Axios Sports: Future of football — Sweet 16 is set — RIP, Elgin

1 big thing: 🧠 The future of CTE and football | Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Open in app View in browser     Axios Sports By Kendall Baker ·Mar 23, 2021 👋 Good morning! Let's sports. Today's word count: 1,762 words (7 minutes).     1 big thing: 🧠 The future of CTE and football Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Scientists have produced the first consensus criteria to diagnose chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) in living people. The state of play: As of now, CTE can only be diagnosed after death. But a new paper, written by over 20 scientists, is a step toward a "biomarker" that could definitively say whether a living person has the disease. "It's a game-changer for the future. We're really not at the point of being able to diagnose CTE during life. We're getting much closer, and this new paper is an important step forward." — Robert Stern, director of clinical research at Boston University, via WashPost Why it matters: The closer scientists get to being able to detect CTE during life, the closer the existential threat to contact sports, namely football, becomes. What happens when an active NFL player finds out he has CTE? Will he retire? What happens when numerous players find out? Scariest of all, what if a 15-year-old football player is diagnosed with CTE? Should youth football even continue? Of note: Flag football is on the rise due to safety concerns around kids starting tackle football too early. But roughly 1.4 million kids ages 6 to 12 still played tackle as of 2018. The backdrop: The brains of deceased NFL players like Junior Seau and Ken Stabler have been donated to science so CTE could be confirmed, and the results are alarming. Eye-opening stat: Ann McKee, a neuropathologist, examined the brains of 111 deceased NFL players. All but one had CTE. The NFL has responded by making the game safer through rule changes and equipment upgrades, and America's love affair with football has continued largely unabated. 71 of the 100 most-watched broadcasts of 2020 were NFL games, and just last week the league nearly doubled its already massive TV deals. Ann McKee announces her findings on her examination of Aaron Hernandez's brain in 2017. Photo: John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images Between the lines: The exact cause of CTE remains unclear, but we do know that it can be detected at an early age and spread rather quickly. Tyler Hilinski, the former Washington State QB who died by suicide, had Stage 1 CTE. He was 20. Aaron Hernandez, who killed himself in his prison cell, had Stage 3 CTE, which researchers had never seen in a brain under 46 years old. Hernandez was 27. The big picture: As scary as CTE is to read about, that's mostly what we've done: read about it. What happens when we see it? The reality of this disease has been conveyed mostly through studies and tragic stories told by family members of the deceased. What happens when we know people who have it? What happens when we hear them talk about it and see them suffering from it? The bottom line, via The Nation's Dave Zirin: "The days of plausible deniability — by the NFL, by players, and by fans — will be coming to a screeching halt in the next several years." The National Suicide Prevention Lifeline (1-800-273-8255) provides 24/7, free and confidential support for anyone in distress, in addition to prevention and crisis resources. Also available for online chat.     2. 🏀 Men's tourney: The Sweet 16 is set Luka Garza wore his Iowa jersey for the final time on Monday. Photo: Jack Dempsey/NCAA Photos via Getty Images   For the first time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and UNC are all missing from the Sweet 16. Monday's scores: Higher seed won: No. 1 Gonzaga def. No. 8 Oklahoma, 87-71; No. 11 UCLA def. No. 14 Abilene Christian, 67-47; No. 5 Creighton def. No. 13 Ohio, 72-58; No. 1 Michigan def. No. 8 LSU, 86-78; No. 4 FSU def. No. 5 Colorado, 71-53; No. 2 Alabama def. No. 10 Maryland, 96-77 Lower seed won: No. 7 Oregon def. No. 2 Iowa, 95-80; No. 6 USC def. No. 3 Kansas, 85-51 Notes: Farewell, legend: Luka Garza (36 points in Iowa's loss) finishes his career with 2,306 points, seventh-most in Big Ten history. His college legacy speaks for itself, but his NBA future is murky. Jayhawks blowout: Kansas' 34-point loss is the third-worst in school history, and the worst since they lost to Kentucky by 37 in 1974. Conference of champions: The Pac-12 has four of the final 16 teams, twice as many as any other league. Meanwhile, the Big Ten and Big 12 have the same number as the Summit League (one). Source: @jloose128 (Twitter) Wild stat: The combined seeds in this year's Sweet 16 add up to 94, eclipsing the record of 89 set in 1986. For reference, the combined seeds in 2019 added up to just 49. Midwest: No. 8 Loyola Chicago vs. No. 12 Oregon State; No. 2 Houston vs. No. 11 Syracuse South: No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 5 Villanova; No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts East: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 FSU; No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 11 UCLA West: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 5 Creighton; No. 6 USC vs. No. 7 Oregon 🎥 Watch: Garza's emotional exit (Twitter)     3. 🏀 Women's tourney: Upsets on Day 2 Giphy Mid-majors brought the drama on Day 2 of the women's tournament after Day 1 was all chalk. The state of play: For the first time since 2004, a No. 13, No. 12 and No. 11 seed have all advanced to the second round. No. 13 Wright State def. No. 4 Arkansas, 66-62 No. 12 Belmont def. No. 5 Gonzaga, 64-59 No. 11 BYU def. No. 6 Rutgers, 69-66 Notes: Near upset: No. 15 Troy nearly upset No. 2 Texas A&M before falling 84-80 after a controversial non-call on the final possession. Star of the day: Alabama's Jordan Lewis went off against UNC, finishing with 32 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Rough quarter: No. 11 South Dakota scored one point in the second-quarter against No. 6 Oregon, and they were nearly shut out. The lone bucket was a free throw with four seconds remaining. Jordan Lewis. Photo: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images Today's slate ... Four of the five AP First-Team All-Americans are in action: Kentucky's Rhyne Howard, Baylor's NaLyssa Smith, South Carolina's Aliyah Boston and UConn's Paige Bueckers. Late afternoon: No. 1 NC State vs. No. 8 USF, 3pm ET; No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 5 Iowa, 3:30pm Evening: No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Michigan, 5pm; No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 5 Georgia Tech, 5:30pm Night: No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 7 Virginia Tech, 7pm; No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 8 Oregon State, 7pm Late night: No. 1 UConn vs. No. 8 Syracuse, 9pm; No. 1 Stanford vs. No. 8 Oklahoma State, 9pm 📚 Good read: Why doesn't the women's tournament get to use the term "March Madness?" It's a pretty fascinating story, per WSJ (subscription).     A message from Axios Your new morning habit     Start your morning with Axios Today. Hear the latest scoops from the White House and Congress, analysis on the economy and insights into trends shaping your world. In 10 minutes, you'll catch up on today's news that matters. Listen for free.     4. ⚾️ MLB starters set for huge innings increase Data: FanGraphs; Chart: Axios Visuals MLB starting pitchers, coming off a mere 60-game campaign, are preparing for an unprecedented year-to-year jump in innings pitched, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes. Why it matters: In order to minimize that increase, teams will need to get creative with their pitching staffs or else risk a rash of injuries. By the numbers: After the top 10 leaders in innings pitched averaged well over 200 innings 2011–2019, that number dropped to just 77 last year, leaving 2021 as something of a mystery. "It's gonna be an issue," Brewers manager Craig Counsell told ESPN (subscription). "We're all gonna have to figure out what's the best way to keep our guys healthy, and I don't think there's one answer for every pitcher." The big picture: Young pitchers and bullpens may ultimately be impacted the most by this year-to-year workload increase, so staff depth should be at an even bigger premium than usual. For untested arms, the rule of thumb is a 30–40% IP increase, which would normally mean increasing from ~120 to 162 IP but this year could be more like 60–80. Anything much more than that risks serious long-term issues, so bullpens will have to pick up the slack. Relievers have accounted for an increasing number of innings in recent years, jumping from 36.7% of innings in 2016 to 44.5% in 2020 as starters' leashes got shorter. Add this season's workload concern to that trend and reaching 50% isn't out of the question. Between the lines: Injuries already skyrocketed last year due to the herky-jerky start, with nearly as many non-COVID-19 IL stints by pitchers in 2020 (197) as in the previous two full seasons combined (235). Coming on the heels of that, teams have even more reason to handle their hurlers with care. The bottom line: 2020, 1994 and 1981 (all shortened) are the only years in which the league leader in innings pitched failed to top 200. This year is poised to become the first full season to join them. Go deeper: Opening Day starter tracker (CBS)     5. 🌎 Photos across America Photo: Harry How/Getty Images PASADENA, Calif. — The Pasadena High School Bulldogs (red) are playing their pandemic-shortened season at the Rose Bowl. Pretty cool. Photo: Jamie Squire/Getty Images INDIANAPOLIS — Houston's Quentin Grimes soars for the dunk, resulting in my favorite photo from Indy so far. Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images NEWARK, N.J. — Puck's in the net, fellas.     6. 🌍 Photos around the world Photo: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images SYDNEY, Australia — The National Rugby League season is underway in rain-soaked Australia, where thousands have been evacuated due to a "once in 100 years" flood. Stay safe, Aussie readers. Photo: Jan Woitas/Picture Alliance via Getty Images KLINGENTHAL, Germany — Ski jumping photos get me every time. Highlights, too. Photo: Harry Murphy/Sportsfile via Getty Images DOWNPATRICK, Northern Ireland — Yikes.     7. ⚡️ Lightning round Photo: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images   🏈 Deshaun Watson is now facing 13 sexual misconduct lawsuits, accusing him of a range of actions during massage appointments, including forced oral sex. Watson has denied all allegations. 💔 Katherine Díaz, a 22-year-old Olympic surfing hopeful, died after being struck by lightning on Friday while training for a qualifying event. 🏈 The NFL draft will return as an in-person event this year, with festivities taking place in downtown Cleveland from April 29 to May 1. Fans and a "select number" of draft-eligible players are slated to attend. 🏀 The Rockets won a basketball game, snapping their 20-game losing streak. 🏒 The Sabres lost another hockey game, extending their winless streak to 14 games (0-12-2).     8. 📆 March 23, 1991: World Football kicks off The Frankfurt Galaxy. Photo: Ruediger Fessel/Borngarts via Getty Images   30 years ago today, the World League of American Football, the first transatlantic sports league, began its inaugural season. The backdrop: In 1989, the NFL voted to launch the WLAF, thought up by then-commissioner Paul Tagliabue as a developmental spring league. Owners paid $50,000 each for the league's startup costs and players were mostly top prospects who couldn't quite break into the NFL. Notable alumni: Three Super Bowl QBs (Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme and Brad Johnson), two of the best special teams players ever (Dante Hall and Adam Vinatieri) and five-time Pro Bowler James Harrison. Format and teams: 10 teams were broken into three divisions and played a 10-game regular season. Three division winners and a wild card made the playoffs, consisting of a semifinal round and the annual World Bowl. European: London Monarchs (inaugural champs), Barcelona Dragons (runner-up), Frankfurt Galaxy North American East: New York/New Jersey Knights, Orlando Thunder, Montreal Machine, Raleigh-Durham Skyhawks North American West: Birmingham Fire, San Antonio Riders, Sacramento Surge The big picture: Attendance in Europe was strong, but it never caught on stateside. After just two seasons, the WLAF took a hiatus before being reimagined as NFL Europe, which ultimately disbanded in 2007.     9. 🏀 NBA trivia Elgin Baylor after scoring 71 points againt the Knicks in 1960. Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images   Elgin Baylor, who died Monday at age 86, is one of just four players in NBA history to average 25 points and 10 rebounds for his career. Question: Who are the other three players? Hint: All three have an "e" in their last name. Answer at the bottom.     10. 🎥 Monday's top plays Photo: Gualter Fatia/Getty Images   ⚽️ Insane goal 🏀 Oop, there it is! 🏀 360 layup 🏒 Epic save ⚾️ Triple play Watch all 5.     A message from Axios Your new morning habit     Start your morning with Axios Today. Hear the latest scoops from the White House and Congress, analysis on the economy and insights into trends shaping your world. In 10 minutes, you'll catch up on today's news that matters. Listen for free.   Talk tomorrow, Kendall "Tacos and women's hoops on the menu tonight" Baker Trivia answer: Wilt Chamberlain, Bob Pettit, Karl Malone Invite friends to follow Axios Sports Use your personal link to track how many readers you bring into the community You currently have 00 referrals. Share with a friend or use your personal referral link https://www.axios.com/referral/sports?code=BbTjEdwGLRoN For questions email referralsupport@axios.com. 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