Saturday, July 17, 2021

All the big US VC records will fall

Plus: PE record book also being rewritten; Lab-grown protein cultivating investor interest; What's next for SPACs after this week's SEC fraud charges?
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July 17, 2021
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Deals, exits, funds—US VC's records for value are going to get even bigger
The first six months of 2021 in the US venture capital market were characterized by an almost unbelievable pace of activity across dealmaking, exits and fundraising.

And after setting new records for value across all three of these categories in the pandemic year of 2020, it's almost assured that they will all be broken again in 2021, and this time by a large margin.

The exit market has been the standout in the first six months, as it has already set an annual record for exit value in just half a year.

The continued story with exits revolves around the wide-open IPO window allowing the growing population of unicorns to find liquidity.

More than 120 public listings closed in H1, a pace that would rival the totals from 1999 and 2000 if sustained. Outlier deals are also always important to remember here, as the direct listings of Coinbase and Roblox make up over $120 billion of the total $372 billion in exit value.

The dealmaking side of the market has also been flush with cash, as capital investment has spiked across all stages with particular strength in the late stage.

Nontraditional investors have built upon their entrenchment during 2020 with increased activity, driving the mega-deal market to a new all-time record of 385 rounds of $100 million or more.

The rising tides haven't been confined to the late stage, however, with ever-larger deals cascading through the entire venture lifecycle.

VC firms have matched the elevated activity by heading out into the market to raise new funds—and at an equally impressive rate. Given the mark set in the first six months, 2021 will likely be the first year in which US VCs raised at least $100 billion.

The VC flywheel is spinning faster than ever, as proceeds from today's exits become tomorrow's funds and next year's unicorns. And there aren't many signs of it stopping anytime soon: Feel free to reach out to me or our institutional research group with any feedback or questions.
Best,

Cameron Stanfill, CFA
Senior Analyst, Venture Capital
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Market Updates
Speaking of banner years, here's a quick reminder of a few records set to fall in the US PE industry by the end of 2021:
  • Deal count
  • Deal value
  • Add-on % of buyouts
  • Software activity
  • Exit count
  • Exit value
  • Fundraising capital raised
In our Q2 US PE Breakdown, our analysts explain how we got here and what to expect going forward. You can also access the underlying data in XLS format:
get the free research and data
 
Thematic Research
Reinventing Meat
Lab-grown protein is cultivating investor interest

Cultivated meat startups really began to proliferate in 2017—and VC funding followed soon after.

Investor interest continues today, with this year having already obliterated the annual record for capital invested worldwide.


But not everything in the industry is ready to order, as costs are high and major regulatory hurdles exist.

Our latest analyst note explores the science, history and business of cultivated protein as it continues to transform the world of food and agriculture. What you'll get in the report:
  • An updated market map across categories like protein producers and upstream suppliers.

  • Insight into how cultivated proteins are made, and why hybrids with plant-based proteins may be important.

  • Analysis into core market drivers and opportunities, along with the challenges standing in the way of widespread adoption and scale.
read the free research
Webinars & Events
What consequences will come from this flood of capital into the US venture market?

How will future returns be impacted?

When will nontraditional investors pull back on their activity?

On August 4, we're hosting a panel with the NVCA and Silicon Valley Bank to discuss all of the major trends at play in the US venture industry, pulling from the Q2 Venture Monitor.

It's free to attend: register here
Analyst Commentary
Senior VC analyst Cameron Stanfill weighs in on the SEC charging space tech company Momentus, its SPAC sponsor and others with defrauding investors:

"Changing SEC rules regarding SPAC disclosures remain one of the largest existential threats to the longevity of the SPAC market.

"While there haven't been any official rule changes, the recent SEC enforcement on misleading statements around the deal between Stable Road Acquisition and Momentus will likely not be the last of these charges brought in relation to SPAC acquisitions.

"The SPAC sponsor incentives around getting a deal completed and the general speed of the SPAC acquisition process does bring some concern around compressed due diligence timelines, but we expect that the vast majority of SPAC acquisitions in the last year have been completed in good faith.

"We believe SPAC IPO activity will continue going forward, although at less of a frenetic pace than we saw during the first quarter of 2021, as we believe SPAC sponsors will continue to adapt.

"Additionally, given the massive amount of SPACs searching for targets, new acquisitions should continue to flow without too much interruption from this negative outcome with Momentus."

 
Cameron Stanfill, CFA

Senior Analyst
Venture Capital
Mobility tech analyst Asad Hussain offers his thoughts on the VC/tech implications of the EU's new plan to address climate change:

"Europe's green policies are significantly incentivizing innovation in transportation, leading to a surge in VC investment in the space.

"In the first half of 2021, a record $9.5 billion in venture capital was invested in European mobility startups.

"Major deals in 2021 include battery maker Northvolt's $2.75 billion Series E, electric air taxi developer Volocopter's $242 million Series D and self-driving truck manufacturer Einride's $110 million Series B.

"Innovations in technology will be key to decarbonizing transportation and enabling the shift to electric.

"We believe venture capital will play a key role in financing and fueling the growth of the sector going forward."

 
Asad Hussain

Senior Emerging Technology Analyst
Mobility Tech
In the News
Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • Aurora's recent SPAC deal has put the spotlight back on autonomous trucking. "With robotaxis, you have to create the demand. But with the trucks, the demand is there," says analyst Asad Hussain. [Axios]

  • First, it was SoftBank. Recently, it's also been Tiger Global. Analyst Kyle Stanford comments on the motivations driving big money into venture. [Protocol]

  • How much US private equity money is being deployed in Greater China? [New York Times]
If you're a media member interested in interviewing our analysts, contact our PR team.
ICYMI
Highlights from our other research content published over the past few months:

Market updates Thematic research Emerging Technology Research (report previews) Coming next week (subject to change)
  • European PE Breakdown (sneak peek)
  • Venture Capital Barometer
  • 2021 Venture Capital Outlook: H1 Follow-Up
  • 2021 Private Equity Outlook: H1 Follow-Up
Thanks for reading! Feel free to email us any time with feedback, questions or tips!

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