Thursday, September 3, 2020

FX Strategy 03 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 03 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, USD and JPY are the top gainers today while NOK and GBP are the top losers, down -0.54% and -0.52% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The US 10-year was trading at 0.661, up 1.3bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.032, down -0.4bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.227, down -0.8bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.483, down -1.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23465.53, up 0.94%. The Kospi was trading at 2395.9, up 1.33%. The Hang Seng was trading at 25024.5, down -0.38%. In the European equities, indices were trading stronger today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13380.35, up 1.03%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5991.67, up 0.85%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3380.75, up 1.29%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far,The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5992.8, up 0.95%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3380.0, up 1.56%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3576.62, down -0.07%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weak today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 41.36, down -0.36%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 44.16, down -0.61%.

 

Today we have already had Australian Balance of Trade data for July (Actual A$4.607B v Forecast A$5B) and Caixin Services PMI from China for August (Actual 55.1 v Forecast 53.7). We have also had economic data from Turkey with their Inflation Rate YoY for August (Actual 11.77% v Forecast 12.1%) and PPI YoY for the same period (Actual 11.53% v Forecast 10.7%).

 

This morning we also have Markit Services and Composite PMI Finals data (August) for Spain, France, Germany, Euro Area (EA) and the UK between 07:15 and 08:30 GMT. At 09:00 GMT we look forward to EA Retail Sales data for July with YoY (Previous 1.3% v Forecast 3.7%) and MoM (Previous 5.7% v Forecast 1.8%).

 

This afternoon we have Brazilian Industrial Production data for July, with MoM (Previous 8.9% v Forecast 6%) and YoY (Previous -9% v Forecast -7%) being released at 12:00 GMT. At 12:30 GMT we have Canadian Balance of Trade for July (Previous C$-3.19B v Forecast C$-2.3B) alongside US Balance of Trade for July (Previous $-50.7B v Forecast $-59) and weekly US Initial Jobless (Previous 1006K v Forecast 995K) and US Continuing Claims (Previous 14535K v Forecast 14150K). At 14:00 GMT we have BoE's Governor Bailey speaking alongside August data releases for US ISM Non-Manufacturing (Previous 67.2 v Forecast 63), Manufacturing Prices (Previous 57.6 v Forecast 55), New Orders (Previous 67.7 v Forecast 58), Manufacturing Employment (Previous 42.1 v Forecast 42) and Manufacturing PMI (Previous 58.1 v Forecast 56.5). ECB's Schnabel and Fed's Evans are speaking at 15:00 GMT and 17:00 GMT respectively.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1869 for 1.1762
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1869 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1762 enter at 1.1834. Above 1.1869 to open 1.1915

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.3346 for 1.3226
Short-term view: GBPUSD resistance comes in at 1.3346 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.3226 enter at 1.3306. Above 1.3346 to open 1.3409

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.92 for 106.57
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 105.92 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 106.57 enter at 106.13. Below 105.92 to open 105.66

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7341 for 0.726
Short-term view: AUDUSD resistance comes in at 0.7341 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 0.726 enter at 0.7314. Above 0.7341 to open 0.738

 
 
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