Thursday, December 31, 2020

👉 2021: Inflation or Deflation?; Quiet Bull Market Erupting in One Tiny Sector

Good morning. Over 30 percent of all money created in the United States occurred in 2020.
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.
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Good morning. Over 30 percent of all money created in the United States occurred in 2020. That massive jump in the money supply, dubbed M1, leads several to expect inflation. It's why assets like gold and Bitcoin performed well in 2020. But the flip side is that economic shutdowns led to less spending, missed rent payments, and other spending. That creates deflationary pressures. Anyone living in New York or San Francisco can point to dropping home values as the population heads for less dense living in the suburbs—or other states.

The biggest trend of 2021 may be the push and pull between inflation and deflation. Of course, given how long an economic recovery can take, that trend may not be fully apparent until 2022—and 2021 may surprise investors with how boring it was after 2020's excitement.


Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 30,409.56 +0.24%
S&P 3,732.04 +0.13%
NASDAQ 12,870.00 +0.15%
*As of market close
The stock market inched higher on Wednesday, with all indices slightly up.
Oil rose 0.6 percent, closing at $48.27 per barrel.
Gold rallied 0.8 percent, ending at $1,897 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies generally rose, with Bitcoin last trading at $28,671.

Today's TOP TIPS
A Blue-Chip Play Still Under Pre-Pandemic Highs
The stock market's solid run this year has allowed companies to quickly shake off one of the fastest and steepest bear markets in history. A number of companies rightly remain below their pre-pandemic highs. But outside of airlines, cruise ships, and theater chains, a few other plays have likewise struggled.

One of the top blue-chip manufacturing plays, which produces thousands of products has been a laggard here.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: IQVIA Holdings (IQV)
John Danhakl, a director at IQVIA Holdings (IQV), recently started a stake at the company with 63,451 shares. The total cost of the buy came to just over $11.2 million.

This marks the first buy from a company insider since August. Over the past three years, company insiders have largely been sellers. In 2020, those sales have largely been by major owners and directors, rather than C-suite executives.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Snap Inc (SNAP)
Social media play Snap Inc (SNAP) has seen its shares surge to new all-time highs earlier this week. So it's no surprise that at least one trader sees the company heading higher.

That's based on the January 8th 2021 $57 call. Expiring in 8 days, the bet is that shares, trading near $52.40, will rally another 8.7 percent. Over 10,200 of the contracts traded against a prior open interest of 111, for a 92-fold rise in volume.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
The DOL anticipates no lapse in unemployment benefits despite the delay in the bill signing.
The Trump administration appeals a court order blocking restrictions in China-owned TikTok.
Small businesses are finally starting to get business-interruption payments from insurers.
Customers flocked to new spices and sauces amidst rising cook-from-home trends this year.
They also flocked to cannabis, which had a strong year at the ballot box, and for ecommerce.
Tencent invests in healthcare portal DXY as it completes a $500 million round.
Nearly half of HBO Max subscribers watched Wonder Woman 1984 on its first day of streaming.
Streaming services are likely to increase features in 2021, further diminishing theaters.
Tesla is set to sell its cars in India next year.
Fashion designer Pierre Cardin dies at 98.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
BIDU 12.59%
FCX 7.235%
DVN 5.421%
FANG 4.83%
M 4.518%
BOTTOM
AES 2.274%
AKAM 1.931%
FB 1.774%
CHTR 1.728%
UPS 1.657%

Quote of the Day
The combination of vaccine rollouts, fiscal stimulus, and easy monetary policy continues to create a positive backdrop for equities going into 2021. The agreement on a fresh U.S. fiscal stimulus package removes a recent hurdle, and global central banks continue to support the recovery by maintaining (and extending) monetary accommodation.
- Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, on the trends likely to push stocks higher in the first quarter of 2021.

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Watch his 32-second options trading "training video" here.


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