Sunday, May 30, 2021

I did the work for you. Sunday Prep (May 30) with RickyAnalog

How I plan to make money this week. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

SUNDAY PREP

with RickyAnalog
VIEW COMPLETE SUNDAY PREP HERE

I hope everyone is enjoying their memorial day weekend so far. Many of us at TrueTrader have close military connections so our hearts and minds are with the fallen men and women who made all this possible.

Upgraded Analysis now using MarketSmith
 

A few weeks ago my friend and colleague Jason (TheGoose) brought on a special guest for one of his "Goose Droppings" series he puts on for our members. In this session, Christian, a former public fund manager mentioned using MarketSmith to obtain deeper insights into the markets. I've incorporated this service into my Sunday analysis and I couldn't be more excited.

Ok, let's get into it.

BROADER MARKET

$ES / $SPY (Daily)

The ES looks pretty damn healthy here. After last Friday's ugly daily candle, the market woke up Monday and went straight into beast-mode. It hasn't quite made it back to ATHs but they are within striking distance. There always remains the possibility of not reaching the highs and rolling back over, but really have to think this is going higher. 

As mentioned last week, this could also coil for another week or so and get a nice tight range built for it to eventually make a more powerful move. Consolidation isn't a bad thing. In fact, it's highly productive and typically the biggest, most sustainable moves come out of long consolidation periods. 

$NQ / $QQQ

Nasdaq really starting to shape up nicely after spending a few weeks looking a bit vulnerable. There was zero doubt that for a period of time money really was flowing out of tech and into other sectors. But if you stop and think about it, tech isn't going anywhere and is STILL positioned to be the industry where all the major innovation comes out of. So it wouldn't be surprising to see money flows come rushing back in eventually. We have now aggressively reclaimed the 20d and 50d. It has really made up ground on the S&P, which it was definitely lagging behind for a few weeks. 

$BTC

BTC is still struggling to regain it's composure ever since the major trend reversed. We are now coming into the 61.8% fib retrace as well as the weekly 50sma. That would be the first area where I might be thinking you have a high probability of it finding some actual support that could begin to form a new base. If it can't find buyers down there, then it very well might be heading down to retest the breakout area around $20k. 

Remember, once this finds a base for it to begin attempting to regain it's composure, there shouldn't be any expectation of it heading back to highs immediately. The best thing it could do is begin to build a base for 1-3 months before it tries to make any serious push back up. If it just immediately heads back up towards breakdown levels around $47k, to me that wouldn't be bullish and I would expect that move to get stuffed. This thing needs some time to heal. 

LONG SETUP

Top 30 to find Strength


Notice the top 30 is full of energy and retail groups. So that is where I want to focus my attention for long opportunities as long as the money flows stay coming in. 

 

So these are the stocks comprising the Retail-Leisure Products Group, the 3rd ranked group. So out of these names, I will always be wanting to focus on the names that trade at least a certain amount of volume because for day trades we don't want to get stuck in illiquid names. 
From there it's a matter of looking through the charts and seeing which ones may possibly be set up for a trade. 

Strong Stocks Looking for Continuation

$DKS

From the list above, Dick's really stands out. They reported earnings last week and gave a very nice breakout on high volume. Since the big move, the stock has pulled back to support on much lower volume. I can really see this holding some levels here and then making another big push. The lows from Thursday/Friday are perfectly positioned against the monthly and quarterly pivots. I would either look to scoop some stock risking those lows or if they can't hold there, then I may look to see if it gives an opportunity to scoop off the annual pivot around $94. The other thing that may happen is that it may just push right off the open Tuesday and if it can break above $100 I may look to join trend on dips if they start to hold. 
 

$M

I still think this Macy's chart is setting up for a big move. But due to the small ATR ($0.95), it appeals to me more as a swing idea than a day trade. That doesn't mean I won't try and sniff out my entry on an intraday timeframe. That is exactly the way I would look to get involved in the name. Any significant flushes into key levels can be looked at as scoop opportunities with the ability to swing it as long as it closes strong from your entry. 

 

$OMF

This is one of the leading stocks in the Finance-Consumer Loans group, the 6th ranked group. Chart looks primed. It's already starting to make a bit of a push through on some increasing volume. Would like to see it get over $58.12 to confirm and then I would be looking to get long to see if this setup can provide some nice follow-through to the upside. I really liked the way it's cruising on the 20d/50d combo and has that monthly pivot in the same area. Any flushes to that $55 level might provide a great entry. If it never gives us the pullback prior to breaking out over the highs, I still  can look to get long on dips if it develops a strong trend. 

LONG SETUPS

Oversold Reversion Setups

$DLTR

Dollar Tree sold off hard after their earnings report last week, but it had already come in quite a bit off highs leading into the report. Feel like this move might be getting a bit overdone and should offer a really nice bounce at some point. First area of interest for me is that annual pivot at $94.19. Will watch to see if we get some more selloff Tuesday off the open for a nice scoop. This could easily want to retest $100+. The lower the better. 

SHORT SETUPS

Bottom 30 to find weakness


Here are the bottom 30 groups by rank. This is where I want to hunt for weak stocks to possibly short.

Weak Stocks Looking for Continuation

$JKS

Jinko Solar is part of the weakest group by rank and it is definitely one of the weaker names. It's made a 30% push off the recent lows straight up into the declining 50d. If it doesn't roll over right here and give a nice leg lower, my guess is that it has only a little higher to go before that actually happens. I will either look to fade a pop up to the monthly pivot at $38.33 or possibly join trend on Tuesday if it just shows signs of weakness right off this 50d. 

$CHGG
This one is a bit lighter on the volume, but I still think it will be tradable if it gives a pop back into the breakdown area around $80. Would prefer to wait for it to spike into the monthly pivot at $81.67 if possible. But it first needs to get above the declining 20d which may not be an easy task. 

SHORT SETUPS

Overbought Reversion Setups

$SPCE

Oh boy, this name got bought up last week along with the rest of the meme-stonks. IMO this is beyond overdone and that daily candle from Friday should have longs getting a bit worried as there are probably quite a few bag holders trapped up there. Any pop back towards $33 should offer a nice entry with the ability to just risk off the $33.50ish area. Love seeing something get overbought in a WEAK sector like this one. 

SPECIAL SITUATIONS

$LAZR

Luminar has a cool 181m shares unlocking Tuesday. If you understand how the market is a supply and demand equation constantly adjusting, then you understand how important this could be. This name was a SPAC, which were all the rave back in 2020. But we have since seen how these things behave once their huge amounts of supply become freely tradable.

Most of the people in on the deal from pre-merger deal have a TON of gains to lock in if they sell immediately. It doesn't mean that it's a guarantee that this will get hammered, but the possibility is certainly there and this is by no means a small amount of supply.

Most of the warrants in the deal exercise at $11.50 and the founder shares and executive shares are most likely held from WAYYYY lower. Not only that, but we have recently seen 2 days last week where this "all of a sudden" started having headlines again. Oh, how convenient.

If this thing gaps up on some lame fluff PR Tuesday morning I will be taking a short position.

Even if it doesn't gap up, if the tape looks heavy, I will be getting in there short and seeing if they decide to just sell heavy into the bids. 

https://www.bamsec.com/filing/162828021011266?cik=1758057

^^^Here is the SEC filing registering the shares for anyone that likes the details.
 

EARNINGS PLAYS


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