Thursday, September 17, 2020

FX Strategy 17 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 17 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and USD are the top gainers today while NOK and NZD are the top losers, down -0.82% and -0.64% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.012, down -0.4bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.496, down -1.5bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.202, down -1.5bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.674, down -2.4bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading weak today. The Kospi was trading at 2406.17, down -1.22%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23319.37, down -0.67%. The Hang Seng was trading at 24312.75, down -1.67%. In the European equities, indices were trading weaker today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3292.85, down -1.38%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6016.84, down -1.01%. The DAX 30 was trading at 13068.85, down -1.41%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3282.0, down -1.56%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3327.62, down -1.83%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5983.8, down -1.59%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 41.66, down -1.33%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 39.55, down -1.52%.

 

Today we have already seen Australian Employment data for August with Employment Change (Actual 111K v Forecast -40K), Unemployment Rate (Actual 6.8% v Forecast 7.7%) and Participation Rate (Actual 64.8% v Forecast 64.8%). Bank of Japan also held Interest Rates at -0.1%.This morning we have ECB's Guindos speaking at 08:00 GMT. We also have Euro Area Construction Output for July (Previous -5.9% v Forecast -4.2%), Core Inflation Rate YoY Final for August (Previous 1.2% v Forecast 0.4%) and Inflation Rate YoY Final for August (Previous 0.4% v Forecast -0.2%) which are all released at 09:00 GMT. At 11:00 GMT we have the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, with unchanged from 0.1% expected and the MPC Minutes will follow.

 

This afternoon we look forward to weekly US Initial Jobless (Previous 884K v Forecast 830K) and Continuing Claims (Previous 13385K v Forecast 13500K) alongside August US Housing Starts (Previous 1.496M v Forecast 1.4M), Building Permits (Previous 1.483M v Forecast 1.5M) and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September (Previous 17.2 v Forecast 13) which are all released at 12:30 GMT. At 13:00 GMT we expected unchanged Interest Rate Decision from South Africa. This evening at 23:30 GMT we have Japan Inflation Rate YoY for August (Previous 0.3% v Forecast 0.1%).

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1829 for 1.1734
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1829 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1734 enter at 1.1798. Above 1.1829 to open 1.187

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2892 for 1.3025
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.2892 and we see a rise to 1.3025 enter at 1.2936. Below 1.2892 to open 1.2818

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 105.06 for 104.43
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 105.06 and we see a dip to 104.43 enter at 104.85. Above 105.06 to open 105.33

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.731 for 0.7242
Short-term view: AUDUSD resistance comes in at 0.731 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 0.7242 enter at 0.7288. Above 0.731 to open 0.7341

 
 
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