 | | Alexander Green
Chief Investment Strategist | Rarely in our nation's history have political views been more polarized - or more toxic. Political differences are inevitable, of course. But it's a mistake to turn bullish or bearish on the market based on which party is in power or who's in the White House. [Two-Time Hedge Fund Manager Is Sharing His "Singularity Investor Playbook" for You to Position Yourself at the Forefront of AI's Historic Moment. Take These Steps ASAP. ] During the Obama years, for instance, I had several conservative friends who shunned stocks because of their strenuous opposition to Obama's policies on taxes, spending, regulations, healthcare, and debt. I opposed many of these Obama policies myself. But it didn't affect my view of the market. Good thing. During Obama's two terms, the S&P 500 Index returned 235%. (And my Oxford Club portfolios did far better.) And President Trump served through a rip-roaring bull market - one that was dealing with a pandemic at the time. Yet I have a number of progressive friends who missed the train entirely. Let Good Sense Prevail Many point to what their favorite political pundits were saying before and after the 2016 election. In June of that year, for instance, former Clinton Treasury Secretary and Obama chief economist Larry Summers said, "Under Trump, I would expect a protracted recession… The damage would be felt far beyond the United States." In The New York Times just before the election, MIT economics professor Simon Johnson heartily agreed, "Trump would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession." Obama's former auto czar Steve Rattner said, "[If] Trump wins you will see a market crash of historic proportions… [The markets] are terrified of him." Not to be outdone, the day after the election, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman wrote, "It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?… A first-pass answer is never… So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight." You've gotta love that - a Nobel Prize-winning economist who foresaw a downturn with no end in sight and markets that would "never" recover. (Krugman may be the nation's most obvious and unsympathetic propagandist.) I'm not faulting these men for getting the economy and financial markets completely wrong. (Although, let's face it… they did.) I'm faulting them for letting their political views override their good sense. Give Credit Where Credit Is Due Speaking of which, President Trump might be careful about hogging the credit for the rally he experienced during his tenure. For one thing, stocks can get thrown into reverse in an eye blink. For another, while it's true that Trump's tax cuts and deregulatory policies were good for hiring, wages and capital spending, presidents have limited influence over the business cycle. Far more potent are inflation, interest rates, Fed policy, energy prices, currency fluctuations, worker productivity, consumer confidence, and corporate earnings. No matter. Voters will credit or blame the sitting president for the economy's performance. (Recall George H.W. Bush's rapid fall from a 90% approval rating following the Gulf War to an ignominious loss to the upstart from Arkansas, thanks to a tepid economy.) Look back through history, and you'll see stocks have delivered exceptional returns under both Republican and Democratic administrations. The S&P 500 returned 12.4% annually under Carter, 15.1% under Reagan, 15.5% under Eisenhower, 15.6% under Ford, 16.3% under Obama and 17.5% under Clinton. Only time will reveal the future president's legacy. Meanwhile, don't let your political views - whatever they may be - turn you away from the market. Commerce trumps politics. With the upcoming election, this advice is more important to follow than ever before. That's why I've created an urgent election blueprint that I'm calling "The Perfect Election Strategy." I've used it to outperform the market by up to 578% every year following an election since 2004. And on Tuesday, October 29, at 2 p.m., I'm going LIVE to reveal all the details of my strategy. Go here to sign up for this can't-miss event. Good investing, Alex Monday Takeaways: Ride the Tiger, but Mind the Claws  The markets simply want to go up. Money is flowing into the markets... and earnings are beating estimates. Ride the tiger, my friends. But don't forget that tigers have sharp claws. Get Shah's take here... Be Wary of Rising Commodities Prices  Something's wrong with the Fed's rate cut. The combination of rising bond yields and commodity prices is a red flag. Be wary... Buy This, Not That: A "Dirty" Player With an 11% Yield  Coal isn't going anywhere. And demand is rising. That's why we're looking at two major coal producers. But only one has a huge 11% yield. See it here. See it here.
Want more content like this? | | | | | Alexander Green Alexander Green is the Chief Investment Strategist of The Oxford Club and a primary contributor to Liberty Through Wealth. He has more than three decades of experience as an investment analyst, portfolio manager and financial writer. He directs a monthly financial newsletter, The Oxford Communiqué, along with three specialized trading services: The Insider Alert, The Momentum Alert and Oxford Microcap Trader. Alex is also the bestselling author of four books: The Gone Fishin' Portfolio, The Secret of Shelter Island, Beyond Wealth and An Embarrassment of Riches. | | | | 
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