Friday, August 14, 2020

FX Strategy 14 Aug 2020

 
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FX Strategy 14 Aug 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and AUD are the top gainers today, up 0.12% and 0.03% versus the dollar while NZD and NOK are the top losers, down -0.17% and -0.17% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.042, up 0.1bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.415, down -0.5bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.242, down -0.5bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.703, down -1.4bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23289.36, up 0.17%. The Hang Seng was trading at 25249.75, up 0.08%. The Kospi was trading at 2407.49, down -1.23%. In the European equities, indices were trading weaker today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3319.85, down -0.69%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6135.4, down -0.81%. The DAX 30 was trading at 12931.4, down -0.48%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, SP500 Futures was trading at 3370.62, up 0.09%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3316.0, down -0.84%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6125.8, down -0.98%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 44.88, down -0.18%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 42.12, down -0.28%.

 

Earlier this morning we have already had data releases from China for July, with House Price Index YoY (Actual 4.8% v Forecast 5%), Industrial Production YoY (Actual 4.8% v Forecast 5.5%), Retail Sales (Actual -1.1% v Forecast 0.5%) and Unemployment Rate (Actual 5.7% v Forecast 5.7%). We have also seen the Inflation Rate YoY Final for July from France (Actual 0.8% v Forecast 0.8%) which was released at 06:45 GMT earlier today.

 

Looking forward to the morning session, at 09:00 GMT we have several EA data releases with GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2 (Previous -3.6% v Forecast -12.1%), GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est Q2 (Previous -3.1% v Forecast -15%), Balance of Trade for June (Previous €9.4B v Forecast €11B), Employment Change YoY Prel Q2 (Previous 0.4% v Forecast -1.8%) and Employment Change QoQ Prel Q2 (Previous -0.2% v Forecast -2%).

 

For this afternoon, all eyes are on July's US Retail Sales (Previous 7.5% v Forecast 2%) at 12:30 GMT, with US Industrial Production MoM for July (Previous 5.4% v Forecast 2.8%) following at 13:15 GMT. At 14:00 GMT we have US Business Inventories MoM for June (Previous -2.3% v Forecast -1.4%), US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Previous 72.5 v Forecast 71.1) and US Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (Previous 65.9 v Consensus 66.7) for August. No speakers are expected today.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1775 for 1.1858
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.1775 and we see a rise to 1.1858 enter at 1.1802. Below 1.1775 to open 1.1736

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3023 for 1.3118
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.3023 and we see a rise to 1.3118 enter at 1.3054. Below 1.3023 to open 1.2978

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 107.13 for 106.36
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 107.13 and we see a dip to 106.36 enter at 106.88. Above 107.13 to open 107.33

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7179 for 0.7126
Short-term view: AUDUSD resistance comes in at 0.7179 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 0.7126 enter at 0.7162. Above 0.7179 to open 0.7211

 
 
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