Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Double trouble for Biden

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade, Tara Palmeri and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

SIREN, just posted: "Dems fear Biden's domestic agenda could implode," by Burgess Everett and Heather Caygle, POLITICO's co-congressional bureau chiefs: "Internal Democratic discord has wounded President JOE BIDEN's massive social spending plan, raising the prospect that the package could stall out, shrink dramatically — or even fail altogether."

TRUDEAU HANGS ON — "JUSTIN TRUDEAU will hang on to his job as Canada's prime minister in an election victory Monday that fell short of his main objective: tightening his hold on power," Andy Blatchford and Zi-Ann Lum write from Ottawa. More on what Trudeau now faces here

BIDEN'S OTHER MISSION — Today, Biden interrupts his mission to rescue his agenda in Congress with a mission to rescue his agenda with world leaders.

He'll speak at 10 a.m. before the U.N. General Assembly to an audience far more skeptical about his insistence that "America is back" than they were in the afterglow of DONALD TRUMP's loss, which was (mostly) celebrated around the world.

AFGHANISTAN FALLOUT: The hangover for European allies perturbed by America's messy pullout from Afghanistan still lingers. A new report from Amnesty International details what everyone expected: "The Taliban are steadily dismantling the human rights gains of the last twenty years." One of America's final acts of the war was a drone strike killing 10 civilians (mostly children) that the White House on Monday said Biden wanted investigated and that will be used as a cudgel by adversaries to attack America this week at the U.N.

CLIMATE SKEPTICISM: On climate policy, a top priority at the UNGA this week, Biden's aggressive plan to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030 has been outsourced to a coal-state senator with no interest in the White House's preferred approach to reaching that goal. On Monday, before his meeting with Biden, U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES said there was "a high risk of failure" at the November climate summit in Scotland.

COVID OUTRAGE: Biden's Covid-19 policies have fared little better. Europeans have seethed for 18 months over a Trump-Biden ban on travel to the United States. Biden will be showing up with good news: The administration announced Monday that fully vaccinated foreigners are now welcome into the U.S. The World Health Organization has criticized America's approach to vaccine sharing and the Biden administration's push for booster shots when much of the world hasn't had a single dose yet.

OVERCOMING THE ULTIMATE INSULT: When France recalled its ambassador last weekend, the statement heard 'round the world from the French foreign minister is one that seemed unthinkable from an ally when Biden was inaugurated but was akin to remarks already being whispered in D.C. diplomatic circles:

"This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr. Trump used to do."

We checked in with Ryan Heath, who is reporting all week from the U.N. for his Global Insider newsletter and podcast. Here's his rundown of what you should watch:

BIDEN'S GOALS:

— Look past Afghanistan and French fury over losing their $70 billion Australian submarine contract with no warning.

— Get developing countries to believe whatever climate finance deal that he's ready to offer to help pay for global emissions cuts.

— Show commitments way beyond Covid vaccine charity. (Developing countries are angry they can't buy U.S.-made vaccines on the open market or use American intellectual property to make their own generic versions of vaccines.)

BIDEN'S RISKS: Platitudes about multilateralism and "America's back" will be quickly shot down. Diplomats from four continents told POLITICO that trust and goodwill around the administration took a heavy hit from the Afghanistan withdrawal, a point hammered home by France's wounded pride in recent days.

OVER THE TOP: Brazilian President JAIR BOLSONARO is set to break New York law this morning by entering the U.N. General Assembly hall unvaccinated to deliver the opening speech. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD and British PM BORIS JOHNSON threw shade at him Monday, promoting vaccines, and in LTG's case taking a Covid test in front of U.N. HQ to role-model "responsible behavior."

More headlines: "Climate, Covid and Biden's Challenged Credibility Underline U.N.'s Big Week," NYT "Biden's U.N. speech will try to convince member states that 'America is back,'" The Guardian … "Biden seeks to open a new chapter in world affairs, facing fresh skepticism from allies," WaPo

Good Tuesday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

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FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ben Schreckinger's "The Bidens: Inside the First Family's Fifty-Year Rise to Power," out today, finds evidence that some of the purported HUNTER BIDEN laptop material is genuine, including two emails at the center of last October's controversy.

A person who had independent access to Hunter Biden's emails confirmed he did receive a 2015 email from a Ukrainian businessman thanking him for the chance to meet Joe Biden. The same goes for a 2017 email in which a proposed equity breakdown of a venture with Chinese energy executives includes the line, "10 held by H for the big guy?" (This person recalled seeing both emails, but was not in a position to compare the leaked emails word-for-word to the originals.)

MORE: Emails released by a Swedish government agency also match emails in the leaked cache, and two people who corresponded with Hunter Biden confirmed emails from the cache were genuine.

While the leak contains genuine files, it remains possible that fake material has been slipped in.

BACKGROUND: A former Hunter Biden business partner, TONY BOBULINSKI, said last year the "10 Held by H" email was genuine and referred to plans for Hunter to hold equity in the venture — which did not get off the ground — on behalf of his father. Biden's campaign said he never considered going into business with his family.

WHAT DOES THE WHITE HOUSE HAVE TO SAY? Asked for the book whether Joe Biden had an April 2015 encounter with Burisma adviser VADYM POZHARSKYI at a dinner at Cafe Milano, a White House spokesman did not respond directly. Instead, the spokesman referred to an April WaPo article that includes a campaign denial of any meeting. The article confirms Joe Biden's presence at the dinner, while casting doubt on any Pozharskyi encounter there. Pozharskyi did not respond to requests for comment.

WHAT DOES HUNTER HAVE TO SAY? This spring, he told CBS the laptop "certainly" could be his. His lawyer, CHRIS CLARK, did not respond to questions for the book.

JOIN US — The killing of 20-year-old Army soldier VANESSA GUILLEN, who had told family she was being sexually harassed by several soldiers prior to her disappearance at Fort Hood last year, has galvanized calls to change how the military deals with sexual assault and harassment. Sens. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.) and JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), a veteran and a sexual assault survivor, have long pushed Congress to act on the issue. Their efforts are gaining steam but still face opposition. Join Rachael on Thursday at 1 p.m. for a Women Rule virtual joint interview with Ernst and Gillibrand to discuss the state of their proposed legislation and what it will take to curb sexual assault and sexual harassment in the military. Register here

 

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BIDEN'S TUESDAY:

— 10 a.m.: The president will deliver remarks before the U.N. General Assembly.

— 12 p.m.: Biden will participate in a bilateral meeting with Australian PM SCOTT MORRISON.

— 2:15 p.m.: Biden will depart Manhattan to return to the White House, where he is scheduled to arrive at 3:55 p.m.

— 4:45 p.m.: The president will participate in a bilateral meeting with Johnson in the Oval Office.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' TUESDAY: The VP will travel to the D.C. home of JAMIE SMITH — who is part of the "Sandwich Generation," caring for her children and her parents — for a kitchen table conversation on the administration's agenda.

— 9:30 a.m.: Harris will meet with MELINDA FRENCH GATES to discuss the pandemic in the VP's office.

— 3 p.m.: Harris will meet with Johnson in the Vice President's Ceremonial Office.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will gaggle aboard Air Force One on the way back to D.C.

The SENATE will meet at 10:30 a.m. to take up MARGARET STRICKLAND's judicial nomination, with a cloture vote at 11:30 a.m. and a potential confirmation vote at 2:30 p.m. after weekly conference meetings. DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS and FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY will testify before the Homeland Security Committee at 9:30 a.m.

The HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m.

Speaker NANCY PELOSI will visit SUZANNE BRENNAN FIRSTENBERG's "In America: Remember," a public art installation commemorating U.S. coronavirus deaths on the National Mall, at 11 a.m. and deliver remarks.

 

INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

A little girl holds her stuffed animal high above the water as migrants, many from Haiti, wade across the Rio Grande river from Del Rio, Texas, to return to Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, Monday, Sept. 20, 2021, to avoid deportation.

PHOTO OF THE DAY: A girl keeps her stuffed animal dry as migrants cross the Rio Grande from Del Rio, Texas, back to Mexico as the U.S. deports people to Haiti. | Felix Marquez/AP Photo

CONGRESS

WHIP COUNT — In a must-read up this morning , our Olivia Beavers provides early clues to an all-important question on the Hill this week: If progressives oppose the bipartisan infrastructure bill when it comes up for a scheduled vote Monday, will Republicans provide the votes needed to pass it? The short answer appears to be no, at least not in the numbers needed. "Fewer than a dozen House Republicans are expected to vote for the $550 billion infrastructure bill — which got 19 Senate GOP votes last month — according to multiple lawmakers in the party," Beavers writes. BUT … if it becomes clear that the party's $3.5 trillion reconciliation plan is dead, GOP votes for the infrastructure bill "could triple."

"'If the $3.5 trillion reconciliation push dies, there will be more GOP support,' said centrist Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), referring to the filibuster-proof process Democrats are using for their separate social spending bill. Bacon, a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, said its members would lend a hand on infrastructure 'if there is a standalone vote.'"

A REMINDER: Progressives are vowing to tank the infrastructure bill unless it's paired with the reconciliation package. And it's unlikely at best that sprawling measure will be ready by Monday.

DISASTER FORECAST — WaPo's Tony Romm: "House and Senate Democrats on Monday unveiled a measure that would fund the government into December while staving off a potential default on U.S. debts through next year … But the party's plans immediately encountered fierce resistance from Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL (R-Ky.), who reaffirmed Republicans' prior threats to vote against an increase in the country's borrowing limit even if it is attached to a measure that funds the government."

IMMIGRATION PLAN B — Democrats are preparing a backup plan for immigration reform following the Senate parlimentarian's Sunday ruling, in hopes that the parliamentarian can get behind a revised provision, Marianne LeVine and Sarah Ferris report : "One alternate policy that Democrats and advocates are floating is narrowing their horizons on immigration by making a simple change to a decades-old 'registry' law … That law allows immigrants to apply for a green card if they arrived in the U.S. before a certain year, and that date was last altered in 1986 to let undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. before 1972 apply for legal status.

"Some Democrats say simply updating that law with a more recent year, greatly increasing the number of immigrants eligible to apply for legal status, could pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian."

ALL POLITICS

RETHINKING REDISTRICTING — David Wasserman reports for The Atlantic that Democrats are undergoing a shift in thinking when it comes to redistricting. Rather than pack people of color into a single district to guarantee representation, "multiple lawsuits aiming to unpack hyper-minority seats could help determine control of the House." The lede quote, from Rep. TERRI SEWELL, who represents a gerrymandered, 61% Black district in Alabama.: ""I'm for broadening the representation of African Americans across Alabama, instead of concentrating it in my district," she said.

DEPT. OF POT STIRRING — LAT's ace political columnist Mark Barabak writes that California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM is a "hot commodity" right now whose natural next step would be running for president. "But one thing stands in his way: Vice President Kamala Harris."

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POLICY CORNER

WHERE'S XAVIER? — A big knock on HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA before he assumed the job was his lack of public health experience. Now, it turns out, he's curiously removed from some of the biggest internal debates over the administration's pandemic response, our Adam Cancryn reports today. The lead example: "[W]hen Biden's senior health officials gathered one Sunday in August to make the high-stakes decision that all adults should get Covid-19 booster shots, Becerra wasn't included on the call." His limited role is "contributing to breakdowns in coordination that have hampered the response and fueled accusations of political interference."

TEXAS ABORTION LATEST — Two lawsuits were filed against Texas doctor ALAN BRAID, who said he performed an abortion despite the state's new law prohibiting such procedures after six weeks. The lawsuits are the first to come out of the state's new law, Texas Tribune's Reese Oxner reports.

GOVERNMENT INVESTIGATIONS — Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN is recruiting a senior official to investigate the review by the Central Command that found that 10 Afghan civilians were killed in a U.S. drone strike, AP's Robert Burns reports.

— Meanwhile, U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced it would begin a formal investigation into operations at the border, following photos that surfaced online of agents using "whips on migrants seeking asylum along the U.S.-Mexico border," Natasha Korecki reports.

"DHS, which said a full probe would help 'define the appropriate disciplinary actions to be taken,' has also dispatched additional personnel to oversee future border patrol operations over what's become a sprawling, makeshift encampment of Haitians in Del Rio, Texas, seeking entry in the U.S."

ANOTHER GRIM MILESTONE — The coronavirus pandemic has killed more Americans than the 1918 flu, AP's Carla Johnson reports.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

HAVANA SYNDROME WATCH — CNN's Kylie Atwood reports that "when CIA Director BILL BURNS traveled to India earlier this month a member of his team reported symptoms consistent with Havana syndrome and had to receive medical attention … The incident set off alarm bells within the U.S. government and left Burns 'fuming' with anger. Some officials at the CIA viewed the chilling episode as a direct message to Burns that no one is safe, including those working directly for the nation's top spy."

FOR YOUR RADAR — PAUL RUSESABAGINA, the Rwandan man whose life-saving actions inspired the movie "Hotel Rwanda," was sentenced Monday to 25 years in prison in a case widely condemned as a sham trial against a political opponent of President PAUL KAGAME. Rusesabagina is a permanent U.S. resident, and his daughter is pushing the Biden administration to pressure Kagame: ANAÏSE KANIMBA said it was time for Biden to "walk the talk on human rights" and prioritize African issues.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jason Rezaian is the subject of a new podcast on Spotify called "544 Days," produced by Gimlet, Crooked Media and A24. "For 544 days, Jason Rezaian was held hostage in Iran's notorious Evin prison. Interrogated. Sealed off from the outside world. He was accused of being an American spy, though his formal title was Washington Post Tehran Correspondent. This is a story about government and family and journalism, and what it took to free an innocent man … all while navigating the high-stakes world of nuclear diplomacy," the podcast's description says.

Sarah Longwell is launching a new podcast, "The Focus Group with Sarah Longwell" on Bulwark Media. Her first guest is Cook Political Report's Amy Walter. The podcast is starting as a six-episode limited series that will take listeners "behind the glass and let them hear what Americans are really thinking about politics."

John Delaney, the former congressman and 2020 presidential candidate, is relaunching Congressional Bank as Forbright Bank, focused on financing and speeding up the transition to a clean-energy economy.

Jesse Benton, who was pardoned by Trump a month before he left office, was charged with funneling $25,000 from a Russian national into Trump's 2016 campaign. Also charged was Doug Wead.

Jeff Bezos committed $1 billion to conservation efforts Monday, and had a "good exchange of ideas on climate change" with Johnson.

The Bidens' family cat is in foster care and not coming to the White House any time soon.

Chuck Grassley, 88, says he'll decide by Nov. 1 whether to run for an eighth term in the Senate.

The guy who wreaked havoc at Le Diplomate Sunday night destroyed 24 bottles of liquor worth about $2,000. He was arrested and charged with felony destruction, per AP.

In better culinary news, Central Michel Richard, the classic downtown D.C. bistro, is reopening today. And a new coffee spot is opening in the basement of the Cannon House Office Building.

The Concordia Summit is announcing Matthew Swift and Morgan Ortagus are chairing a new Indo-Pacific Summit in parallel to the November APEC meetings to focus on public- and private-sector American and Indo-Pacific cooperation.

POLITICO is now accepting applications for the 2022 Fellows Program in partnership with the National Association of Black Journalists. One NABJ member will be chosen for one of the four available slots. Two fellows will begin in January, and two fellows will begin in June. More information and application details here

New America announced its 2022 National Fellows: Azam Ahmed, Keisha Blain, Benoit Denizet-Lewis, Rose Eveleth, Mike Giglio, Lauren Michele Jackson, Myra Jones-Taylor, Sarah Kay, Abrahm Lustgarten, Francesca Mari, Julian Brave NoiseCat, Janet Reitman, Anna Louie Sussman, Justine van der Leun and Ellen Wu.

TRANSITIONS — Emily Trifone is now deputy comms director at the Democratic Attorneys General Association. She previously was a press officer at Planned Parenthood Federation of America. … Jason McMann is joining Morning Consult as head of geopolitical risk analysis. He previously was head of analytics at GeoQuant. … Patrick Kelly is now a speechwriter for NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. He previously was director of speechwriting and publications for the AFL-CIO. …

Emily Bromberg is joining ICHOR Strategies as a managing partner. She most recently was senior VP/COS at the Anti-Defamation League and is a Clinton White House and Hillary for America alum. … Ryan Naples is now a senior manager for public policy at DailyPay. He previously was deputy director at Tech:NYC. … Helene Holstein is now a social media strategist with CVS Health. She previously was a social media strategist with the American Academy of Pediatrics and is a Sherrod Brown alum.

ENGAGED — Kendall Breitman, a writer at Wix and an NBC, Bloomberg and POLITICO alum, and Dana Adelson, a doctor, got engaged Sept. 13. Adelson proposed in Washington Square Park in Philadelphia, Breitman's hometown. The couple met when Breitman was on a Birthright trip to Israel four years ago. Pic Another pic

— Sarah Sutton, director of public affairs at PhRMA, and Evan Ryan, a U.S. Marine Corps captain, got engaged Saturday in Grand Marais, Minn. The two met through Hinge during the earlier days of the pandemic and went on a run in Old Town for their first date. Pic Another pic

— Sebastian Ontiveros, national director of the multicultural business alliance and strategy group at Toyota, and Oriana Piña, lead comms manager for diversity and inclusion at AT&T, got engaged over the weekend at the LACMA Lights in Los Angeles. The two met in D.C. at a friend's and the next day attended a U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce reception. Four years later, they have a fur baby, Diego, and a human baby, Oliver. Pic Another pic

WEEKEND WEDDING — Wyatt Yankus, an associate at the Brunswick Group and an Obama White House alum, and Daniel Prins, a cancer researcher at the University of Cambridge originally from Canada, got married Saturday. The ceremony took place on the Canadian side of Niagara Falls, with immediate family from both sides in attendance. The two met in spring 2017 in England, where Dan works and where Wyatt was stationed as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYT's Dean Baquet … Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and David Trone (D-Md.) … USAID Administrator Samantha PowerShealah Craighead … CNN's Brianna KeilarMaggie Dougherty … POLITICO's Karey Van HallJessica AndrewsIan Tuttle of Sen. Ben Sasse's (R-Neb.) office (3-0) … Reuters' Alexandra AlperAnna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner … Franklin ZyriekGeorgette Kerr of Plurus Strategies … Erin Graefe Dorton of Prime Policy Group … Toula VlahouMike Walsh of Foley & Lardner … Facebook's Brian Roehrkasse … Beacon Media's Ian Russell Rodney WhitlockMelanie Steele … former CIA Director James Woolsey Cass SunsteinKiki Burger … The Atlantic's Tori Latham … NBC News PR's Dom Cuce

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