Friday, August 28, 2020

FX Strategy 28 Aug 2020

 
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FX Strategy 28 Aug 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and SEK are the top gainers today, up 0.93% and 0.66% versus the dollar while CAD and USD are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.364, up 2.6bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.77, up 1.6bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.389, up 1.4bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.047, down -0.2bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Hang Seng was trading at 25684.5, up 1.6%. The Kospi was trading at 2353.8, up 0.4%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 22882.65, down -1.41%. In the European equities, indices were trading stronger today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13120.4, up 0.18%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6017.05, up 0.28%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3335.65, up 0.14%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3500.38, up 0.43%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3334.0, up 0.3%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6016.5, up 0.16%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading mixed today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 45.48, up 0.86%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 42.87, down -0.39%.

 

Today we have already seen data releases from Germany, with GfK Consumer Confidence for September (Actual -1.8 v Forecast 2.5), German Import Prices MoM for July (Actual -4.6% v Forecast -4.7%) and YoY (Actual -4.6% v Forecast -4.7%). We have also seen French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 (Actual -13.8% v Forecast -13.8%) and Spanish Retail Sales for July MoM (Actual 1.1% v Forecast 3.6%) and YoY (Actual -3.9% v Forecast -1.7%). This morning we look forward to Italian Business Confidence (Previous 85.2 v Forecast 88) and Consumer Confidence (Previous 100 v Forecast 102) at 08:00 GMT with several EA data releases at 09:00 GMT for August with Consumer Confidence Final (Previous -15 v Forecast -14.7), Economic Sentiment (Previous 82.3 v Forecast 85.5), Industrial Sentiment (Previous -16.2 v Forecast -14), Services Sentiment (Previous -26.1 v Forecast -22) and Consumer Inflation Expectations (Previous 17.5 v Forecast 16). Business Confidence from Spain for August follows at 10:30 GMT (Previous -11.5 v Forecast -10).

 

The afternoon session sees Canadian and US data releases at 12:30 GMT, with Canadian GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 (Previous -2.1% v Forecast -12%) and Growth Rate Annualized Q2 (Previous -8.2% v Forecast -38%) alongside US Personal Income MoM (Previous -1.1% v Forecast -0.4%) and Personal Spending (Previous 5.6% v Forecast 1.2%). US Chicago PMI for August is released at 13:45 GMT (Previous 51.9 v Forecast 51). Finally we have US Michigan data for August at 14:00 GMT with Consumer Expectations Final (Previous 65.9 v Forecast 66.5), Consumer Sentiment Final (Previous 72.5 v Forecast 72.8) and Current Conditions Final (Previous 82.8 v Forecast 82.5).

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1829 for 1.1969
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1829 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1969 enter at 1.1875. Below 1.1829 to open 1.1755

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3216 for 1.334
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.3216 and we see a rise to 1.334 enter at 1.3257. Below 1.3216 to open 1.3147

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.88 for 106.29
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 105.88 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 106.29 enter at 106.02. Below 105.88 to open 105.19

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7295 for 0.733
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7295 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.733 enter at 0.7307. Below 0.7295 to open 0.7256

 
 
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