You receive this email, because you signed up to get email from YellowTunnel newsletter on 11/12/20. If you no longer wish to receive any emails from YellowTunnel, please use the "Unsubscribe" link towards the bottom of this email. August 22th, 2021 | Issue 91
Hello Traders, The see-saw of value versus growth continues to fuel a perplexing trading landscape where very mixed and uneven economic data has the Fed putting out fuzzy FOMC notes that are worded with "maybe taper, maybe not" language. In the past two weeks, traders have received bullish reports regarding labor, leading indicators and manufacturing, At the same time, negative reports of consumer sentiment homebuilder sentiment, retail sales and hotter-than-forecast inflation have circled the market in yellow caution tape.
As of Thursday, there was a fairly decisive move by fund managers to camp out in big-cap tech, because that's what they know most about. They feel safe there even though the sector is overbought. The spread of the delta variant is another concern, but also the rising notion that the vaccines used to date have an efficacy life of less than 6-8 months, with the government now pushing booster shots that have limited scientific research to support their effectiveness.
But what traders do know is that businesses are functioning quite well, especially companies that dominate their space. This was revealed by the very robust second-quarter earnings season highlighted by those companies within the financial, industrial, transportation, materials, chemicals and agriculture sectors. More revealing was that the leaders of these respective sectors almost universally raised third quarter and full-year guidance that fueled a sharp rally followed by this past week's sharp pullback.
To that point, the Covid-19 data as noted by former CDC Director Scott Gottlieb will peak by Labor Day, and if he is right, then value stocks will make another stand that could morph into a fresh uptrend. I know this theme is counterintuitive to the current rhetoric, but real money is made when real fear is in the air. Thus, the short-term fear factor that the market is enduring should climax in the next two weeks and offer up a compelling buying opportunity for the leading value stocks that fund managers favor.
What this simply means is that stock picking is at a premium and where the power of AI models in our advisory services become so valuable.
To great returns, Vlad Karpel P.S. Please see below for access to the Power Trading Live Strategy Roundtable presentation I recorded on Thursday, July 29th. The link is below...
P.P.S. Please note our new sections called Trading Concepts. This sections is designed to bring aspiring and experienced traders weekly insights to the short-term trading landscape, sector analysis, stocks and ETFs in focus, views and opinions on trading discipline and a review of what type of trading strategies are working best.
TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK This company is the second-largest holding in XLB and is benefiting greatly from the super-cycle in home building and remodeling. The company is the leader in the manufacture and distribution of paints, coatings and related products to the commercial and retail markets.
The company is forecast to see revenues increase by 11% this year, to $21 bln and earnings to come in around $9.40 per share, representing 14.60% year-over-year growth. America's infrastructure definitely needs a fresh coat of paint and with the passage of the infrastructure bill on deck, these numbers will only be adjusted higher by the 28 analysts that cover the stock....
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CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE The $SPY traded in the range between $435 and $441. The value/reflationary stocks sold off today. Technology stocks rebounded from the recent sell off on the spike in the treasury prices.
The $DXY has broken above $90.60 resistance and has confirmed its break out. The next level of resistance is at $94. The $TLT has resumed its upward momentum.
Based on the steep correction in the reflationary stocks, strong dollar and overbought technology stocks, the market will continue the correction in August. The $SPY short-term support level is at $435, followed by $422.
The SPY overhead resistance is at $445. I expect the next stage of correction to resume this week or next. I would be a buyer of value stocks on corrections and sell technology stocks on any rallies...
SECTOR SPOTLIGHT My AI models are flashing some buy signals in the materials sector where the ETFs and stocks have been consolidating for a couple of weeks following an impressive showing of second-quartersecond quarter results. The eventual passage of the infrastructure bill puts a long-term demand-pull equation factor well into the sector as does the general rebound for the broader economy.
The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) is my favorite way of casting a net over the hottest set of stocks in the sector to alleviate single stock risk. This ETF has pretty good price action as well, ideal for traders looking to trade in and out of ETFs. The top holdings are well-known and broadly owned names...
Power Trading Live Strategy Roundtable To effectively compete in the rapidly moving equity markets, active day traders and swing traders must stay ahead of new market innovations and technological changes used by hedge fund traders and proprietary trading firms. With traders like you in mind, we designed this intensive roundtable where you will deepen your understanding of all aspects of stock and options trading. NOTE: We encourage all subscribers to view the instructional videos on how to best use your membership and invite our members to participate in live weekly strategy roundtable workshops that are also archived for your convenience so that they can to be viewed at a later time.
TRADING CONCEPTS Understanding Game Theory For Stock Traders Are you a bull or a bear? Best be both. Game Theory is essentially picking favorable outcomes when there are different factors involved, each with a different goal. Is it preferable to be a bull or a bear? Well, actually neither. Utilizing game theory will help you realize that sometimes it is preferable to be a bear and sometimes it is preferable to be a bull, and sometimes it is better to be a duck, just kidding, no ducks here...
DISCLAIMER: Vlad and his team may have a financial interest in the picks as they trade many of the same equities and options they pick. Vlad Karpel and YellowTunnel (Company) is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. All investing strategies are made available to the general public on a regular basis. We do not provide personalized financial advice or investment recommendations. As an investor, you know that any kind of investment opportunity has its risks. There is no such thing as low-risk stocks and we recommend you invest wisely and that only risk capital should be used to trade. Investing in Stocks and Options is highly speculative. No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed here and on our website. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE SUCCESS: It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators developed at YellowTunnel will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Nor should it be assumed that future picks will be profitable or will equal past performance. All of the content on our website and in our email alerts is for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. Remember, you should always consult with a licensed securities professional before purchasing or selling securities of companies profiled or discussed on YellowTunnel.com. Performance results that are discussed above are from the Live Trading Room, multiple YellowTunnel tools were used to achieve these results. Trade % Gain/Loss is calculated by dividing the $ Gain/Loss by the Max Risk which is the posted Stop Loss for the trade. Yellow Tunnel's performance data represents the average return on all trading recommendations from January 1, 2020, to Today. ** Triple-digit returns are not typical and are not intended to reflect the likelihood of similar returns in the future. This email was sent to edwardlorilla1986.paxforex@blogger.com by info@yellowtunnel.com. Questions or inquiries regarding the website and/or service may be submitted via email to info@yellowtunnel.com. You may also complete our inquiry form located here.
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