| Simplified wave analysis and forecast for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/CHF on March 11 2021-03-11 GBP/USD Analysis: The wave level of the dominant upward trend of the British pound since March last year exceeded the level of the daily scale of the chart. The price has reached the intermediate resistance zone. Oncoming traffic has been developing from it in the last two weeks. The ascending sections do not have sufficient potential for a reversal. Forecast: During the current day, the end of the ascending rate, the formation of a reversal, and the beginning of a decline are expected. The movement pattern is likely closer to flat. An activity can be expected towards the end of the day. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.3970/1.4000 Support: - 1.3850/1.3820 Recommendations: Until the end of the entire correction wave, purchases in the major market of the British pound are risky. It is recommended to track signals for selling the pair in the area of the resistance zone. 
USD/JPY Analysis: The wave level of the ascending wave from January 6 exceeded the correction scale of the previous descending wave. This section in the larger wave structure of the daily TF of March 9 last year took the place of the final part (C). The quotes are approaching the lower border of a strong potential reversal zone. Forecast: In the coming sessions, the sideways movement of the price is expected to end, the exchange rate will change and the upward movement vector will continue. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 109.30/109.70 Support: - 108.40/108.10 Recommendations: There are no conditions for selling the yen in the major market. It is recommended to track buy signals in the area of settlement support. 
EUR/JPY Analysis: The direction of the price movement of the euro/yen cross since May last year is set by the ascending wave algorithm. By now, the quotes have reached the potential reversal zone. On the hourly chart from February 25, a bearish structure with a reversal potential is formed. Forecast: Today, the price rise is expected to end, a reversal in the area of the resistance zone, and the price will move down. When changing the course, a short-term puncture of the upper limit of the resistance zone is not excluded. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 129.50/129.80 Support: - 128.50/128.20 Recommendations: Trading on the pair's market today is possible within the intraday with a fractional lot. Purchases of the pair are risky. It is recommended to monitor all emerging signals for selling the pair. 
USD/CHF Analysis: On the chart of the Swiss franc, a counter wave has been developing within the dominant bearish wave since the beginning of this year. The price has reached the maximum elongation, above which its wave level will exceed the correction scale. The quotes are located in the area of the strong resistance of a large TF. There are no signals of an imminent change of course on the charts yet. Forecast: In the upcoming trading sessions, the most likely end of the pullback is in the area of settlement support. Then you can wait for a reversal and a second attempt to break through the resistance zone. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 0.9350/0.9380 Support: - 0.9270/0.9240 Recommendations: There are no conditions for selling the Swiss franc on the market today. It is recommended to look for instrument purchase signals in the support area. 
Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted line shows the expected movements. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time! EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 11. COT reports. Euro buyers make their way up. Aiming for the 1.1943 high 2021-03-11 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: The data on inflation in the US did not greatly affect the balance of power in the market, as it fully coincided with economists' forecasts. This enabled buyers of the euro to maintain their advantage and continue the upward correction of the pair. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened: you can clearly see how, after the US report was published, a false breakout to the 1.1905 level was formed and the price returned to the area under this range. All this resulted in forming a signal for opening short positions, which was never realized. After some time, there was a breakthrough and so the pair rose above the 1.1905 level. A reverse test from above, which took place a little later, did not lead to forming a signal to buy the euro, since at the very first candlestick in this area was broken, which pushed the euro below this range. Considering two incorrect signals, I conclude that the level was simply incorrectly determined. Therefore, I made the decision to return to the levels that I had at the beginning of the week. 
The technical picture has slightly changed compared to yesterday. Buyers need to think about a breakthrough and settle above the resistance of 1.1943. Testing of this level from top to bottom in the first half of the day creates a signal for you to open long positions in order to continue the bullish correction. However, much will depend on the European Central Bank's decision on monetary policy. If the ECB increases the bond purchase program, this could strengthen the euro, since it will significantly affect the yield of bonds, which has recently been very much preventing the euro from returning to the upward track. The bulls's main goal is to surpass 1.1942 and return to the resistance area of 1.1998. A breakout and being able to test this level from top to bottom creates another buy signal for the purpose of rising to a high like 1.2047, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair falls in the first half of the day before the ECB's decision, then it would be best to pay attention to support at 1.1891. However, you can open long positions from there only if a false breakout is formed there. I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from a larger low like 1.1838, which practically coincides with this month's low. There you can count on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: The initial task is to protect resistance at 1.1943. Forming a false breakout there creates a signal for you to open short positions in hopes of pulling down the pair to a support like 1.1891, where the moving averages pass, playing on the side of buyers. It will be possible to talk about a possible breakthrough and consolidation below 1.1891 only after the ECB announces its decision on monetary policy and on condition that the central bank leaves it unchanged. In this case, a breakthrough and reverse test of 1.1891 from the bottom upwards creates a new sell signal for the purpose of pulling it down to this month's low, to the 1.1838 area, which is where I recommend taking profit. If the euro grows above the resistance of 1.1943, then I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound from a new high of 1.1998, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2047. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 2 revealed a sharp decline in long positions and a very large increase in short positions, which indicates a clear shift in the market towards sellers of risky assets. This is confirmed by the graph of the euro decline, which we have been observing for the third week. This time, it was not possible to quickly win back the next large decline in the pair. The sharp rise in bond yields in many developed countries continues, which plays in the favor of the dollar, as investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the greenback more attractive. The recent approval by the US Senate of a new bailout package and a $1,400 payment to all Americans affected by the pandemic makes risky assets even less attractive. Therefore, it is better not to rush to buy euros, but to wait for lower prices. A good advantage for the euro will be the moment when the active curtailment of quarantine and isolation measures begins in European countries: Germany has already announced its plan in this direction, but it has not yet come to the point. It is also necessary to wait for the moment when the service sector will start working in full force again, which will lead to an improved economic outlook and also strengthen the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 228,501 to 222,655, while short non-commercial positions rose from 90,136 to 96,667. As a result, the total non-commercial net position declined again for the third consecutive week, from 138,365 to 125,988. The weekly closing price was 1.2048 against 1.2164 a week earlier. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the upward correction will continue for the pair. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1905 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1882 will increase the pressure on the pair. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 11. COT reports. Bears did everything they could to protect the 1.3919 resistance 2021-03-11 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: An excellent signal for opening short positions appeared yesterday after the US inflation report was released. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. The bears tried to surpass 1.3855 in the first half of the day, but then the bulls gained control over this level - sort of like making a false break. But after 10 minutes, the price fell below 1.3855, which negates all plans for a quick entry into long positions. Considering that I was forced to skip the morning rally, the emphasis was shifted to resistance 1.3919, from which the actions were more successful. You could see how sellers formed a false breakout at this level, returning the pair to the area below it, and then testing it from the bottom up: this creates an excellent entry point into short positions, as a result of which the pair falls by almost 40 points. 
At the end of the US and today's Asian session, the bulls still managed to settle above the 1.3919 level, and now the whole emphasis in the first half of the day will be placed on it. Important fundamental statistics on the UK will not be released today, so you can focus on the eurozone and the US economy. Forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.3919 creates a new entry point for opening long positions in order to continue the upward correction for the pair. The nearest target will be resistance at 1.3995, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target is still the high at 1.4062. In case the pound falls in the first half of the day and trade is not active in the 1.3919 area, then you can safely open long positions immediately on a rebound from the large support at 1.3848, where the lower border of the current rising channel passes. If buyers are not active in the 1.3848 area, then I recommend postponing long positions until the 1.3783 low has been tested, counting on a rebound of 30-35 points within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The initial task is to bring back the lost level of 1.3919. Being able to test it from the bottom up will return new sellers to the market, expecting a renewed decline in GBP/USD, and the breakdown of the moving averages will lead to a larger sale of the pound and push it to return to a low like 1.3848. An equally important goal is a breakthrough and test this level from the bottom up, which creates an additional entry point into short positions for the purpose of returning to support at 1.3783, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound grows further in the first half of the day, then it is best not to rush to sell: you can open short positions immediately on a rebound from the 1.3995 high counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next major resistance area is seen around 1.4062. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 2 reduction in both short and long commercial positions. Closing short positions turned out to be stronger, which led to an increase in the positive delta. And although the growth in the yield of US bonds is providing serious support to the US dollar at the moment, in the medium term, bulls can only use the pair's correction in order to enter the market at more attractive prices. The anticipation of a quarantine rollback in March this year will support the pound, so will new measures to help the UK population in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, recently announced by Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak. Long non-commercial positions declined from 68,266 to 65,138. At the same time, short non-commercials fell from 37,288 to 29,056, which retains good prospects for the pound's succeeding growth. As a result, the non-commercial net position rose to 36,082 from 30,978 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 13,928 against 14,067. The downward correction in the pound will attract new buyers. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by buyers to continue the upward correction for the pair. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.3945 area will push the British pound to rise. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3870 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 11, 2021 2021-03-11 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the low made at the level of 1.3780 and is heading towards 385 Fibonacci retracement level seen at 1.3948. Any violation of this level will lead to the test of the technical resistance located at 1.3965 and 1.3982. The bears are still in control of the market in the short-term, so traders should expect another push down towards 1.3780 and below. Please keep and eye on the weekly time frame chart as well as there is an interesting trend reversal candlestick known as Shooting Star at the very top of the last rally towards 1.4224. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4174 WR2 - 1.4089 WR1 - 1.3934 Weekly Pivot - 1.3853 WS1 - 1.3702 WS2 - 1.3617 WS3 - 1.3458 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 11, 2021 2021-03-11 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has broken out of the main descending channel zone and is heading towards the level of 1.1965, which is the local technical resistance. The key short term technical support is located at the level of 1.1813, so please keep an eye on this level because any violation will lead to another wave down towards 1.1799 - 1.1789 zone. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook, but the current bounce from the oversold market conditions favors the bounce first. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2243 WR2 - 1.2176 WR1 - 1.2024 Weekly Pivot - 1.1958 WS1 - 1.1798 WS2 - 1.1738 WS3 - 1.1580 Trading Recommendations: The long term trend on EUR/USD pair remains up on monthly time frame char, however the weekly time frame chart show the counter-trend corrective cycle is in progress. This corrective cycle has not been completed yet, because the key level for bulls is located at 1.1608. As long as the market trades above this level the up trend is valid and all of the down waves should be used to open long positions. 
Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for March 11, 2021 2021-03-11 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market from the level of 1.1928 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) may continue to move up with the target of 1.1991 - the 38.2% retracement level (white dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue working up with the target of 1.2039 - the 50% retracement level (white dotted line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- Volumes - up;
- Candlestick analysis - up;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger bands - up;
- Weekly chart - up.
General conclusion: Today, the market from the level of 1.1928 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) may start moving up with the target of 1.1991 - the 38.2% retracement level (white dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue working up with the target of 1.2039 - the 50% retracement level (white dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.1928 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the pair may start moving down with the target of 1.1887 - the 61.8% retracement level (red dotted line). Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 11. Europe is threatened with another COVID-19 wave. Euro to rebound because of the ECB. 2021-03-11 
In general, the world is progressing very smoothly away from the coronavirus. The rate of infection has dwindled remarkably, going down by more than half of the peak records last year. However, if we look at it closely, we will see that situations in some countries are still bad. For example, Brazil still has a very high infection rate, and Europe is at risk of another pandemic wave. In fact, daily incidents in both France and Italy are huge, and the pace of vaccinations is very slow. 
EUR/USD: Bulls are trying to raise the rate of the euro up, but the direction of the currency greatly depends on the outcome of the ECB meeting today. Open long positions from 1.1920 to 1.1860. Open short positions from 1.1830. The data on US inflation failed to make an impact on the markets yesterday. Indicator analysis. Daily review for GBP/USD for March 11, 2021 2021-03-11 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, the pair is likely to go up to the upper fractal at 1.4015 (the daily candlestick as of March 4th, 2021) from 1.3932, the closing price of yesterday's daily candlestick. The upward movement is expected to extend if the price tests this level. In such a case, the target is seen at the historic resistance level of 1.4217 (the blue dotted line). 
Fig. 1 (daily chart) Comprehensive analysis: - indicator analysis - uptrend - Fibonacci levels - uptrend - volumes - uptrend - candlestick analysis - downtrend - trend analysis - uptrend - Bollinger bands - uptrend - weekly chart - uptrend Conclusion: Today, the pair is likely to go up to the upper fractal at 1.4015 (the daily candlestick as of March 4th, 2021) from 1.3932, the closing price of yesterday's daily candlestick. The upward trend is expected to extend if the price tests this level. In such a case, the target is seen at the historic resistance level of 1.4217 (the blue dotted line). Alternatively, the pair may go down to the support line of 1.3820 (the red bold line) from 1.3932, the closing price of yesterday's daily candlestick. The upward trend is expected to extend if the price tests this line. In such a case, the target is seen at 1.3944, the 85.4% retracement level (the yellow dotted line). USD/JPY. Upward trend is not yet over: nearest target is set at 109.30 2021-03-11 The USD/JPY pair left the borders of 109.00 mark amid the general weakening of the US currency. Over the past three weeks, starting from February 23, the price has been sharply rising, breaking through all resistance levels. As a result, the indicated pair surged by more than 400 points – from the level of 105.00 to the annual high of 109.24. However, USD/JPY buyers did not manage to consolidate in the area of the 109th price level: the dollar ceased to enjoy its former demand amid falling Treasury yields. At the same time, the upward trend continues to be in force, so temporary price declines can be used as an excuse to open long positions. At the close of yesterday's US trading session, the US Congress finally approved the so-called "American Rescue Plan" – a package of additional assistance to the country's economy in the amount of 1.9 trillion dollars. The markets actually ignored this fact, since all other decisions on this issue after the Senate's approval of this bill were technical. In the Lower House of Congress, Democrats feel confident with enough votes in reserve, contrary to the Upper House, where the ratio with the Republicans is 50/50 along with the decisive vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. Therefore, the congressmen easily approved the document and sent it to Joe Biden for signature. It is expected that the first payments and the corresponding tranches will be made within the next two weeks. The US economy will be pumped with money, and traders will monitor inflation and GDP indicators, which may show an acceleration in growth. In particular, Wall Street Journal experts believe that the US GDP will increase by almost 6% this year. It should be noted that such rates have not been observed since the beginning of the 80s. 
The final approval of the important bill was a widely expected event, therefore, the US dollar did not show increased volatility that time. In any case, the American Rescue Plan will provide significant support to the US dollar in the medium term (not to mention the long term consequences) and most importantly, while paired with the Japanese yen, which is also caught up with its own issues. As an example, the USD/JPY pair showed a 40-point growth during the Asian session on Thursday, although the US dollar index fluctuated in a quite narrow range, actually standing still. This suggests that the dollar bulls are still in control of the pair and are ready to continue the upward trend. On another note, the downward correction of the USD/JPY pair was caused not only by the US dollar's weakening, but also the rumors circulating around the media that the Japanese regulator may allow free fluctuations in bond yields in a wider range. To simply put, the Bank of Japan allegedly intends to weaken control over the bond yield curve on its next meeting, March 19. This information first appeared in the Japanese press, where the journalists referred to anonymous sources. Later, other information (also unofficial) appeared in the media, indicating that the Japanese Central Bank only discusses such intentions in a hypothetical way. In other words, this fundamental factor did not support the yen for long, due to its inconsistency. In contrast, the "actual" fundamental factors put pressure on the Japanese currency. This week, the final data on Japanese economic growth for the 4th quarter was published, which was revised downward. In quarterly terms, the Japanese economy increased by only 2.8%, against the forecasted growth of 3.2% and the previous value of + 5.3%. As for the annual terms, the volume of GDP rose by 11.2% from the previous value of + 12.7%. The rate of capital expenditures on capital goods and equipment also slowed down. The expenditures of Japanese households noticeably fell as well, which will inevitably be reflected in the growth of inflation. The foreign trade also suffered: Japan's exports fell by 12%. Overall, the Japanese economy experienced the strongest decline since 2009 at the end of last year. 
In view of such dynamics, the Japanese yen cannot oppose itself to the US dollar, especially considering the recent American fundamental events – strong Nonfarm, relatively good inflation data, approval of a large-scale aid package, etc. All this suggests that the upward trend for the USD/JPY pair is still in effect, despite a slight downward pullback. The technical picture of USD/JPY also speaks in favor of moving upwards. On the daily chart, the pair is located above the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku indicator and above all its lines. The bullish signal "Parade of Lines" indicates the potential for further price growth. In addition, the pair is located between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. This also indicates the bullish sentiment of traders. As the nearest upward target, we can consider the level of 109.30 – this is the resistance level corresponding to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 time frame. Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 11, 2021 2021-03-11 The position of the US dollar slightly weakened yesterday, which caused the dollar index (DXY) to decline to the level of 91.76. It is fair to note that the dollar index (DXY) is the ratio of the US dollar (USD) to a basket of six currencies, which means that it is a weighted average of the US dollar against the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), pound sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF). In this case, the decline in the DXY index leads to a weakening of the US dollar relative to its competitors. As for the economic calendar, the United States published its inflation data, which has a growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.6%, but in reality, a stronger growth was observed, that is, to 1.7%. This inflation growth is a positive factor that pushes the national currency up. However, investors were concerned of such a rapid growth, as it could lead to the Fed's tightening of the monetary policy. The value of the US dollar strengthened locally by the time inflation data was released. What happened on the trading chart? The EUR/USD pair continues to pullback from the variable pivot point 1.1835. As a result, the quote approached the lower border of the psychological area of 1.1950/1.2000/1.2050. The GBP/USD pair is in the pullback stage from the pivot point of 1.3785, where the market participants moved to the lower border of the psychological area of 1.3950/1.4000/1.4050. 
Trading recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 11, 2021 Today, the results of the European Central Bank meeting will be known, whose interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. Investors are more interested in Christine Lagarde's press conference, where she may talk about the topic of consumer activity, since things are not going smoothly as the regulator would like. In this case, it is hard to make a prediction. Therefore, one should carefully monitor the press conference, its results, where there will be a clear subsequent speculative move on the market depending on the regulator's rhetoric. ECB meeting results - 12:45 Universal time Press conference - 13:30 Universal time This afternoon, the US is expected to publish its weekly data on claims for unemployment benefits. If there is an improvement in the labor market report, this will lead to economic growth, which may encourage the national currency to rise. - Volume of initial applications for benefits is expected to rise from 745 thousand to 725 thousand.
- Volume of repeated applications for benefits is expected to fall from 4,295 thousand to 4,220 thousand.
US applications for benefits - 13:30 Universal time Considering the current EUR/USD trading chart, the quote was seen following the deviation of 1.1950, which coincides with the pivot point on February 5. We can assume that the quote may move into a deceleration stage, followed by a price rebound along a downward course. However, it is worth considering that the conditional resistance area, from which market participants will interact, has a range of 100 points. 
As for the GBP/USD trading chart, one can observe that the process of interaction is built in a similar way in the area of the psychological level of 1.4000, from which the principle of rebound or breakdown can be worked out. Alternatively, it is worth seeing the price hold above the level of 1.4050 in the H4 time frame. 
Forex forecast 03/11/2021 on EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD from Sebastian Seliga 2021-03-11 Let's take a look at the technical picture of EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD before the ECB interest rate decision today. EUR/USD and GBP/USD: ECB decisions to set the direction of the euro. 2021-03-11 Contrary to what was expected, the latest data on US inflation did not cause significant changes in the market, since the figures completely coincided with the forecast of economists. But core inflation did drop altogether, which led to the strengthening of risk assets against the US dollar. On a separate note, the US Congress passed the $ 1.9 trillion bailout bill yesterday, so now, all that is needed is President Joe Biden's signature. He is expected to sign it this Friday.  The new economic support is a major political victory for the new US president, as it demonstrates his influence over the Democratic Party that controls the Congress. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke about the new bill and said it would help weather the crisis the US economy is currently facing. "The new aid package will provide a good foundation for building a better future after the coronavirus pandemic," Yellen said. However, the market did not react to the good news, which suggests that traders have long ago switched to a more important issue: the meeting of the European Central Bank. During this conference, members will announce new forecasts for EU GDP and inflation, as well as make decisions on the monetary policy. Many expect the ECB to revise its current stimulus program and expand the timing and scope of its PEPP emergency bond buying program. As for the economic forecasts, huge revisions are not anticipated since the projected surge in consumer prices early this year is temporary. Such a large increase is not really expected in the following years. ECB members shall also decide on how they will deal with the growing bond yields, as such could seriously harm the region's economic recovery. That said, economists predict that bond buying volumes will be raised in an attempt to influence yields. All these will certainly affect the rate of the euro. Specifically, if there are no changes in the monetary policy, then, most likely, the bear market will continue. The same shall happen if the ECB only slightly intervenes in the stimulus program. But if the regulator announces significant changes on its policy, EUR / USD should resume its upward trend in the market.  In that regard, a lot depends on 1.1950, as a break above it will trigger a further climb towards the 20th figure, and perhaps to 1.2050 and 1.2090. But if the quote returns to 1.1890, EUR / USD will drop to 1.1835. Going back to US inflation, consumer prices last February rose by 0.4%, as predicted by the US Department of Labor. The main impetus for this growth is the sharp jump in oil and gasoline prices, which increased by 6.4% in February. As for core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, consumer prices grew by only 0.1%, a bit lower than the projected 0.2%. And on a yearly basis, consumer prices shoot up by 1.7%.  With regards to base prices, growth slowed from 1.4% to 1.3%, which reassured the Federal Reserve. Tomorrow, another important report will be published, but this time it is on producer prices, which are expected to increase by 0.5%. GBP A dispute arose between the EU and UK this week, when European Council President Charles Michel accused London of imposing a direct ban on the export of coronavirus vaccines to EU countries. But yesterday evening, representatives from the European Commission agreed that the UK did not impose such a ban, and said the statements made by Michel were on a completely different point. It turns out that Michel just wanted to know how much vaccine was exported from the UK, since it is important to know such details to form an overall picture of the joint efforts to counter COVID-19. "We know that different volumes of export vaccine production are approved. But we also know for sure that we are a very active exporter of vaccines, while our partners have slightly different views, "Michel said.  To date, a total of 34 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been exported from the EU to various countries. About 9 million doses have been shipped to the UK alone, while about 1 million doses have been shipped in the United States. With regards to the GBP/USD pair, a break above 1.3920 will trigger a further jump towards the 40th figure and 1.4060, while a return to 1.3920 will increase pressure on the pound and set off a drop towards 1.3850 and 1.3780.
Author's today's articles: Vyacheslav Ognev  Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Mihail Makarov  - Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Vladislav Tukhmenev  Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up." Pavel Vlasov  No data
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