Friday, September 18, 2020

FX Strategy 18 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 18 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NZD and NOK are the top gainers today, up 0.62% and 0.28% versus the dollar while GBP and USD are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The German 10-year was trading at -0.482, up 1.0bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.193, up 0.6bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.689, flat 0.0bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.007, flat 0.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading firm today. The Hang Seng was trading at 24444.25, up 0.42%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23360.3, up 0.18%. The Kospi was trading at 2412.4, up 0.26%. In the European equities, indices were trading weaker today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3315.65, down -0.03%. The DAX 30 was trading at 13206.4, down -0.01%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6030.85, down -0.32%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3352.62, down -0.26%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3304.0, down -0.51%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6004.0, down -0.92%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading firm today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 43.79, up 1.13%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 41.46, up 1.2%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already had August German PPI MoM (Actual 0% v Forecast 0.1%) and YoY (Actual -1.2% v Forecast -1.4%). We have also seen UK Retail Sales data for August with YoY (Actual 2.8% v Forecast 2.9%), MoM (Actual 0.8% v Forecast 0.5%), ex Fuel MoM (Actual 0.6% v Forecast 0.3%) and ex Fuel YoY (Actual 0.6% v Forecast 0.3%). This morning we have ECB's Guindos speaking at 09:15 GMT and Russian Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 GMT (Previous 4.25% v Forecast 4%).

 

This afternoon we have Canadian July data at 12:30 GMT, with Retail Sales MoM (Previous 23.7% v Forecast 0.7%), YoY (Previous 3.8% v Forecast 3.5%), Ex Autos MoM (Previous 15.7% v Forecast 0.6%) and Wholesale Sales MoM (Previous 18.5% v Forecast 2.5%). At 12:30 GMT US Current Account Q2 (Previous $-104.2B v Forecast $-150B) will be released. At 14:00 GMT we have September US Michigan data with Current Conditions Prel (Previous 82.9 v Forecast 82), Inflation Expectations Prel (Previous 3.1% v Forecast 3.2%), 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel (Previous 2.7% v Forecast 2.8%), Consumer Sentiment Prel (Previous 74.1 v Forecast 75) and Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (Previous 68.5 v Forecast 68).

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1813 for 1.1888
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1813 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1888 enter at 1.1838. Below 1.1813 to open 1.1773

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2947 for 1.3029
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.2947 and we see a rise to 1.3029 enter at 1.2974. Below 1.2947 to open 1.2891

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 104.82 for 104.46
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 104.82 and we see a dip to 104.46 enter at 104.7. Above 104.82 to open 105.11

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7294 for 0.7356
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7294 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7356 enter at 0.7314. Below 0.7294 to open 0.7272

 
 
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