Thursday, August 13, 2020

FX Strategy 13 Aug 2020

 
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FX Strategy 13 Aug 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and EUR are the top gainers today, up 0.34% and 0.33% versus the dollar while NZD and CAD are the top losers, down -0.17% and -0.01% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker today. The US 10-year was trading at 0.665, down -0.8bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.458, down -0.9bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.032, down -0.9bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.217, down -2.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23249.61, up 1.78%. The Kospi was trading at 2437.53, up 0.21%. The Hang Seng was trading at 25207.0, down -0.15%. In the European equities, indices were trading weak today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3355.89, down -0.22%. The DAX 30 was trading at 13037.85, down -0.16%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6211.55, down -1.09%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, SP500 Futures was trading at 3369.12, down -0.03%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3352.0, down -0.3%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6205.2, down -0.85%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weak today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 42.51, down -0.37%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 45.26, down -0.37%.

 

Earlier today we have already seen July's Australian Unemployment Rate (Actual 7.5% v Forecast 7.7%) and Full-Time Employment Change (Actual 43.5K v Forecast -20K). We have also seen Q2 French Unemployment Rate (Actual 7.1% v Forecast 8.5%) and German data for July, with Inflation Rate YoY (Actual -0.1% v Forecast -0.1%), Wholesale Prices YoY (Actual -2.6% v Forecast -2.8%) and Wholesale Prices MoM (Actual 0.5% v Forecast 0.3%).

 

Looking forward to the afternoon trading session, at 12:00 GMT we have Inflation Rate YoY for July for India (Previous 6.09% v Forecast 6.2%) followed at 12:30 GMT by July data from the US – releases include Export Prices YoY (Previous -4.4% v Forecast -4.1%), Export Prices MoM (Previous 1.4% v Forecast 0.4%), Import Prices YoY (Previous -3.8% v Forecast -3.2%), Import Prices MoM (Previous 1.4% v Forecast 0.6%) alongside the weekly Initial Jobless (Previous 1186K v Forecast 1150K) and Continuing Claims (Previous 16107K v Forecast 15800K).

 

Later this evening we have the Interest Rate Decision from Mexico at 18:00 GMT (Previous 5% v Forecast 4.5%) with RBA Governor Lowe speaking at 23:30 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1772 for 1.188
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1772 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.188 enter at 1.1808. Below 1.1772 to open 1.1724

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3036 for 1.3098
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3036 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3098 enter at 1.3056. Below 1.3036 to open 1.3004

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 106.57 for 107.14
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 106.57 and we see a rise to 107.14 enter at 106.74. Below 106.57 to open 106.21

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7149 for 0.7189
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7149 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7189 enter at 0.7162. Below 0.7149 to open 0.7122

 
 
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