pursuing with congressional leaders could collapse. Keep reading.     3. Delayed maps upend midterm campaigns Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   Midterm candidates are panicking about how the congressional maps will ultimately be drawn, with several strategists telling Axios' Alayna Treene that campaigns are in limbo. Why it matters: Candidates are unsure if the district they're targeting will remain intact or be reshaped by the process. The uncertainty is especially vexing to Democrats, who are vying to maintain their narrow margin in the House. The once-per-decade, census-driven process isn't expected to be completed until the spring. The 18-month campaigns in normal off-years will be condensed to nine-month sprints during 2022. Between the lines: One of the biggest issues is candidate recruitment. "It's always a pain in the a-- to try and recruit candidates in a redistricting cycle, because, in essence, you're trying to convince someone to give up more than a year of their life to run in a district that hasn't been drawn yet," Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report told Axios. "In many cases, the key for the campaign committees is to try and get as many people into races, trying to raise money as quickly as possible, and Republicans have done a better job on that front thus far." "They're anticipating more favorable districts in many places, and they are benefiting from having the energy of being the party out of the White House," Wasserman said, adding that the situation paralleled 2017. Another challenge is fundraising. A big concern among the House Democratic and Republican campaign arms is where to spend money while the district lines are written in pencil. Many candidates currently in vulnerable districts are raising a ton of money from donors, sucking up all their attention and resources, but their seats could eventually be shifted into a safer region and the money left unspent. And candidates who think they're "safe" face an even bigger risk, since they could end up in far more competitive territory. "This will be huge from a fundraising perspective," a top House Republican political adviser told Axios. "That late in the game, donors are not going to want to shovel out more money, leaving a lot of those folks [who haven't already secured donations] on an island." This is especially true in primaries. Wasserman said: "There are going to be musical chairs in any states that play out very quickly, and having a war chest can intimidate a potential primary opponent out of a certain district or race. ... That's going to be the key financial dynamic." Keep reading.     A message from HCA Healthcare HCA Healthcare invests in high-tech clinical centers to advance care     HCA Healthcare supports caregivers in many ways, including through their Centers for Clinical Advancement, which provide highly interactive, practice-based instruction. Why it's important: These innovative educational centers help improve colleagues' clinical skills and patient care.     4. Beto not even best Dem against Abbott Beto O'Rourke speaks at a rally at the Texas State Capitol in June. Photo: Sergio Flores/Getty Images   Actor Matthew McConaughey's nine-point lead in a theoretical matchup against Greg Abbott shows just how vulnerable the hard-right Texas governor could be in a general election. Why it matters: Abbott has won conservative accolades for his abortion and mask and vaccine bans. Hans scooped today that former Rep. Beto O'Rourke is preparing to announce a gubernatorial challenge — but a recent poll shows he's not even the most popular Democrat in the state. Few in Texas Democratic circles believe the Academy Award-winning McConaughey is serious about a potential political run. That would mean O'Rourke would have a clearer shot to secure his party's nomination. It also would let him moderate some of his positions while training his focus on Abbott, who still has to fend off a primary challenge from former Rep. Allen West. By the numbers: The new poll from the Dallas Morning News and University of Texas at Tyler had McConaughey up 44% to 35% over Abbott. In the same survey, O'Rourke's numbers were far softer. Abbott beat him 42% to 37%. Abbott's approval rating is 45% positive, 44% negative. Between the lines: For comparison, President Biden had a 42%-52% approval rating — a full 10 points underwater. Sen. Ten Cruz (R-Texas), who faced brutal headlines over his trip to Cancun last winter while his state's electric grid was failing, was — barely — in positive territory, at 44%-42%. But, but, but: Texas Democrats have dreamed big before — like when O'Rourke challenged Cruz in 2018 — only to be disappointed on Election Day. Abbott may be vulnerable, but it's telling that Biden is even less popular. Go deeper: "Scoop: Sources say Beto plans Texas comeback in governor's race"     5. Pic du jour: Sunday drive Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images   President Biden — led by a guy definitely not carrying a tennis racket — took a bike ride near his vacation home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.     A message from HCA Healthcare The U.S. hospital system that's treated the most COVID-19 inpatients     HCA Healthcare confirmed their first COVID-19 case in January 2020. HCA Healthcare has treated more suspected and positive COVID-19 inpatients than any other health system in the nation. Key Numbers: This includes more than 173,000 patients admitted for inpatient care as of June, 30 2021.   📬 Thanks for starting your week off with us. A reminder that your family, friends and colleagues can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' free newsletters through this link. Like this email style and format? Learn more about Axios HQ. It'll help you deliver employee communications more effectively.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: