| Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 25, 2021 2021-02-25 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair had made a new local high at the level of 1.2182 (at the time of writing the article) as the bulls are pushing higher to break out from the narrow range seen between the levels of 1.2135 - 1.2166. The last attempt to break through this zone was a failure, so bulls need to break through if they want to continue the up trend towards 1.2284, which is the next target for them. The intraday support is seen at the level of 1.2163, 1.2154 and 1.2135 and the next technical support is seen at 1.2109 and 1.2088. Any violation of the old 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2035 will invalidate the bullish scenario. The weekly time frame trend is still up and intact. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2336 WR2 - 1.2251 WR1 - 1.2185 Weekly Pivot - 1.2101 WS1 - 1.2042 WS2 - 1.1960 WS3 - 1.1894 Trading Recommendations: Any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken, because since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2175 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 25, 2021 2021-02-25 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.4098, which is the intraday technical support and is currently heading higher again. The first target for bulls is the old swing high seen at 1.4223. Nevertheless, there are some signs of incoming correction due to the extremely overbought market conditions, so please keep an eye on the intraday technical support seen at 1.4098 and the local technical support located at the level of 1.4143. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support seen at the level of 1.3982. The higher time frame trend is still up and the potential correction is only an internal corrective cycle inside of the up trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4313 WR2 - 1.4176 WR1 - 1.4112 Weekly Pivot - 1.3970 WS1 - 1.3906 WS2 - 1.3764 WS3 - 1.3698 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4050 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for February 25, 2021 2021-02-25 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market from the level of 1.2164 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), may continue to move up with the target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, it is possible to continue working up with a target of 1.2275 – the 85.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- Volumes - up;
- Candlestick analysis - up;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger bands - up;
- Weekly chart - up.
General conclusion: Today, the market from the level of 1.2164 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), may continue to move up with the target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue working up with a target of 1.2275 – the 85.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.2164 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may continue to move up with the target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, it is possible to work downwards with a target of 1.2172 – the 38.2% retracement level (red dotted line). Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 25. New wave of COVID-19? Euro bulls are trying to push the price up. 2021-02-25 
COVID-19 incidents increased again yesterday. Most of the cases came from France, Italy and the Czech Republic. Perhaps, this growth is a sign for a new pandemic wave. Fortunately, vaccines against the virus are already available, albeit insufficient at the moment. So far, only US and Britain are making every effort to accelerate vaccination. But in case this is indeed a new pandemic wave, governments and citizens will surely change their attitude towards vaccination. 
EUR/USD: Euro traded downwards amid optimism brought by Jerome Powell's congressional speech. Now, the euro seems to be ready for a new wave of growth. Open long positions from 1.2145 to 1.2089. Open short positions from 1.2085 to 1.2130. A report on US employment will be released today at 13:30 GMT. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 25. COT reports. Euro buyers do not want to let the market out of their hands. Aim for resistance at 1.2178 2021-02-25 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: No signals for entering the market yesterday afternoon. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that the bears tried to fall below the 1.2135 level, but there was no normal entry point to the market. As a result, I had to ignore the downward movement in the middle of the US session, which then resulted in active purchases of the euro at new lows. By the end of the day, the pair was in the resistance area of 1.2178 again. At the same time, trade is being conducted at the time of this writing. All this speaks in favor of bulls, which will continue to focus on surpassing 1.2178. 
Fundamental reports that are not too important will be released in the first half of the day: the consumer confidence indicator and the volume of lending to the private sector of the eurozone are unlikely to seriously affect the market. However, in case we receive good indicators, one can count on the euro's succeeding growth. A breakout and being able to test the 1.2178 area from top to bottom creates an excellent signal to open long positions with the purpose of rising towards the area of the 1.2220 high, where I recommend taking profits. Another challenge is to update resistance at 1.2260. If the data does not meet economists expectations, then it is best for buyers to focus on protecting support at 1.2136. Forming a false breakout in that area creates a good entry point to long positions in hopes to continue the upward trend. If bulls are not active at this level, I recommend holding back from long positions until a low like 1.2093 has been tested, from where you can open long positions in EUR/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: The bears made an attempt to fall below the 1.2135 level yesterday and it seems that they managed to do so. However, the downward correction did not continue, which forced traders to quickly leave the market. I recommend opening short positions against the upward trend this morning in case a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.2178. Returning to the area below 1.2136 and testing it from the bottom up creates another point for entering the market with short positions in hopes to pull down EUR/USD. The breakdown of 1.2135 should weigh on EUR/USD and push the pair to the support area of 1.2093, where I recommend taking profits. The market's succeeding direction depends on this level, so a breakthrough of this range will lead to a reversal of the upward trend. If the euro is in demand in the first half of the day, and the bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2178, then it is best to hold back from short positions until the test of a new high of 1.2220, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound for the purpose of pulling it down by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2260. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 16 revealed that there were no significant changes in the positions of large players, which once again indicates the temporary equilibrium of the pair before a new wave of growth this spring. The major decline from the previous week was won back, and this confirms the theory that the demand for the US dollar continues to decrease among investors. Therefore, a more correct approach to the market is to buy the euro for the medium term. A good factor for the euro would be the moment when European countries begin to actively roll back quarantine and isolation measures, and the services sector will start working in full force again, which will lead to an improved economic outlook and also strengthen the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 220,943 to 222,895, while short non-commercial positions rose from 80,721 to 82,899. As a result, the total non-commercial net position slightly narrowed after rising to 140,006 from 140,222. The weekly closing price was 1.2132 against 1.2052 a week earlier, which indicates the presence of buyers in the market. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out just above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the buyers' attempt to continue growth. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.2184 will lead to a new wave growth for the euro. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2125. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 25. COT reports. Bears hit the pound, but failed to keep the market under their control 2021-02-25 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Quite a lot of signals to enter the market appeared yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and talk about where the pound could and should have been sold. In my morning forecast I drew attention to resistance at 1.4186 and advised you to act based on this level. The chart clearly shows how the bears are forming a false breakout at 1.4186 and bringing the pair back under this range. This level was initially tested from the bottom up, which creates a signal to open short positions. But even if you did not orient yourself, the pound was significantly under pressure after this area was tested again. As a result, the bears got their way, pulling the pound to support 1.4119, where I recommended taking profits. The downward movement was more than 50 points. A small rebound from the 1.4119 level led to a correction by 20 points, however, it was not possible to wait for a signal to enter the market there. The bears managed to surpass 1.4119 in the afternoon. Testing it from the bottom up created another sell signal. And although the pair did not reach the target va 
Important fundamental statistics on the UK will not be released today, so buyers of the pound can count on the succeeding strengthening of the pair. The optimal scenario for opening long positions in continuing the bull market is to form a false breakout in the support area of 1.4119, just below which the moving averages pass, playing on the side of buyers. In this case, we can expect a new wave of growth for the pound and a return to the 1.4186 area, above which it was not possible to break through yesterday. The pair's succeeding growth depends on whether the price can surpass this level. A breakout and being able to test it from top to bottom will lead to creating a new signal to open long positions in order to update 1.4241, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be the high at 1.4324. If buyers are not active around 1.4119, then I recommend postponing long positions until the 1.4055 low has been tested, from which you can buy the pound immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The next level to buy is seen in the area of 1.3983, testing it will mean a reversal of the upward trend. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The initial task of the bears is to regain control of support at 1.4119, which they missed yesterday afternoon. However, it is clear that this will not be so easy, given the strong bullish momentum that we are currently seeing. Getting the pair to settle below this level and testing it on the reverse side (similar to selling, which I analyzed above) can create a signal to open short positions in order to pull down the pair to the 1.4055 area, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be the 1.3983 level. In case GBP/USD grows in the first half of the day, it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for a false breakout in the 1.4186 area (similar to the first sell signal, which I analyzed a little higher on the 5-minute chart). I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound but only from a high of 1.4241, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 16 revealed a reduction in both long and short commercial positions. Despite this, the bulls break through to new highs each time, taking advantage of the good news on vaccinations in the UK and good fundamentals, indicating economic growth even during the lockdown. The news that the UK will resort to easing quarantine measures in March will further fuel investors' interest in the pound. Long non-commercial positions fell from 60,513 to 60,269. At the same time, short non-commercial positions fell from 39,395 to 38,102, which kept the market bullish. As a result, the non-commercial net position rose to 22,167 from 21,118 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3914 against 1.3745. Any downward corrections with an immediate buy-back of the pound once again proves the presence of large players in the market. Constant updates of local highs and consolidation on them will contribute to the bullish trend that we have been observing since the beginning of February this year. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates some uncertainty regarding the pair's succeeding direction. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the channel at 1.4165 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.4085 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
AUD/USD. Federal Reserve Service Failure, US Dollar's Minute of Glory, and Magnificent Australian Dollar 2021-02-25 The US dollar index in the Asian session today pierced again the psychologically important support level of 90.00, falling to the area of the 89th figure. Yesterday's strengthening of the greenback was too short-lived: the correction lasted no more than an hour, after which the situation returned to normal. The immediate reason for the corrective growth of the currency was a sharp increase in the yield of treasuries. However, experts attribute the unexpected jump in the greenback to another event. Yesterday, there was a serious failure in the computer system of the Federal Reserve. This failure affected the system of applications on which the work of American banks, companies, and federal institutions depends. According to the American media, technical problems affected the work of services that provide the process of clearing checks and allow multi-billion-dollar payments to pass through the financial system every day. On average, these services process almost 900 thousand transactions per day, the daily volume of which is about 3-3.5 trillion dollars. The system handles direct deposits of wages, social security, and income tax refunds, as well as automatic payments on mortgages and utility bills. After the failure was detected, a message was posted on the official website of the Federal Reserve about the occurrence of an "emergency situation in several service areas." This fact provoked a surge in risk-off sentiment, against which the dollar began to enjoy increased demand. But after a few hours, the failure was eliminated, life returned to normal, and the greenback was again hit by a wave of sales. 
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell only increased the pressure on the US currency, continuing his two-day speech to Congress. Basically, he repeated the theses that were announced on Tuesday. The essence of his rhetoric was that the US economy slowed significantly after growth last summer: the main indicators in the field of the labor market and inflation are alarming, so it is too early to talk about the imminent curtailment of monetary stimulus, despite the growth in treasury yields. The head of the Federal Reserve focused again yesterday on the fact that the regulator will first of all assess the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators –and simultaneously applying an integrated approach (for example, the strengthening of the labor market alone will not serve as a reason for tightening monetary policy). In other words, Powell made it very clear that the US economy is still very far from reaching the target levels – both in the field of the labor market and inflation. Therefore, the current parameters of monetary policy can only be changed in the direction of easing. The statement of this fact increased the pressure on the greenback, which had previously demonstrated its vulnerability. In turn, the Australian dollar continues to gain momentum, receiving support from both the main macroeconomic reports and other fundamental factors. The Australian labor market is recovering at a faster pace (compared to last year's RBA forecasts), inflation indicators are also coming out in the "green zone," while the number of people suffering from coronavirus has fallen below the 2-thousand mark (with a 25-million population of the country). On Monday, a vaccination campaign was launched in Australia, which is planned to be completed in the fall. An additional factor supporting the Australian dollar is the commodity market. Iron ore is trading above the $160 mark (for comparison: last year, the price of a ton of iron ore fluctuated in the range of $80-120), and according to experts' forecasts, it will grow to the $200 level in 2021. Analysts believe that the recovery of the Chinese economy may lead to the fact that steel prices in the domestic market of its largest consumer will exceed record highs. In turn, things will lead to an increase in demand for imported steel, which will lead to a new increase in world prices. 
Thus, the prevailing fundamental background continues to support the Australian dollar, while the US dollar continues to be under significant pressure. The general risk appetite, the "dovish" comments of the head of the Federal Reserve and weak macroeconomic reports do not allow dollar bulls to turn the situation in their favor. In other words, the northern trend of AUD/USD is still in force. From a technical point of view, the pair on all the higher time frames (from H4 and above) is either on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, or between the middle and upper lines, which indicates the priority of the north direction. On the timeframes of H4 to W1 (except for the monthly chart), the Ichimoku indicator has formed a bullish signal "Line Parade," when the price is above all the indicator lines, including the Kumo cloud. This signal indicates bullish sentiment. The strongest resistance level is at 0.8030 - this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart. It is important for buyers to overcome this target in order to gain a foothold within the 80th figure and identify further prospects. But here, it is necessary to consider that when approaching the 0.8000 mark, the pair may slow down and go for a correction – which can also be used to open longs. Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 25, 2021 2021-02-25 Yesterday, both the euro and the pound swung from side to side. Their movements generally coincide, except for the time that the pound reached another multi-year high at the opening of the Asian session. Afterwards, it was very similar again. Both currencies were systematically declining during the European session, but after it closed, they sharply rose again. It should be noted that there were simply no reasons for such fluctuations, as there were almost no macroeconomic data. The only data released was US new home sales, which increased by 4.3%. However, these data are not very important and the market always ignores them. And so it happened yesterday. At the time of their publication, the market observed a stop in the decline of European currencies, which was followed by growth. Meanwhile, one cannot even grasp the countless speeches of the Fed representatives, which were actually surprisingly impersonal. In fact, the US regulator did not say anything. It was just filled with neutral and meaningless words. New Home Sales (United States): 
Today, there will be a more eventful macroeconomic calendar. It is possible that the least interesting will be the publication of the second estimate of the US GDP in the fourth quarter. It should only confirm the first estimate, which showed a slowdown in the rate of economic decline from -2.8% to -2.5%. But this is already expected by the market. On the other hand, durable goods orders are forecasted to rise by 1.2%, which assures to turn into further growth in retail sales. It can be agreed that we will have good and promising news. In addition, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits may decline from 861 thousand to 810 thousand, while repeated applications may also do so from 4, 494 thousand to 4, 400 thousand. Overall, there are extremely optimistic forecasts for US macroeconomic statistics. However, the massive speculative hype may cause the market to probably ignore all these data. In any case, the Euro currency may further rise. This is indicated by the pound's behavior, which initially rose to the next high, slightly rebounded, and then resumed its growth. There is no question of any reduction. Durable Goods Orders (United States): 
The EUR/USD pair approached the resistance area of 1.2180/1.2190 again, where a reduction in the volume of long positions occurs on a regular basis. We can assume that if the previous pattern repeats, the quote will rebound again towards the level of 1.2130. An alternative scenario of the market development will be considered if the price holds above the level of 1.2200. 
The GBP/USD pair still moves within the medium-term trend high, regardless of its high overbought status. Speculative hype relative to the long positions may reappear in the market once the current high of 1.4224 is updated. Moving in an upward trend, one should be prepared for a sharp change in trading interest in the case of high trading volumes. 
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 25, 2021 2021-02-25 
EUR/JPY is now testing the 129.06 target and we should expect a temporary correction/consolidation before the next push higher towards 130.01 as the next minor upside target. Longer-term we continue to look for much higher levels at the unfolding uptrend gathers upside momentum. Support is currently located in the 128.15 - 128.42 area. R3: 130.01 R2: 129.84 R1: 129.38 Pivot: 129.06 S1: 128.85 S2: 128.67 S3: 128.35 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 125.85 with our stop placed at 126.85 Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 25, 2021 2021-02-25 
GBP/JPY is testing the next minor upside target near 150.28 which we expect will be able to cap the upside temporarily for a correction into the support-area between 146.41 - 147.72 from where a new impulsive rally higher to 154.99 is expected. Short-term we see minor support at 149.15 and a break below here, will indicate that blue wave iii/ has peaked and a correction/consolidation in blue wave iv/ is evolving. R3: 152.70 R2: 151.87 R1: 150.64 Pivot: 150.28 S1: 149.79 S2: 149.15 S3: 148.84 Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 142.27 and we will raise our stop to 149.10.
Author's today's articles: Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Mihail Makarov  - Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Alexandr Davidov  No data Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets.
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